Tin supply is tight in the short term, but is expected to ease.

On Monday, tin prices were in the doldrums. The closing price of the most-traded SHFE tin contract was 260,880 yuan/mt, down 0.45% from the previous day. The closing price of the most-traded LME tin contract was $32,150/mt, up 0.55% from the previous day.

Supply side, domestic tin ore and tin ingot supplies remained tight. However, in the coming months, with the resumption of operations at the Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the Manxiang tin mine in Myanmar, the supply pressure on tin ore is expected to gradually ease. According to the latest customs data, tin ore imports in March were 8,323 mt, down 4.8% MoM and 19.2% YoY. Affected by tight raw material supply and low processing fees, tin ingot production in April is expected to be 15,385 mt, down 8.3% MoM and 7.0% YoY.

Demand side, the operating rate of downstream enterprises remained high. However, due to tariff impacts, the willingness to restock has cooled somewhat. In March, driven by the "trade-in" policy for home appliances and the installation rush in the PV sector, orders for small and medium-sized solder enterprises in China significantly improved, with the total sample operating rate of tin solder rising to 75.81%. In April, policy dividends may keep the operating rate of solder enterprises at a high level. On April 22, the US imposed a tariff hike on solar products from four Southeast Asian countries, indirectly dragging down the consumption expectations for tin solder. Affected by this news, the willingness to restock among downstream tin enterprises has significantly weakened.

Inventory side, due to tariff impacts, the willingness to restock among downstream tin enterprises has significantly weakened, and tin inventory slightly decreased last week. In summary, the supply side of tin is expected to remain tight in the short term but with expectations of easing. As the impact of tariffs on the demand side gradually manifests, the center of tin prices may shift downward. Today's reference operating range for the most-traded domestic contract: 255,000-265,000 yuan/mt; for overseas LME tin: $31,000-33,000/mt.

(Source: Minmetals Futures)