The surge in gold prices has driven a sharp increase in the scale of gold ETFs, with the number of searches for "gold" skyrocketing by 200%. Is it a crisis or an opportunity?

Today, COMEX gold prices retreated after hitting a record high of $3,371.9 per ounce, and as of press time, the price was $3,343.2. However, the overall trend of COMEX gold over the past year remains very impressive. In the domestic market, the prices of pure gold from major gold brands also reached new highs today, with many brands breaking through 1,020 yuan per gram. Against this backdrop, gold ETFs, which are convenient and flexible for trading, have also been gaining popularity. As of April 16, the total scale of the four largest gold ETF products in China reached 122.947 billion yuan, with an increase of 58.877 billion yuan this year alone. According to Ant Fund data, by the end of Q1, the average holding period of gold ETF funds by users reached 1,570 days, with over 7.6 million users starting regular investments. Meanwhile, the number of user searches for "gold" in Q1 increased by 206% YoY. As gold prices climbed, Ant Fund continued to remind investors to be aware of volatility risks and to hold and invest rationally. Some fund managers also proposed solutions to the dilemma faced by investors who want to invest in gold but are concerned about high-level risks, such as periodic investments or viewing the issue from an asset allocation perspective to pursue stable overall asset returns, including combinations like gold + stocks, gold + bonds, and gold + QDII. Gold ETF Scale Hits Record High, Over 2 Million Investors Engage in Regular Investments Amid escalating trade frictions and the loosening of US dollar credibility, gold prices have surged to a record high, becoming a clear sign of global capital seeking safe havens. As of April 16, London spot gold broke through $3,300 per ounce, marking a 36.47% increase over the past year. In this context, gold ETFs have also gradually reached new highs. According to Shanghai Exchange data, by the end of Q1, the scale of domestic on-exchange and off-exchange gold ETFs reached 101.988 billion yuan, up 185% YoY. As of April 16, the total scale of the four largest gold ETF products in China reached 122.947 billion yuan, with an increase of 58.877 billion yuan this year alone. Among them, Huaan Gold ETF saw its shares increase by 2.74 billion this year, reaching 7.589 billion, a growth of over 56.48%. Its latest scale has reached 56.923 billion yuan, with an increase of 28.247 billion yuan this year, making it the undisputed leading product in the gold ETF field. During the same period, Bosera Gold ETF saw its shares increase by 897 million this year, reaching 3.438 billion. Its latest scale reached 25.747 billion yuan, with an increase of 10.743 billion yuan this year. E Fund and Guotai Gold ETFs also saw their shares increase by 921 million and 1.02 billion this year, reaching 3.185 billion and 2.242 billion, respectively. Their current scales are 23.658 billion yuan and 10.41 billion yuan, with increases of 10.41 billion yuan and 9.477 billion yuan this year, respectively. Additionally, the latest scales of ChinaAMC, ICBC Credit Suisse, and Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETFs also totaled over 7 billion yuan. Huaan Gold ETF Scale Grows Over 35 Billion Yuan in the Past Year Affected by market conditions, the investment habits of gold ETF users are gradually changing. Ant Fund data shows that by the end of Q1, the average holding period of gold ETF funds by users reached 1,570 days, with over 7.6 million users choosing long-term regular investments. Additionally, nearly 80% of gold ETF users also hold equity funds, bond funds, or other products like Yu'ebao, initially establishing a concept of diversified allocation. From the perspective of fund companies, whether it is the stagflation risk that tariff events may pose to the economy or the US disrupting the international order and accelerating the collapse of US dollar credibility, gold assets are likely to effectively hedge against such risks. Therefore, after last week's panic selling in the capital markets, international gold prices have rebounded to new highs, being the only major asset to hit new highs after the tariff impact, objectively indicating the current global capital market's recognition of gold's value. Whether it is capital market investors or non-US central banks, the demand for gold assets is likely to continue. Gold Price Surge, Platforms Warn of Risks As gold prices continue to soar, gold ETF distribution platforms like Ant Fund have also been warning of price volatility risks, advocating rational holding of gold and avoiding frequent trading. "Gold ETFs have a low investment threshold, flexible trading, and no storage costs, making them very suitable for ordinary investors," said a gold industry insider. Physical gold