Q1 2026 Japan MJP (main ports) aluminum ingot premium is expected to rebound from the low of $86/mt in Q4 2025, with the center rising. The core logic stems from tightening supply in Asia triggered by the restructuring of global aluminum trade flows, coupled with catalysts from European carbon policies and structural demand support. The latest offers from leading smelters have already indicated an upward trend, but restocking constraints due to the end of Japan's fiscal year may limit the extent of the rebound. Detailed analysis is as follows:

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro Policy Direction Combined with Low Inventory Supports Aluminum Prices, Potential Trade Friction Risks Limit Upside Room] In summary, the positive macro policy direction and the reality of continuously declining low inventory have jointly built strong support below aluminum prices, boosting market sentiment. However, slow growth on the supply side and potential trade friction risks also limit the pace of rapid price increases. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate upward in the short term.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: SHFE Aluminum Prices Pull Back, Alloy Enterprises Actively Follow Suit] Spot side, yesterday SMM A00 aluminum spot prices rose 120 yuan/mt to 21,890 yuan/mt, while ADC12 prices rebounded 100 yuan/mt to 21,600 yuan/mt, recovering the previous day's losses. This week, aluminum prices saw their first rebound, to which the secondary aluminum market responded actively, with manufacturers generally raising offers by 100-200 yuan/mt. Raw material side, although aluminum scrap prices followed the decline in aluminum prices, leading to a slight weakening in cost support, they remained at a relatively high level amid tight supply. Demand side, performance showed a marginally weakening trend, and coupled with sharp fluctuations in aluminum prices, downstream enterprises' purchase willingness turned cautious, with market trading activity moderate. Considering the supply-demand pattern and cost factors, ADC12 aluminum alloy prices are expected to continue a sideways movement in the near term.

[SMM Analysis]Cost Support and Weakening Marginal Demand Intertwined, ADC12 Price Fluctuates at Highs in the Short Term

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Dovish Macro Boost and Low Inventory Support SHFE Aluminum to Trade in a Narrow Range in the Short Term] On the macro front, the US Fed cut interest rates for the third time this year as expected and launched bond purchases in the early hours of Thursday Beijing time. Powell's remarks were more dovish than expected, leading to a decline in the US dollar and a rebound in base metals, with short-term macro sentiment turning positive.

[ SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Interest Rate Cut Expectations Face Reality Check Against Off-Season Pressures; Aluminum Price Upside Momentum Limited at High Levels ] In summary, strong macro expectations have built a solid bottom support for aluminum prices, but seasonal fundamental pressures are gradually emerging. Amid the interplay of these factors, the upside room for aluminum prices is constrained by weakening spot aluminum fundamentals and cautious downstream sentiment. Risks of a pullback from elevated levels warrant caution.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Weaker Demand Suppresses Spot Trading, Alloy Prices Remain in the Doldrums] Spot side, today SMM A00 aluminum spot prices fell 110 yuan/mt to 21,770 yuan/mt, and ADC12 prices dropped 100 yuan/mt to 21,500 yuan/mt. Driven by the pullback from high aluminum prices, cost support from aluminum scrap continued to weaken, with overall pressure shifting downward, and the spot market showed a pattern of being in the doldrums. Demand side, current demand showed signs of weakening, and aluminum futures fell sharply this week, causing downstream enterprises' wait-and-see sentiment to heat up again, with market trading activity moderate. Considering supply-demand and cost side impacts, ADC12 aluminum alloy prices were expected to continue a fluctuating trend in the short term.

【SMM Analysis】Aluminium Import Tariffs in Mexico: Previewing Upcoming Changes