SMM: The Penetration Rate of All-Solid-State Batteries May Reach Around 9% by 2035, Industry Development Requires Collaboration Across the Entire Industry Chain!

At the 2025 (10th) New Energy Industry Expo - All-Solid-State Battery Prospect Technology Forum hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., Zhu Jian, Senior Consulting Project Manager at SMM, shared insights on the topic "Breaking the Ice and Reconstructing All-Solid-State Batteries - A Systematic Revolution from Materials to Applications." He discussed the development prospects of all-solid-state batteries, the challenges faced during their development, and the progress of key upstream raw materials. He stated that the global penetration rate of all-solid-state batteries is expected to be around 0.1% in 2025, 4% in 2030, and 9% in 2035. The development prospects of solid-state batteries are broad. Why do we need solid-state batteries? - Safety and energy density. How fast will solid-state batteries grow in the future? (1/2) - Global all-solid-state battery penetration is expected to approach 10% by 2035. SMM predicts that the annual compound growth rate of lithium battery demand in the global NEV industry will be around 11% in 2024, 27% in the ESS industry, and 10% in the consumer electronics sector. By 2030, global lithium battery demand is expected to reach approximately 2,800 GWh. In terms of global all-solid-state battery penetration, SMM expects it to be around 0.1% in 2025, 4% in 2030, and 9% in 2035. How fast will solid-state batteries grow in the future? (2/2) - Consumer scenarios will lead the breakthrough, with EVs having the greatest potential. SMM compared the future growth rates of solid-state batteries in the NEV, ESS, and consumer electronics (3C digital, eVOTL) sectors and found that the penetration rate in the consumer electronics sector is expected to reach around 12% by 2030, leading the breakthrough of 10%. SMM believes that due to volume constraints, 3C digital consumer batteries require higher energy density, and factors such as user experience upgrades make them a testing ground for the commercialization of solid-state batteries, leading to a penetration rate breakthrough of 10%. The ESS sector is highly sensitive to battery cell costs, and only some scenarios with lower price sensitivity and extreme emphasis on safety will use solid-state cells, resulting in limited demand in the short term. The penetration rate of solid-state batteries in the ESS sector is expected to be around 2% by 2030. In the new energy battery sector, the penetration rate is expected to reach around 5% by 2030. High-end EVs demand high safety and long driving range, making solid-state batteries a key choice. However, further long-term penetration rate increases depend on scaling and cost reduction. What are the different routes for solid-state batteries? - Oxide/Polymer/Sulfide. They are divided into oxide, polymer, and sulfide: sulfide performs best overall but needs to overcome cost issues. What will the market size of each technical route be in the future? - Sulfide will gradually become the mainstream route. SMM compiled the market size of solid-state batteries with different technical routes globally and expects the sulfide route to account for around 43% by 2035, gradually becoming the mainstream route. Currently, many industry chain companies, including BYD, CATL, Nissan, and SK, have laid out the sulfide all-solid-state route. However, the development of solid-state batteries still faces numerous challenges. What challenges do solid-state batteries currently face? - Supply chain. What challenges do solid-state batteries currently face? - Cost and economics. The production cost of all-solid-state batteries currently mainly comes from solid electrolytes. Assuming the use of 8-series high nickel, 10% silicon-carbon doping, LGPS route (Li10), and isostatic pressing process, the current production and manufacturing cost of all-solid-state batteries is about 6-8 times that of traditional liquid lithium batteries. In the long term, multiple measures are needed to match the cost of existing lithium batteries. Cost reduction can be achieved in materials and processing fees, with specific suggestions as follows: What challenges do solid-state batteries currently face? - Materials and production preparation. In terms of materials and production preparation, solid-state batteries face issues such as solid electrolyte film formation, sulfide electrolyte reactions (with silicon-based anodes), high-temperature decomposition, solid-solid interface contact, production environment control, pressure equipment control, operating pressure control (vehicle operating pressure control), lithium metal: uneven deposition during charging leading to dendrites, and silicon-based anodes: expansion. So, where are we? - All-solid-state batteries are still in the early stages of development. Why do we say solid-state batteries are not coming so fast? The development of solid-state batteries requires the collaboration of the entire industry chain. The development of solid-state batteries requires the collaboration of raw material companies, battery material companies, solid-state battery companies, production equipment companies, and automakers across the entire industry chain! Therefore, we can see that all-solid-state batteries have broad prospects in consumer batteries, EV batteries, and ESS batteries, but they still face challenges in supply chain support, cost reduction, and solving technical pain points. SMM will continue to track the development of the all-solid-state battery market and help companies move forward steadily. For more information, please contact SMM Senior Project Manager Zhu Jian at jaredzhu@smm.cn. Click to view the special report on the 2025 (10th) New Energy Industry Expo.