Concerns over the global economic outlook and rising expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts have led to a continued weakening of the US dollar index, keeping silver prices hovering at highs. Additionally, safe-haven sentiment triggered by the Middle East situation continues to ferment, but market sensitivity to geopolitical risk events remains low. As the weekend approached, US economic data weighed on precious metal prices, and with overseas markets closed on Friday for Good Friday, some traders exited safe-haven positions, putting downward pressure on domestic silver prices.
【Economic Data】
Positive: The US March import price index month-on-month rate was -0.1%, compared to the previous value of 0.2% and an expectation of 0.00%.
Negative: The US March retail sales month-on-month rate was 1.4%, compared to the previous value of 0.20% and an expectation of 1.3%; US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending April 11 were 515,000 barrels, compared to the previous value of 2.553 million barrels and an expectation of 507,000 barrels; US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 12 were 215,000, compared to the previous value of 224,000 and an expectation of 225,000.
【Spot Market】Silver: Silver prices continued their upward trend this week. As the delivery date for the SHFE silver 2504 contract approached, spot market supply tightened briefly, and spot premiums increased after the spot-futures price spread widened. In Shanghai, self pick-up ton-grade national standard silver ingots were quoted at a premium of 3-5 yuan/mt against TD, while large manufacturers quoted a premium of 6-8 yuan/mt against TD, and some suppliers were reluctant to sell at TD+10. Silver prices strengthened continuously at the beginning of the week, with significant differences in market quotes. Downstream buyers bought the dip, and market transactions were moderate. With overseas markets closed on Friday for Good Friday, some traders exited safe-haven positions on Thursday, slightly weakening the upward momentum of silver prices. Further attention is needed on macro developments and US Fed policies.
PV: The reference average price for solar cell rear-side silver paste this week was 5,293-5,356 yuan/kg; the reference average price for solar cell front-side finger was 7,974-8,068 yuan/kg; the reference average price for solar cell front-side busbar was 7,924-8,018 yuan/kg.
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