【SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Minutes】Downstream Producers Show Increased Inquiries, Refined Cobalt Prices May Fluctuate Upward and Hold Up Well

Refined Cobalt:

This week, the spot price of refined cobalt fluctuated upward. Supply side, the current social inventory in the market is relatively high, but the inventory structure varies slightly. Smelters' willingness to sell remains weak, and due to high raw material costs, some smelters have cut production. Demand side, downstream producers' inquiry activity has increased, and some alloy plants have restocked. Next week, the price of refined cobalt is expected to fluctuate upward.

Intermediate Products:

This week, the spot price of cobalt intermediate products remained stable. On the supply side, upstream producers generally suspended spot quotations to ensure supply for long-term contract customers, and the expected delivery time for some long-term contracts has been extended, resulting in scarce market circulation. Downstream producers are actively inquiring, and raw material shortages have slightly emerged, but spot quotations remain high, leading to relatively weak actual transactions. Next week, the spot price of cobalt intermediate products is expected to fluctuate upward.

Cobalt Sulphate:

This week, the spot price of cobalt sulphate remained stable. Supply side, mainstream salt producers continue to maintain a firm pricing strategy, and raw material shortages have slightly emerged in some salt producers, leading to a certain sentiment of holding back sales. Demand side, downstream remains cautious, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment, resulting in relatively weak market transactions. Next week, the sentiment of holding back sales among salt producers is expected to further increase, and the spot price of cobalt sulphate may fluctuate upward.

Cobalt Chloride:

This week, the cobalt chloride market remained stable, with no significant price fluctuations. On the supply side, smelters face tight raw material inventory and maintain firm pricing for cobalt chloride, with most producers refusing to sell at low prices, keeping market quotations at a high level. On the demand side, although overall market activity is not high, some producers still maintain a certain level of procurement demand to ensure stable production line operations. This rigid demand supports the market price, keeping transaction prices stable at a high level. Next week, the price of cobalt chloride is expected to remain high, with producers showing a strong sentiment of holding back sales.

Cobalt Salt (Co3O4):

This week, the market price of Co3O4 showed relative stability. After previous price fluctuations, market sentiment has gradually returned to rationality, and trading activity has stabilized. On the supply side, most smelters maintained previous quotations this week without significant price adjustments. On the demand side, the market showed some signs of weakness. As many producers have completed necessary procurement earlier, the number of new orders this week is relatively limited. This has led to a decline in market acceptance of high-priced Co3O4, and trading activity has weakened accordingly. Next week, the market is expected to remain slow, and the price of Co3O4 may face downward pressure.

Cobalt Powder and Others:

Recently, the cobalt powder market has been relatively stable, with prices maintained at current levels. Cobalt raw material prices have not fluctuated much, with overall changes being small. Meanwhile, demand from the downstream hard alloy industry has weakened, and with previous stockpiling, current procurement demand is low. In this context, cobalt powder producers are arranging production based on market demand, producing as needed, while maintaining a certain level of inventory to cope with potential market changes.

Ternary Cathode Precursor:

This week, prices of 5-series for consumer electronics, 6-series for consumer electronics, and 8-series for NEV products in the ternary cathode precursor market saw a slight correction. In terms of raw material costs, cobalt sulphate and manganese sulphate prices remained stable, while nickel sulphate prices pulled back, driving down prices of different series of precursor products. On the demand side, recent US tariff policy adjustments have not significantly impacted the precursor market, and the overall market continues to follow planned production schedules and order execution. Demand for precursors used in small power has shown a good recovery trend recently, with active order signing; precursors for large power and consumer electronics also show a certain recovery trend, but the overall market still lacks new growth drivers. On the supply side, as precursor products have long been in a state of losses, producers have a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, and transaction prices remain relatively firm. Affected by this year's significant market fluctuations, producers of precursors for NEV generally no longer sign long-term orders (such as one year or half a year), but instead negotiate discounts on a monthly basis. Meanwhile, producers currently adopt a model of separately negotiating and settling discount coefficients for nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and manganese sulphate. For the consumer electronics precursor market, spot orders still dominate. Looking ahead to next week, sulphate prices may show slight fluctuations. Under the combined effects of raw material price fluctuations, producers' strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, and downstream restocking demand, precursor prices are expected to adjust slightly with raw material fluctuations, but the overall adjustment space is limited.

Ternary Cathode Material:

This week, ternary cathode material prices saw a slight correction. In terms of raw materials, cobalt sulphate and manganese sulphate prices remained relatively stable, while nickel sulphate, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide prices showed a downward trend. Affected by recent market fluctuations and unclear tariff policy directions, the overall market sentiment is cautious, with a wait-and-see attitude. Currently, market supply mainly relies on previously signed long-term contracts, and related discount coefficients have not been adjusted, with spot discount coefficients showing no significant changes compared to last week. In terms of production and orders, as the proportion of large power ternary cathode materials and their downstream ternary battery cell products directly exported to the US is low, the market generally believes that recent US tariff policies will have limited impact on overall demand in the short term, and current order execution and production schedules are proceeding as planned, with Q2 demand expected to recover compared to Q1. However, small power and consumer electronics ternary cathode materials, with a relatively high proportion of their end-use products directly exported to the US, may face certain demand decline risks. Considering that Japan, South Korea, and Europe are the main export markets for domestic ternary cathode materials and their downstream battery cell products, compared to changes in US-China tariff policies, the market is more concerned about whether tariff policies between China and Europe, Japan, and South Korea may change under the influence of the international situation. In terms of prices, ternary cathode material prices are expected to show slight fluctuations next week with raw material price changes.

Lithium Cobalt Oxide:

This week, the lithium cobalt oxide market continued its tug-of-war between supply and demand, with mainstream quotations for 4.2V/4.4V/4.5V lithium cobalt oxide at 224,000 yuan/mt, 221,000 yuan/mt, and 237,000 yuan/mt, respectively. On the supply side, with the completion of industry resumption of work and production in March, capacity utilisation rate has recovered to a high level, and production schedules in April are expected to increase by 3% MoM. On the demand side, Q2, as the peak season for 3C electronics consumption, will drive increased procurement demand from battery cell manufacturers. In terms of prices, lithium cobalt oxide prices are mainly affected by raw material prices, and this week, cobalt and lithium carbonate prices remained relatively stable, so lithium cobalt oxide prices have not changed much recently. Additionally, lithium cobalt oxide producers are currently in a wait-and-see mode, indicating that they will not sell in large quantities in the near future.

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News:

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SMM New Energy Research Team

Cong Wang 021-51666838

Rui Ma 021-51595780

Ziya Lin 86-2151666902

Disheng Feng 021-51666714

Yanlin Lü 021-20707875

Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711

Zihan Wang 021-51666914

Jie Wang 021-51595902

He Zhang 021-20707850

Haohan Zhang 021-51666752

Yang Xu 021-51666760

Bolin Chen 021-51666836

Mengqi Xu 021-20707868