The expectation of a loose alumina supply remains, and the short-term price is entering a phase of volatile adjustment. [SMM Morning Comment on Alumina]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 4.18

Futures: In the night session, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,883 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,895 yuan/mt, a low of 2,852 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,871 yuan/mt, down 13 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.45%, with an open interest of 147,000 lots.

Ore: As of April 17, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $88.71/mt, up $0.01/mt from the previous trading day, mainly due to a slight rebound in caustic soda prices. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average was $88/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average was $87/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average was $81/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Industry News:

(1) On April 15, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of $347.5/mt FOB Bunbury/Kwinana or FOB Gladstone, at the seller's option, with a June shipment.

(2) Alumina port inventory: According to SMM statistics on April 17, domestic port alumina inventory totaled 34,700 mt, an increase of 7,200 mt from the previous week.

(3) According to overseas media reports, international mining giant Rio Tinto and energy transition solutions provider AMG Metals & Materials (AMG M&M) signed a memorandum of cooperation on April 16 to jointly assess the technical feasibility of developing an integrated low-carbon aluminum project in India. According to the agreement, they will focus on studying the construction of an aluminum smelter with an annual capacity of 1 million mt of primary aluminum and supporting alumina production facilities with an annual capacity of 2 million mt. All production processes will be powered by renewable energy such as wind and solar integrated through a pumped storage system. The project is planned to be implemented in phases, with the first phase being the construction of a demonstration aluminum smelter with an annual capacity of 500,000 mt.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Report: According to SMM data, on April 17, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 28 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30.

Warrant Report: On April 17, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 903 mt to 294,300 mt compared to the previous trading day. The total registered alumina warrants in Shandong remained unchanged at 3,307 mt compared to the previous trading day. The total registered alumina warrants in Henan decreased by 301 mt to 11,700 mt compared to the previous trading day. The total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi remained unchanged at 43,200 mt compared to the previous trading day. The total registered alumina warrants in Gansu decreased by 602 mt to 16,500 mt compared to the previous trading day. The total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 219,500 mt compared to the previous trading day.

Overseas Market: As of April 17, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $348/mt, the ocean freight rate was $20.55/mt, and the USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.32. This price translates to a domestic mainstream port selling price of approximately 3,130 yuan/mt, which is 260.39 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price, and the alumina import window remains closed.

Summary:

Due to the concentrated maintenance of alumina refineries in April, the operating capacity of alumina has continued to decline. This week, the operating capacity of alumina dropped to 82.88 million mt/year, and alumina supply tightened in the short term. This week, the decline in alumina prices slowed, and alumina prices in the north rebounded slightly. However, as maintenance gradually ends and new capacities are put into operation, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to rebound, and the expectation of loose alumina supply remains. In the short term, alumina prices may enter a phase of volatile adjustment.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]