Support from the raw material side has loosened, and the weakening trend of aluminum fluoride prices has become evident. [SMM Fluoride Weekly Review]

SMM April 24 News:

This week, aluminum fluoride enterprises focused on order delivery, with mediocre market transactions, and aluminum fluoride prices remained stable. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 10,500-10,800 yuan/mt, and SMM cryolite prices were quoted at 6,500-7,500 yuan/mt.

From the perspective of raw material supply, the fluorite market is currently in a stage of intense supply and demand competition, with prices fluctuating at highs. The supply side is supported by mining restrictions and low inventory, but downstream acceptance of high prices is low, leading to cautious procurement and sluggish transactions. The demand side is affected by a weak refrigerant season, hydrogen fluoride quota constraints, and compressed corporate profits, resulting in overall weak demand that suppresses price increases. Expectations for a price drop in hydrogen fluoride in May have strengthened, and fluorite prices may enter a period of downward fluctuation. According to the latest SMM data, the current average delivery-to-factory price of 97% fluorite powder is 3,633 yuan/mt, remaining stable compared to last Thursday. Additionally, aluminum hydroxide prices saw a slight rebound this week. SMM data shows that the ex-factory average price of aluminum hydroxide was 1,876 yuan/mt, up 0.59% from last Thursday. Meanwhile, the price of sulphuric acid raw materials fell significantly, leading to a weakening in sulphuric acid prices. Overall, the support from the raw material side for aluminum fluoride is beginning to loosen.

From the supply side, the raw material market has shown a downward trend recently, alleviating production pressure on enterprises to some extent, and profitability has improved but remains weak. Currently, the number of enterprises in shutdown for maintenance is still high, and in the short term, the supply side has not shown an increase. From the demand side, aluminum enterprises' operating rates are stable with some increase, although the overall increment is limited, demand still exists.

Brief Review: Within the week, the aluminum fluoride market saw mediocre trading. The continuous decline in the raw material market has weakened the price support for aluminum fluoride. Although corporate profitability has slightly improved, it is still not ideal. Currently, the industry's operating rate is low, and short-term market supply is unlikely to increase. Downstream aluminum enterprises are only maintaining just-in-time procurement, with no increase in demand. According to SMM's forecast, aluminum fluoride prices are expected to show a stable to weak trend in the short term.