Key Points from Securities Firms' Morning Meetings: Optimistic About Investment Opportunities in the Commercial Real Estate Sector in 2025

The market experienced volatile adjustments yesterday, with the three major indices dropping slightly. The total trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges was RMB 1.06 trillion for the day, a decrease of RMB 57.2 billion from the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, PEEK materials, gaming, banking, steel, and others led the gains, while Hainan, real estate, tourism, food, and others saw the largest declines. By the close of trading yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.62%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.65%.

At today's morning meeting of securities firms, Guotai Haitong Securities proposed prioritizing the allocation of top-tier securities firms with significant comprehensive advantages and stronger cross-border asset allocation capabilities. GF Securities believes that the central tendency of coal prices may decline in 2025, with leading companies expected to maintain overall stable profitability. Huatai Securities expressed optimism about investment opportunities in the commercial real estate sector in 2025.

Guotai Haitong Securities: Prioritize the allocation of top-tier securities firms with significant comprehensive advantages and stronger cross-border asset allocation capabilities

Guotai Haitong Securities stated that fixed-income proprietary trading, as a pillar business in the securities industry, urgently needs transformation in the new era. Changes in a single business should be viewed as one aspect of the industry's supply-side reform. During the transformation and exploration period, it is recommended to seek certainty amid uncertainty and prioritize the allocation of top-tier securities firms with significant comprehensive advantages and stronger cross-border asset allocation capabilities.

GF Securities: The central tendency of coal prices may decline in 2025, with leading companies expected to maintain overall stable profitability

GF Securities indicated that demand in the coal industry remained in the off-season in April, with coal prices generally weak. However, expectations for increased intensity of counter-cyclical regulatory policies to stabilize growth have begun to strengthen. Additionally, with the rebound in industrial demand, slower growth in production, and an expected decline in imported coal, coal prices are anticipated to gradually rebound after inventory pullbacks. Regarding companies, the central tendency of coal prices may decline in 2025. Considering the relative stability of long-term agreement prices for leading companies and generally effective cost control, they are expected to maintain overall stable profitability.

Huatai Securities: Optimistic about investment opportunities in the commercial real estate sector in 2025

Huatai Securities pointed out that commercial real estate faced challenges in 2024, but top-tier enterprises outperformed the industry in terms of both scale expansion and operational efficiency. Optimism about investment opportunities in the commercial real estate sector in 2025 is based on the following reasons: 1) The consumer market is expected to continue recovering under policy catalysts, providing a more solid end-use market foundation for commercial real estate; 2) Consumption REITs drive operators to achieve asset monetization, liquidity and management premiums, and extension of asset-light operational space; 3) The relative management advantages of top-tier operators continue to improve, strengthening their alpha attributes and continuing the logic of increased concentration; 4) Valuation advantages are prominent, with the valuation of the held property sector basically equivalent to its market capitalization. The market capitalization of the development business sector for some asset-heavy operators has fallen below the reasonable valuation of the held property sector, further enhancing corporate investment value.