The order intake in May temporarily slowed down the fluctuations in the production schedule. The production lines of top-tier enterprises maintained full capacity. Attention should be paid to the pace of order fulfillment after the holiday. [SMM Analysis]

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SMM April 25 News:

PV Aluminum Extrusion: In the PV extrusion sector, leading enterprises reported that despite the pullback in installation rush demand at month-end, production lines remained stable due to the continuous influx of new orders in May. Notably, although the volume of new orders declined compared to the peak season levels in March-April, the overall decrease was controllable. The actual production pace will need further verification after the Labour Day holiday.

Raw Material Prices: During the period (April 21-25, 2025), the average spot price of aluminum shifted upward, with the SMM A00 weekly average price at 19,750 yuan/mt, up 1.01% from the previous week. Overall, the domestic macro environment remained favorable, and yesterday, Trump's stance on China regarding his signature tariff policy showed signs of easing, improving market sentiment and stimulating a rebound in the futures market. On the fundamental side, the cost side of the aluminum industry remained stable, while the demand side showed signs of structural recovery, driven by the continuous influx of new orders in May, which boosted pre-holiday stocking demand for aluminum ingots and billets. The reduction in domestic aluminum ingot inventory supported aluminum prices, but suppliers actively sold at higher prices, leading to a pullback in spot premiums. SMM believes that whether the US-China trade can achieve substantial easing requires further observation. In the short term, the imbalance between bullish and bearish factors remains evident. As the transition between the off-peak and peak seasons approaches and the PV installation rush nears its end, downstream aluminum orders are expected to decline, limiting the potential for a significant upward movement in aluminum prices. Domestic aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate before the holiday. The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2505 contract is expected to trade between 19,600-20,200 yuan/mt next week, while LME aluminum is expected to trade between $2,370-2,470/mt.

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