SMM Global Copper Foil Industry Landscape and Market Outlook for 2025

On April 24, at the CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference & Copper Industry Expo - Copper-Based New Materials High-Quality Development Forum, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., SMM Metal Trading Center, and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., with Jiangxi Copper Corporation and Yingtan Land Port Holdings Co., Ltd. as the main sponsors, Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. as the special co-organizer, and Xinhuang Group and Zhongtiaoshan Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. as co-organizers, Yu Shaoxue, Senior Manager of SMM Industry Research, discussed the theme of "Global Copper Foil Industry Landscape and Market Outlook for 2025."

1. Current Development Status of the Global Copper Foil Market

Global Copper Foil Capacity Distribution in 2024

As of the end of 2024, global copper foil capacity stood at 2.4202 million mt, including 1.436 million mt of lithium battery copper foil and 985,000 mt of electronic circuit copper foil. China's copper foil capacity was 1.94 million mt, accounting for 80% of the global total capacity. Major copper foil production regions globally include Jiangxi, Guangdong, and Taiwan provinces in China.

Analysis of Global Copper Foil Capacity and Production from 2023-2025E

Global capacities for electronic circuit copper foil and lithium battery copper foil have shown a year-on-year increase, with lithium battery copper foil capacity expanding rapidly. As of the end of 2024, global lithium battery copper foil capacity was 1.44 million mt, with production at 840,000 mt, up 25.4% YoY. Global electronic circuit copper foil capacity was 980,000 mt, with production at 590,000 mt, up 5% YoY.

►SMM Analysis:

In recent years, the rapid expansion of lithium battery copper foil capacity has led to severe overcapacity, triggering price wars, intensifying market competition, and increasing operational pressures on enterprises. Future capacity growth is expected to slow significantly.

The electronic circuit copper foil industry has a relatively stable foundation, with slower market expansion. However, there is a lack of capacity for flexible PCB copper foil and high-frequency, high-speed circuit copper foil, leading to reliance on imports.

Downstream Raw Materials Saw Inventory Buildup and Copper Foil Operating Rates Slowed Down in Q2 2025

SMM forecasts that in April 2025, the overall operating rate of copper foil enterprises will be 72.77%, up 0.95 percentage points MoM and 1.86 percentage points YoY. The operating rate for lithium battery copper foil is expected to be 69.77%, up 0.39 percentage points MoM and 2.47 percentage points YoY. The operating rate for electronic circuit copper foil is expected to be 78.60%, up 2.04 percentage points MoM and 1.07 percentage points YoY.

Tariffs to Impact Medium and Long-Term Downstream Consumption

In March 2025, SMM's battery cell inventory was 216.0 GWh, up 1.6% MoM, with further inventory buildup expected in April.

►SMM Analysis:

End-use demand has picked up, with increased production of both LFP and ternary battery cells. In the long term, affected by policy disruptions from China and the US, expectations for NEV and energy storage demand have been revised downward.

In March-April, end-use demand recovered to pre-holiday levels, with increased production and shipments of battery cells and a decline in the inventory-to-sales ratio. In May, US reciprocal tariffs are expected to impact some end-use demand, with battery cell inventory expected to continue building up and limited room for growth in lithium battery copper foil operating rates.

US Tariffs to Impact Global Automotive Supply Chain

In 2024, China's NEV exports to the US accounted for less than 2% of China's total NEV exports, but the US was China's largest battery export destination, which will suppress lithium battery consumption.

Optimistic Expectations for the NEV Industry Decline Amid Tariff Impacts

Under scenarios such as the US imposing reciprocal tariffs globally, SMM has revised downward its auto sales expectations for the US in 2025. However, the Chinese market remains relatively optimistic amid efforts to boost domestic demand and enhance internal circulation.

►SMM Analysis:

Chinese Market: With the gradual implementation of national and local subsidy policies and trade-in programs, automotive market has shown signs of warming up.

Overseas Market: As European, Japanese, and South Korean NEV exports to the US are also affected by tariffs, SMM has revised downward its growth expectations for US NEV sales to 3% (from a previous forecast of 6%).

