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Recently, influenced by the continuous rise in futures prices and the increase in the MHP coefficient, the MHP coefficient (relative to the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) has reached 84%-85%, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP is $12,634/mt (Ni contained).
Demand side, some nickel salt producers still have raw material restocking needs in Q2, but due to the persistently high MHP pricing coefficient, nickel salt companies remain cautious and have temporarily delayed their procurement processes. Supply side, recent flood disasters have limited MHP production in Indonesia, and a significant impact is expected in April. Cost side, Indonesia's latest PNBP royalty policy is tentatively set to take effect on the 26th, which will directly increase the sales cost of nickel ore. Market feedback indicates that the price increase for hydrometallurgical nickel ore purchases caused by this policy has already been reflected in early April. Additionally, the royalty on hydrometallurgical ore itself is relatively low, and for a 1.3-grade nickel ore, it requires an additional payment of about $0.75/wmt compared to before the PNBP amendment. Therefore, the PNBP policy is expected to have a relatively limited impact on MHP production costs in the short term.
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