Tariff risks persist, and the visible inventory of lead ingots is being reduced. The lead price is expected to consolidate. [SMM Weekly Lead Market Forecast]

Next week, April 21 coincides with Easter, and exchanges such as the LME and HKEX will be closed for one day. Key macroeconomic data include China's one-year loan prime rate to April 21, the preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for April, and the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April. Additionally, the US Fed will release the Beige Book, particularly focusing on market changes following the US imposition of additional tariffs on other countries. Regarding LME lead, the US tariff hike has further escalated, with gold, one of the safe-haven assets, hitting new highs. Meanwhile, LME lead inventory surged by 34,200 mt to over 280,000 mt, the highest level since March 2013. Under the dual impact of high inventory and tariff risks, LME lead may continue to be in the doldrums, and there is a possibility of falling below $1,900/mt again. Due to the Easter holiday, LME lead will resume trading next Tuesday, with lead prices expected to range from $1,865 to $1,945/mt. Domestically, the SHFE lead market is seeing an intensified off-season for lead-acid batteries, with some downstream companies considering production cuts or holidays. Meanwhile, the persistently high prices of scrap batteries are squeezing the profits of secondary lead smelting, reducing the production enthusiasm of smelters. The supply and demand of lead ingots are expected to decline. Recently, lead prices rebounded after hitting lows, and some downstream companies have gradually transferred lead inventory from social warehouses (sources from previous buying the dip), which may slightly lift the center of lead prices. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to range from 16,600 to 17,050 yuan/mt. Spot price forecast: 16,650-16,950 yuan/mt. Primary lead production remains relatively stable. After the SHFE lead delivery this week, delivered sources re-enter the circulation market, leading to relatively loose spot supply. Additionally, some smelters have accumulated in-plant inventory, increasing the risk of spot discounts. For secondary lead, scrap battery prices are more likely to rise than fall, and secondary lead companies are in a loss-making state. Some smelters are standing firm on quotes to sell, but the downstream market is in the off-season, with limited demand for lead. After the previous round of buying the dip, the enthusiasm for purchasing lead ingots has declined, forcing secondary refined lead companies to sell more at discounts.