is recognized as a hard currency, but gold bars, gold beans, etc., face storage and wear issues, and jewelry gold includes processing fees, making it more expensive, with the recovery price often much lower than the purchase price, making the investment cost not low. Although Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold forecast to $3,700 per ounce, the above-mentioned person analyzed that short-term price fluctuations in gold cannot be ignored, and investors need to guard against risks, buy in batches, and reasonably control positions. Gu Fanding, manager of CITIC-Prudential Global Commodity Theme Fund, believes that gold is still a relatively superior asset, but compared to last year, volatility may increase, which may come from three aspects: First, the US Fed's monetary policy. Last year was the process of the US Fed ending rate hikes and starting rate cuts, with relatively consistent market expectations, but this year the pace of rate cuts may still have significant differences. Second, the direction of the overseas economy. Last year's economic slowdown and marginal decline in inflation were relatively certain, but this year, due to Trump's various reform policies, the uncertainty of the economy and inflation may increase. Third, geopolitical issues. Last year, geopolitical issues did not ease, but this year, although signs of easing have appeared, whether tensions will re-emerge after easing has become uncertain. Ye Peipei, manager of China Europe Fund, also noted that in the short term, the probability of further escalation of overall trade frictions is decreasing, and both recession sentiment and de-dollarization sentiment have shown signs of stabilizing. Therefore, it can be considered that the stage of rapid upward movement in gold prices in the short term may have ended, and subsequent gold prices may show a fluctuating trend, requiring observation of how the trade situation further evolves. "Currently, the risk in the gold market is still the short-term tariff disturbance sentiment warming up. From a speculative perspective, as of April 8, the number of non-commercial long positions in COMEX has decreased significantly from the high, and speculative sentiment is not actually robust," said Ye Peipei. How to Break the Dilemma of Investment Choices? Currently, with gold prices remaining high, investors face the dilemma of wanting to invest but being concerned about high-level risks. How to break this dilemma? Gu Fanding believes there are two investment ideas: The first is periodic investments. In the context of major global changes, gold assets have relatively higher certainty of returns in the medium and long term. If it is difficult to grasp short-term fluctuations, periodic investments can be made to reduce short-term uncertainty while striving to retain the certainty of long-term returns. The second is to view the issue from an asset allocation perspective. The current global economic and political environment faces significant uncertainty, and various assets may be entering a period of amplified volatility. At this time, controlling the risk of the overall asset is much more important than seeking short-term returns from a single asset. For example, many investors now consider allocating gold assets while investing in stocks and bonds as a form of "insurance" for other assets. Additionally, in recent years, many investors may also allocate some QDII funds, which is actually a more diversified investment strategy to pursue stable overall asset returns. Guotai Fund also believes that from an asset allocation perspective, gold has low correlation with stocks and bonds, making it suitable for inclusion in investment portfolios to smooth portfolio volatility. Taking gold + stocks as an example, historical data shows that in years when equity assets suffer significant losses, gold can provide good returns to hedge against stock risks. From 2005 to 2024, the CSI 300 Total Return Index experienced significant losses in certain years, such as 2008, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2018, 2022, and 2023. In these years, spot gold performed well, except for a slight loss in 2008, achieving positive returns in other years, which can better hedge against the decline in equity assets. Gold + bonds is also one of the allocation methods. Guotai Fund analysis suggests that a combination of gold and bonds can balance returns and risks under certain market conditions. For example, during economic instability, the fixed income from bonds can stabilize the returns of the investment portfolio, while the safe-haven attribute of gold may bring additional value. Additionally, by reasonably allocating the proportion of gold and bonds, it can help reduce portfolio volatility to a certain extent, improve portfolio stability, and help investors better achieve the goal of asset preservation and appreciation.