【SMM Cobalt and Lithium Morning Meeting Minutes】Cobalt Sulphate Prices Rise Slightly, Driving Up Prices of Various Precursor Products

Lithium Ore:

At the beginning of the week, lithium ore prices continued the slow decline trend from last week. On the spodumene side, the significant drop in lithium carbonate futures and spot prices has led to a continuous decrease in the acceptable price level for lithium concentrates among demand-side players, with both quotations and transaction prices continuing to decline, pushing the market price downward. On the lepidolite side, the cost inversion caused by the continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices has weakened the production and toll processing enthusiasm of smelters and traders, leading to a gradual decline in the psychological price level for lepidolite concentrates.

Lithium Carbonate:

At the beginning of the week, the price center of spot lithium carbonate transaction prices showed a significant downward trend. As downstream material plants currently have no positive expectations for future order production schedules, their willingness to stock up before the May Day holiday is weak, resulting in limited market transactions. Although upstream lithium chemical plants still maintain a sentiment to stand firm on quotes, the price support is clearly insufficient under the fundamental pressure of continuous oversupply of lithium carbonate. Meanwhile, with the relatively tight circulation of industrial-grade lithium carbonate, the price spread between industrial-grade and battery-grade lithium carbonate is also narrowing. Overall, lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating downward trend in the short term.

Lithium Hydroxide:

At the beginning of the week, lithium hydroxide prices showed an increasing trend of decline WoW. With relatively low market sentiment and slow demand growth, lithium chemical plants, due to high inventory, have increased their willingness to sell compared to the previous period, leading to a decline in spot transaction discounts between upstream and downstream players. Coupled with the continuous downward trend of lithium carbonate prices, lithium hydroxide prices are expected to further decline.

Refined Cobalt:

This week, spot refined cobalt prices fluctuated upward. Supply side, the current social inventory in the market is relatively high, but the inventory structure varies slightly. On the supply side, smelters' willingness to sell remains weak, and due to the high cost of raw materials, some smelters have reduced production. On the demand side, downstream producers' inquiry activity has increased, and some alloy plants have started restocking. Refined cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate upward next week.

Intermediate Products:

This week, spot cobalt intermediate product prices remained stable. On the supply side, upstream producers generally suspended spot quotations to ensure supply to long-term contract customers, with some long-term contract delivery expectations being extended, resulting in scarce overall market circulation. Downstream producers are actively inquiring, and raw material shortages are slightly prominent, but spot quotations remain high, leading to relatively weak actual transactions of cobalt intermediate products. Spot cobalt intermediate product prices are expected to fluctuate upward next week.

Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):

This week, spot cobalt sulphate prices remained stable. On the supply side, mainstream salt plants continue to maintain a strategy of standing firm on quotes, with some salt plants slightly experiencing raw material shortages, leading to a certain sentiment of holding back sales. On the demand side, downstream players remain cautious, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment, resulting in overall weak market transactions. Next week, the sentiment of holding back sales among salt plants is expected to further increase, and spot cobalt sulphate prices may fluctuate upward.

At the beginning of the week, cobalt chloride prices remained temporarily stable. On the supply side, smelters face tight raw material inventory, with most manufacturers refusing to sell at low prices and showing a strong willingness to stand firm on quotes. On the demand side, although overall market activity remains low, some manufacturers, to ensure stable production line operations, still maintain a certain procurement demand for cobalt chloride, keeping transaction prices stable at high levels. This week, suppliers' sentiment of holding back sales is expected to be strong, and cobalt chloride prices are likely to further rise.

Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Tetroxide):

At the beginning of the week, cobalt tetroxide prices remained temporarily stable, and market trading activity tended to stabilize. On the supply side, most smelters maintained previous quotations this week without significant price adjustments. On the demand side, the market shows some signs of weakness. As many manufacturers have completed necessary procurement in the early stage, the market's acceptance of high-priced cobalt tetroxide has decreased, and trading activity has correspondingly weakened. This week, the market is expected to continue to maintain a slow trend, and cobalt tetroxide prices may face downward pressure.

