SMM HRC Daily: Production Rumors Boost Sentiment, But Beware of Price Corrections

[SMM HRC Daily Review] Rumors of Production Restrictions Repeatedly Speculated, Beware of Sentiment Fading and Price Corrections

There was no futures market guidance today. However, influenced by the rally in the night session on Friday, the spot price surged significantly in the morning session today. As trading performance was average in the afternoon, the price slightly declined. In terms of supply, there were still relatively few new rolling line maintenance activities at steel mills, and HRC supply fluctuated at a high level. Demand side, despite the high spot price today, the wait-and-see sentiment among end-users remained relatively robust, and the overall demand release was cautious. Cost side, steel mills may have expectations of raw material restocking before the holiday, but with limited pig iron output growth, the raw material support is neutral. Overall, the imbalance in the HRC fundamentals is relatively small, and there are still expectations for end-user restocking before the holiday. The "rumors of production restrictions" have been repeatedly speculated in the market, making it difficult to discern their authenticity. In the short term, it should be viewed as an improvement in sentiment, and it is not advisable to excessively chase long positions. Beware of sentiment fading and prices returning to low levels.