SMM Alumina Morning Comment on April 28
Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2509 futures contract opened at 2,860 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,862 yuan/mt, a low of 2,817 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,830 yuan/mt, down 32 yuan/mt or 1.12%, with open interest at 224,000 lots.
Bauxite: As of April 28, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $80.12/mt, down $0.29/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was reported at $79/mt, down $1/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $80/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $72/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.
Industry Updates:
(1) Alumina Spot: On Monday, inquiries revealed that some alumina spot was tendered and purchased by aluminum plants in Xinjiang, with transaction prices ranging from approximately 3,160-3,220 yuan/mt delivered to the plant, mainly concentrated at 3,180-3,200 yuan/mt.
(2) Overseas Alumina Transactions: On April 23, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a price of $347.5/mt FOB Bunbury/Kwinana/Gladstone, Australia, with a May shipment schedule.
(3) Alumina Capacity Dynamics: From March to April 2025, alumina enterprises gradually began to face losses, and several alumina enterprises chose to conduct maintenance during this period. From late March to April, according to SMM, approximately 11.5 million mt of capacity underwent maintenance. Meanwhile, some alumina enterprises reported plans for maintenance in May. Since most enterprises conducted maintenance on roasting furnaces, the reduction in alumina production during the maintenance period could be partially compensated after the maintenance was completed. Therefore, further understanding and calculation are needed to assess the impact of maintenance on the monthly alumina production.
(4) Bauxite Port Arrivals and Departures: According to bauxite port data on April 25, the total weekly bauxite arrivals at domestic ports were 4.8612 million mt, an increase of 657,300 mt from the previous week. The total weekly bauxite departures from main ports in Guinea were 3.8181 million mt, an increase of 502,600 mt from the previous week. The total weekly bauxite departures from main ports in Australia were 389,200 mt, a decrease of 256,900 mt from the previous week. In mid-April, the production and shipment of individual miners in Guinea were affected. As of now, the situation remains unclear, and the impact needs to be continuously tracked and assessed. As of now, under this circumstance, there has been no significant trend of decrease in bauxite shipments from Guinea. The average weekly bauxite departures from main ports in Guinea were 3.859 million mt/week in April and 3.855 million mt/week in March, basically flat. Whether the total supply of Guinea bauxite will be affected requires continuous tracking and observation.
Basis Report: According to SMM data, on April 28, the SMM alumina index had a premium of 28 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.
Warrant Report: On April 28, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 3,001 mt from the previous trading day to 271,700 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in Shandong remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 3,307 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in Henan decreased by 601 mt from the previous trading day to 5,101 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 36,600 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in Gansu decreased by 1,200 mt from the previous trading day to 13,200 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang decreased by 1,200 mt from the previous trading day to 213,500 mt.
Overseas Market: As of April 28, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $348/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $20.50/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.32. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately 3,127 yuan/mt at domestic main ports, which is 233.51 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price. The alumina import window remained closed.
Summary:
Last week, some alumina refineries completed maintenance and resumed production. Meanwhile, news of new maintenance and production cuts emerged, with both increases and decreases in alumina operating capacity. Overall, the weekly operating capacity rebounded slightly. As of last Thursday, according to SMM statistics, the national alumina operating capacity was 83.62 million mt/year, up 740,000 mt/year WoW. Due to the concentrated occurrence of maintenance and production cuts, the alumina operating capacity has been lower than the theoretical demand for aluminum production for several consecutive weeks, tightening the supply of alumina spot. As a result, alumina spot prices stopped falling, with a slight rebound in north China. However, bauxite costs have eased. As of April 28, the SMM imported bauxite index fell to $80.12/mt, with the Guinea bauxite CIF average price falling by $1/mt to $79/mt in a single day. Subsequent tracking is needed for the progress of alumina maintenance capacity resumption, new capacity commissioning, and news of additional maintenance and production cuts. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate mainly.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make cautious decisions and not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