Nickel Sulphate:

On April 21, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 27,766 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate at 27,750-28,350 yuan/mt, and the average price remained stable compared to the previous day.
On the cost side, LME nickel prices have shown a significant rebound recently, driven by cost support and the easing of negative sentiment from US policies, strengthening the cost support range for nickel salt production. Under cost transmission, nickel salt plants' production cost pressure continues to rise. On the supply side, nickel salt plants' available nickel salt for sale is tight this month, with overall industry inventory levels at low levels. Affected by the continuous high operation of the MHP coefficient and its price, nickel salt plants' sentiment to stand firm on quotes remains. On the demand side, most precursor plants have completed raw material stocking for April, and with the arrival of the May procurement cycle, market inquiries have become active this week. Downstream enterprises' acceptance of nickel salt prices has slightly increased. Looking ahead, based on tight raw material supply, solid cost support, and sustained downstream demand, nickel salt prices are expected to show a mild upward trend in the short term.

Ternary Cathode Precursor:

On Monday, prices of 5-series for consumer electronics, 6-series for consumer electronics, and 8-series for NEV products in the ternary cathode precursor market showed a slight rebound. In terms of raw material costs, nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices remained stable, while cobalt sulphate prices showed a slight increase, driving the prices of various series of precursor products to rebound. On the demand side, recent market demand has been generally mediocre. Although the US tariff hike policy has not yet had a significant impact on the domestic precursor market, the ternary cathode material market lacks new demand drivers, and the market continues to execute production schedules and orders as planned, with overall demand in April expected to be similar to March. In terms of product models, mid-nickel product demand is relatively good this month, and the market share of 6-series ternary cathode precursors is expected to increase. On the supply side, as precursor products have long been in a state of cost inversion, enterprises have a strong willingness to stand firm on quotes, and transaction prices remain relatively firm. Affected by the significant market fluctuations this year, NEV precursor manufacturers generally no longer sign long-term (e.g., one year or half a year) orders, instead adopting monthly negotiated discounts. Meanwhile, manufacturers generally use a model of separately negotiating and settling discount coefficients for nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and manganese sulphate. For the consumer precursor market, spot transactions still dominate. This week, sulphate prices are expected to rebound slightly, and precursor prices are expected to rise slightly with the increase in raw material prices.

Ternary Cathode Material:

On Monday, ternary cathode material prices showed a slight decline. In terms of raw materials, nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices remained stable, while cobalt sulphate prices showed a slight increase, but not enough to offset the downward pressure on ternary cathode material prices caused by the decline in lithium salt prices. Current market supply mainly relies on previously signed long-term contracts, with some enterprises having raised relevant discount coefficients; for spot transactions, manufacturers generally adopt a method of separately negotiating discounts for raw materials such as nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate for settlement. In terms of production and order execution, as the direct export proportion of large NEV ternary cathode materials and their downstream ternary battery cell products to the US is low, the market generally believes that the recent US tariff hike policy will have limited impact on overall demand in the short term. Current order execution and production schedules are proceeding as planned, with Q2 demand expected to rebound compared to Q1. For small NEV and consumer ternary cathode materials, as their end-use products have a high export proportion to the US, subsequent demand may face some downward risks. Considering that Japan, South Korea, and Europe are the main export markets for domestic ternary cathode materials and their downstream battery cell products, the market is currently paying close attention to whether tariff policies between China and Europe, Japan, and South Korea will be adjusted against the backdrop of international situation changes. In terms of product structure, mid-nickel ternary cathode material demand has increased this month, and the market share of 6-series ternary cathode materials is expected to further expand. In terms of prices, ternary cathode material prices are expected to show slight fluctuations this week with the volatility of raw material prices.

LFP:

This week, LFP prices showed no significant changes overall, as on the raw material side, lithium carbonate prices remained basically stable this week; on the other hand, processing fees also showed no significant changes this week. Market-wise: On the supply side, material plants maintained stable production this week, with operating rates similar to March, and recent market exchanges revealed no significant increase in demand expectations for April and May. On the demand side, downstream battery cell plant demand remained stable, with a slight increase compared to March, but the increase was small. In terms of price settlement, starting from April, material plants will renegotiate processing fees with battery cell plants for Q2.

