ICSG: Global copper cathode market is expected to see a surplus of 289,000 mt and 209,000 mt this year and next year, respectively.

On April 28 (Monday), the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) held a meeting in Lisbon, Portugal, on April 25, 2025.

Global copper mine production is expected to increase by 2.3% in 2025 and by 2.5% in 2026.

In 2025, world mine production is projected to rise by 2.3% to 23.5 million mt, primarily driven by additional output from expansions at Kamoa (DRC) and Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia), as well as the start-up of the new Malmyz mine (Russia). These gains will be partially offset by expected declines in Australia, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan.

In 2026, production is expected to grow at a higher rate of 2.5%, supported by continued additions/expansions, anticipated improvements in output from Chile and Zambia, and a recovery in Indonesia from the production decline in 2025.

Over these two years, a series of smaller expansions and the start-up of some small- and medium-sized mines will also contribute to the increase in global production, particularly in the DRC, Brazil, Iran, Uzbekistan, Ecuador, Eritrea, Greece, Angola, and Morocco.

Global refined copper production is expected to grow by approximately 2.9% in 2025 and by 1.5% in 2026.

In 2025, refined copper production is projected to increase by about 2.9%, supported by ongoing capacity expansions in China and the start-up of new capacities in several other countries, notably Indonesia, India, and the DRC.

Overall, primary electrorefining production (from concentrates) is expected to increase by 3%, hydrometallurgical production by 3.3%, and secondary production (from scrap) by 2.2%.

In 2026, global refined copper production is expected to decline by 1.5%. Although refined production will continue to benefit from new and expanded capacities, the growth in primary electrorefining production is expected to be constrained by limited concentrate supply, partially offsetting the growth in hydrometallurgical and secondary (scrap) production.

Due to new and expanded capacities in several countries, hydrometallurgical production is expected to increase by 2.2% in 2026, while secondary refined production (from scrap) is anticipated to grow by 6.4%.

Global apparent refined copper usage is expected to increase by approximately 2.4% in 2025 and by 1.8% in 2026.

The usage growth rate has been revised downward from the Group's September 2024 forecast, given the uncertainties surrounding international trade policies that could weaken the global economic outlook and negatively impact copper demand.

Global refined copper usage growth is expected to be 2.4% in 2025 (down from 2.7% previously). China's usage is expected to grow by about 2% in 2025 and by 0.8% in 2026.

Asia will continue to be the main driver of global growth, while demand in other major copper-using regions (EU, Japan, US) remains sluggish.

However, overall, global usage is expected to continue to be supported by improvements in manufacturing activity in some key copper end-use sectors, the energy transition, urbanization, ongoing demand for digitalization (data centers), and the development of new information system capacities in India and some other countries.

The global refined copper balance forecast indicates a surplus of approximately 289,000 mt in 2025 and about 209,000 mt in 2026.

ICSG recognizes that global market balances may differ from forecasts due to many factors that could alter production and usage projections. In this regard, it should be noted that actual market balance outcomes have deviated from ICSG's market balance forecasts in recent instances due to unforeseen developments.

In studying its global market supply and demand forecasts, ICSG applies an apparent demand calculation method for China that does not cover changes in unreported inventories (State Reserves Bureau, producers, consumers, merchants/traders, bonded), which can be significant during stockpiling or destocking periods and may significantly alter the global supply-demand balance. China's apparent copper demand is based solely on reported data (production ± net trade / inventory changes at the Shanghai Futures Exchange).

ICSG expects a surplus of approximately 289,000 mt in 2025, slightly higher than the 194,000 mt surplus forecast in September last year. A surplus of about 209,000 mt is currently expected for 2026.

ICSG's next meeting will be held in Lisbon in October 2025.

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