Overseas macro sentiment appeared slightly mild, and copper prices rose overnight. [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,325/mt, fluctuating slightly during the session, with the lowest point at $9,290/mt and the highest at $9,398.5/mt, finally closing at $9,354/mt, up $100 from the previous trading day, a gain of 1.08%. The trading volume was 16,520 lots, and the open interest was 281,354 lots, with a daily decrease of 1,495 lots, a drop of 0.53%. Overnight, the SHFE copper 2506 contract opened at 77,290 yuan/mt, with prices fluctuating upward during the session, reaching a high of 77,710 yuan/mt and a low of 77,150 yuan/mt, finally closing at 77,610 yuan/mt, up 660 yuan from the previous trading day, a gain of 0.86%. The trading volume was 56,001 lots, and the open interest was 168,372 lots, with a daily increase of 2,299 lots, a rise of 1.38%.

【SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary】News: (1) Amid optimistic expectations for US tariff trade negotiations, the US dollar index rebounded nearly 100 points from its low overnight, finally closing up 0.634%. (2) A package of policies to expand domestic demand is on the way! Guangdong, Shanghai, and other regions are planning to issue the "Action Plan to Boost Consumption."

Spot: (1) Shanghai: On April 22, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2505 contract were at a premium of 160-200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 180 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Copper prices returned to 77,000 yuan/mt, and the spot market did not show a lull due to the rush for exports and stockpiling for the May Day holiday. It is expected that spot quotes will remain firm during the SMM conference today.

(2) Guangdong: On April 22, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were at a premium of 200-250 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 225 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, both copper prices and premiums rose, while downstream purchasing desire declined compared to the previous trading day.

(3) Imported copper: On April 22, warrant prices were at $84-92/mt, QP May, with the average price up $2/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were at $98-108/mt, QP May, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was at $57-67/mt, QP May, with the average price up $2/mt from the previous trading day, with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in late April and early May. Due to the large destocking of bonded warrants last Friday, market inquiries and offers became more active after LME copper reopened. Domestic destocking led to rising premiums, and the spot import window opened. In the morning, it was heard that pyrometallurgy B/L for late April was offered at $100-105, and three brands for early May were offered at $115-120, QP May. Domestic warrant offers were around $100/5QP. EQ warrant offers for mid to late May at $70/5QP were hard to find transactions. Overall, market offers warmed up, and suppliers had a relatively certain expectation of future shortages.

(4) Secondary copper: On April 22, secondary copper raw material prices rose by 200 yuan/mt MoM. Guangdong bare bright copper prices were at 71,100-71,300 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,515 yuan/mt, up 242 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 805 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, some secondary copper rod enterprises have been standing firm on quotes to purchase secondary copper raw materials in preparation for stockpiling before the May Day holiday, with purchasing conditions being ideal. Additionally, secondary copper rod enterprises in Henan have completed the payment of the 2% assessed tax for the "reverse invoicing" transition year, and the actual invoice tax rate changes for local enterprises are still being calculated. SMM will continue to follow up on the invoice tax rate changes in Henan and other regions and promptly release the latest data.

(5) Inventory: On April 22, LME copper inventories decreased by 700 mt to 212,700 mt; on April 22, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 6,098 mt to 46,693 mt.

Price: On the macro front, Trump explicitly stated that he has no intention of firing Powell and said the stock market is doing well. The White House has released signals of easing tariffs, as follows: Fox News reported that the US Treasury Secretary is busy negotiating trade agreements with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India, but it is reported that the agreements will not be reached soon, and Vance, who is visiting India, has become the "chief executor" of the trade negotiations. The White House: 18 trade agreement proposals have been received, and trade team meetings with 34 countries will be held this week. US media: The White House is "close" to reaching tariff agreements with Japan and India, but finalizing the agreements may take months. Sources said that Trump is considering lowering US drug prices to international levels. Sources revealed that the US will strive to persuade the UK to cut car tariffs from 10% to 2.5% and will urge the UK to relax agricultural import regulations. With the release of signals of easing trade wars, copper prices rose overnight. On the fundamental side, the SMM Copper Industry Summit is being held in Nanchang, and market activity has decreased during the day, with suppliers standing firm on quotes, and copper premiums and discounts both rising, while downstream purchasing desire has also been somewhat suppressed. Overall, it is expected that copper prices will remain supported today.

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【The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.】