Iron Phosphate:

Recently, the iron phosphate market has shown a relatively stable trend. However, after entering April, some downstream LFP production orders were adjusted downward, leading to unmet demand expectations for upstream iron phosphate and industrial-grade MAP. Meanwhile, upstream phosphorus resource prices remained stable, while ferrous sulphate prices showed some degree of loosening. Nevertheless, April to May remains a critical period for Q2 volume. During this period, market competition may further intensify, and the possibility of price wars increasing cannot be ruled out.

LCO:

This week, LFP prices showed no significant changes overall, as on the raw material side, lithium carbonate prices remained basically stable this week; on the other hand, processing fees also showed no significant changes this week. Market-wise: On the supply side, material plants maintained stable production this week, with operating rates similar to March, and recent market exchanges revealed no significant increase in demand expectations for April and May. On the demand side, downstream battery cell plant demand remained stable, with a slight increase compared to March, but the increase was small. In terms of price settlement, starting from April, material plants will renegotiate processing fees with battery cell plants for Q2.

Anode:

This week, artificial graphite prices remained stable. On the supply and demand side, downstream battery cell plant production schedules showed no significant improvement WoW, so the overall operating rate of the anode market also remained basically flat WoW; on the cost side, graphitisation tolling service prices were relatively rigid, and coke prices showed a fluctuating trend, resulting in relatively stable anode costs this week. However, as most raw materials used for artificial graphite anodes were purchased during previous high-price periods, artificial graphite anode prices remained firm this week. Looking ahead, affected by tariff policies, downstream battery cell demand for artificial graphite anode materials is expected to show a shrinking trend, while costs may also rise due to tariff impacts. Under the interaction of supply-demand relationships and costs, artificial graphite prices are expected to remain relatively stable.
This week, the price of natural graphite anode material remained stable. On the supply and demand side, there was no significant fluctuation WoW. Cost side, the price of upstream raw materials declined this week. However, due to the lag in production, the price of natural graphite remains relatively stable. Looking ahead, downstream demand may decline under the impact of tariffs, and the processing of natural graphite anode material is expected to decrease slightly. Separator: This week, the price of lithium battery separator materials remained stable. The mainstream quotations for wet-process separators (5um/7um/9um) were 1.59 yuan, 0.82 yuan, and 0.75 yuan, respectively. The mainstream quotations for dry-process separators (12um/16um) were 0.46 yuan and 0.43 yuan. Supply side, with the completion of the resumption of work and production in the industry chain in March, the capacity utilization rate has recovered, and production scheduling in April is expected to increase slightly. Demand side, the downstream demand for NEV and ESS continues to grow, which will promote the procurement of separators by battery cell manufacturers. In terms of price, as the previous separator price has been close to the cost line, the price of wet-process separators is expected to remain stable in the near term, while the price of dry-process separators has an upward trend. Electrolyte: This week, the price of electrolyte remained stable. Cost side, the prices of core raw materials such as LiPF6, solvents, and additives declined, leading to an overall reduction in the manufacturing cost of electrolyte. Demand side, the recovery of downstream new energy battery market demand lags behind expectations, and end-users maintain a cautious stockpiling strategy. The current procurement demand for electrolyte shows a phased stabilization feature. Supply side, major producers continue to adopt the "produce based on sales" model and conservative production scheduling strategies, while the operating rate of small and medium-sized producers remains low. Comprehensive analysis suggests that the market price of electrolyte will be constrained by the unchanged supply and demand fundamentals in the short term, and is expected to maintain a narrow range-bound fluctuation. Sodium-ion battery: This week, the sodium-ion battery market developed steadily. Huayang Group's sodium-ion battery ESS project accelerated, Chuanyi upgraded its sodium-ion battery products and achieved mass production, and the application of sodium-ion batteries in