China's Copper Foil Industry in an Era of Fierce Cut-Throat Competition, with Processing Fees Falling Below Cost Lines

With the continuous release of new capacity, severe overcapacity has emerged, intensifying market competition and cut-throat competition. Enterprises have lowered processing fees to compete for orders, leading to a continuous decline in copper foil processing fees.

►SMM Analysis:

Accelerating industry restructuring and capacity exit.

Cost reduction and efficiency improvement, along with industrial innovation.

The Copper Foil Industry Entered a "Painful Period" in Late 2023, with Enterprises Generally Shifting from Profit to Loss

With the continuous release of new capacity, severe overcapacity has emerged, intensifying market competition and cut-throat competition. Enterprises have lowered processing fees to compete for orders, with revenue growth not translating into profit growth due to severe supply-demand imbalances in the copper foil market.

►SMM Analysis:

Looking ahead to 2025, on the one hand, with the continued rapid growth in lithium battery demand, copper foil processing fees are expected to rebound slightly. On the other hand, the industry will enter a phase of survival of the fittest, with potential M&A events and the elimination of some capacity.

Tariffs Impact Export Demand in the Copper Foil Industry Chain

From raw materials to semi-finished products to terminals, the entire copper foil industry chain relies on exports. Relevant tariff policies at home and abroad will have a certain impact on copper foil consumption.

2. Global Lithium Battery Copper Foil Development Trends from 2025-2030E

Analysis of Lithium Battery Copper Foil Thickness Changes and Future Lithium Battery Production

With the increasing demand for driving range in NEVs, thinning is the main trend, but the amount of copper foil used per GWh will also decrease significantly.

►SMM Analysis:

NEV Sector: Driven by the EU's "2030 Climate Target," battery capacity construction in Europe is accelerating. Due to tariffs, the capacity utilization rate of the localized supply chain in the US will also increase, but supply chain restructuring will take time.

Energy Storage Sector: Driven by large projects in China, the US, Europe, and the Middle East, the global proportion of wind and solar power paired with energy storage will continue to rise.

Consumer Electronics Sector: With the emergence of new products such as AI phones and AI tablets, along with the implementation of relevant subsidy policies, the consumer electronics industry has shown signs of recovery.

Global Lithium Battery Copper Foil Production Growth to Slow Down Significantly

With the continuous development of NEVs, energy storage systems, and portable electronic devices, lithium battery copper foil will continue to show scale growth in the future, with capacity utilization rates continuing to improve.

Lithium Battery Copper Foil Market Faces Severe Supply-Demand Imbalance

3. Global Electronic Circuit Copper Foil Development Trends from 2025-2030E

In the future, with the expansion of new industries, the growth rate of high-value-added products will increase significantly.

The rise of AI PCs and AI phones will also bring new market space to the copper clad laminate (CCL) industry, driving the development of special substrate CCLs.

►SMM Analysis:

With the continuous development of industries such as communications, automotive, and AI, along with technological advancements, the global CCL sales market has certain growth potential.

In the future, high-value-added products will grow rapidly. For example, upgrades in AI servers and switches will drive demand for high-speed CCLs, while the rise of AI PCs and AI phones will also drive the development of special substrate CCLs.

After experiencing a downturn in previous years, the global electronic circuit copper foil market is warming up.

It is expected that by 2030, driven by industries such as IDC construction, data communications, consumer electronics, and NEVs, global electronic circuit copper foil production will reach 950,000 mt.

In the future, the pace of domestic substitution for high-end electronic circuit copper foil is accelerating.

Global Surplus of Electronic Circuit Copper Foil Will Ease

SMM predicts that after 2027, the global surplus of electronic circuit copper foil will significantly ease. The Chinese market will maintain a stable recovery with strong policy support, while emerging markets such as Southeast Asia have significant growth potential.

►SMM Analysis:

Communication Industry: The continuous development of 5G communication and the advancement of R&D in 6G technology will drive the continuous upgrading of communication infrastructure, leading to an increase in the share of high-frequency and high-speed copper clad laminate (CCL);

Automotive Electronics Industry: The increasing complexity of automotive electronic systems and the development of technologies such as autonomous driving, smart cockpits, and vehicle-road coordination have significantly increased the demand for PCBs in automobiles, thereby driving the steady growth in demand for copper clad laminate (CCL).