ESS and logistics fields accelerated. CATL successfully developed the second-generation sodium-ion battery, which can discharge at -40°C and is expected to be launched in 2025. With technological advancements and capacity expansion, the cost of sodium-ion batteries is expected to further decrease, and the future prospects in stationary ESS and other fields are broad. Recycling: Supply side, the prices of lithium chemicals, nickel salts, and cobalt salts fluctuated this week. However, the psychological selling price of grinding mills and traders remained unchanged. This week, the coefficients of ternary and LCO black mass and the lithium point of LFP remained stable. Taking ternary pole piece black mass as an example, the current coefficient is around 75-78%, with an average coefficient of 76.5%. Due to policy changes such as overseas tariff hikes and the short-term supply and demand impact of slight inventory buildup of lithium chemicals, the price of lithium chemicals continued to decline on Monday, and most wet-process plants stopped purchasing or lowered quotations. Cost side, the prices of nickel, cobalt, and lithium chemicals fluctuated this week, but overall showed a slight decline, so the profit margins of ternary and LCO scrap markets remain below the surplus line. Currently, most wet-process enterprises still report being in an inverted situation. Downstream and end-users: This week, the price of DC-side battery cabins fluctuated slightly. The average price of 5MWh DC-side battery cabins was 0.43 yuan/Wh, and the average price of 3.44/3.77MWh DC-side battery cabins was 0.438 yuan/Wh. The US continues to impose tariff sanctions on China, but recently ESS projects have been scheduled on demand, and the price of DC-side battery cabins remains stable. On April 14, the winning bid result for the EPC general contracting project of the Yecheng 200MW/800MWh grid-forming ESS power station in Xinjiang Kashi Yecheng region was announced. The bid winner quoted 861.52 million yuan, with a unit price of 1.077 yuan/Wh after conversion. Order to view SMM new energy product spot historical prices. Click to view SMM new energy industry chain database. News: [Dazhong Mining: The Jiada lithium mine in Sichuan will achieve a certain scale of by-product raw ore sales in 2025] Dazhong Mining stated at the 2024 performance meeting held today that the company has anchored the business goal of increasing reserves and production this year, and will focus on promoting the expansion and technological transformation of the two mines of Jinrisheng Mining. At the same time, the company is fully promoting the infrastructure work of the Jizhushan lithium mine in Hunan and will focus on handling the transition of the first mining area of the Jiada lithium mine in Sichuan. In 2025, a certain scale of by-product raw ore sales will be achieved. In terms of capital expenditure planning, the construction of the Jizhushan lithium mine in Hunan, the construction of the Jiada lithium mine in Sichuan, and the technological transformation and expansion projects of the Zhouyoufang iron mine, Chongxinji iron mine, and Guyang Hejiao iron mine will become the core areas of capital investment. [CATL launches the second-generation Shenxing ultra-fast charging battery, with a range of over 520 km after 5 minutes of charging] CATL released the second-generation Shenxing ultra-fast charging battery. According to reports, this LFP battery has a range of 800 km, a peak charge rate of nearly 12C, and a peak charging power of over 1.3 MW, achieving "5 minutes of charging, over 520 km of range." [Cui Dongshu: Automobile exports will reach a super high level in 2025, and lithium-ion battery exports will basically maintain a monthly stable level of 5 billion US dollars] Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Car Association, stated in an article on his personal official account that data shows that China's import and export scale in 2025 will be stable with growth, and the development quality will be optimized with improvement. The export growth rate has slowed down compared to previous years. Among them, automobile exports in 2025 reached a super high level, and auto parts also hit a record high, both achieving super strong growth, with motorcycle exports showing strong growth. This year, lithium-ion battery exports basically maintained a monthly stable level of 5 billion US dollars, compared to the continuous upward trend last year. SMM New Energy Research Team Cong Wang 021-51666838 Rui Ma 021-51595780 Ziya Lin 86-2151666902 Disheng Feng 021-51666714 Yanlin Lyu 021-20707875 Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711 Zihan Wang 021-51666914 Jie Wang 021-51595902 He Zhang 021-20707850 Haohan Zhang 021-51666752 Yang Xu 021-51666760 Bolin Chen 021-51666836 Mengqi Xu 021-20707868