SMM Cobalt and Lithium Morning Meeting Summary: Affected by raw material prices, the price of LCO has shown relatively small changes recently.

Lithium Ore:

This week, lithium ore prices continued the downward trend from last week. With lithium carbonate prices remaining low, demand-side acceptance of CIF SC6 prices at $830/mt and above has weakened, leading to a continuous decline in transaction prices and an overall downward shift in market prices. However, due to cost factors, the price floor of CIF SC6 $800/mt remains a critical node for upstream price support, and the rate of price decline has slowed recently.
In the case of lepidolite, although upstream suppliers maintain a firm stance on prices, downstream smelters show weak willingness to purchase high-priced lepidolite concentrate amid low lithium carbonate prices. Additionally, the recent spread between futures and spot prices has left traders without suitable hedging points, reducing toll processing willingness and forcing a downward shift in lepidolite concentrate market prices.

Lithium Carbonate:

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices remained stable, with no significant decline in the overall price center. Current market transactions indicate that downstream material plants primarily rely on long-term contracts and customer-supplied materials, with spot order procurement demand continuing to weaken. In the absence of clear production signals for future demand, downstream companies maintain just-in-time procurement, with low restocking willingness and strong market sentiment favoring a wait-and-see approach. The divergence in price expectations between buyers and sellers is unlikely to be resolved in the short term. Although some lithium chemical plants have implemented slight production cuts, the overall supply remains high, and the reduction is insufficient to alter the surplus supply-demand balance. However, if production cuts intensify, they may provide some support to price declines. In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue fluctuating within a narrow range.

Lithium Hydroxide:

This week, lithium hydroxide prices showed a weaker trend WoW. Amid subdued market sentiment and slow demand growth, lithium chemical plants, burdened by high inventory, have increased their willingness to sell, leading to a downward shift in transaction discounts. The drag from lower lithium carbonate prices and the lack of significant demand growth expectations make lithium hydroxide prices more likely to fall than rise in the short term.

Refined Cobalt:

This week, spot refined cobalt prices showed a strong upward trend. Supply side, social inventory remains high, but the inventory structure varies slightly. Smelters maintain weak willingness to sell, and some have cut production due to high raw material costs. Demand side, downstream producers have shown increased inquiry activity, with some alloy plants restocking. Next week, refined cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate upward.

Intermediate Products:

This week, spot cobalt intermediate product prices remained stable. Supply side, upstream producers have generally suspended spot quotations to prioritize long-term contract customers, with some long-term delivery expectations extended, resulting in scarce market circulation. Downstream producers are actively inquiring, with raw material shortages slightly evident, but spot quotations remain high, leading to relatively weak actual transactions. Next week, spot cobalt intermediate product prices are expected to fluctuate upward.

Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):

This week, spot cobalt sulphate prices remained stable. Supply side, mainstream salt producers maintain a firm pricing strategy, with some facing raw material shortages and showing reluctance to sell. Demand side, downstream remains cautious, with strong wait-and-see sentiment, leading to weak overall market transactions. Next week, salt producers' reluctance to sell may further increase, and spot cobalt sulphate prices are expected to fluctuate upward.

This week, the cobalt chloride market remained stable, with no significant price fluctuations. Supply side, smelters face tight raw material inventory, maintaining firm pricing for cobalt chloride, with most producers refusing to sell at low prices, keeping market quotations high. Demand side, although overall market activity is low, some producers maintain procurement demand to ensure stable production line operations. This rigid demand supports market prices, keeping transaction prices stable at high levels. Next week, cobalt chloride prices are expected to remain high, with strong supplier reluctance to sell.

Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Tetroxide):

This week, cobalt tetroxide market prices showed relative stability. After recent price fluctuations, market sentiment has gradually returned to rationality, and trading activity has stabilized. Supply side, most smelters maintained previous quotations this week, with no significant price adjustments. Demand side, the market shows some weakness, as many producers completed necessary procurement earlier, resulting in limited new orders this week. This has reduced market acceptance of high-priced cobalt tetroxide and weakened trading activity. Next week, the market is expected to remain slow, with cobalt tetroxide prices potentially facing downward pressure.

Nickel Sulphate:

This week, nickel sulphate prices fell due to lower costs at the beginning of the month. As of Thursday, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 27,757 yuan/mt, with the average price down WoW. Cost side, nickel salt plants actively inquired about MHP spot and Q3 long-term contracts, with the MHP coefficient having no downward room due to tightening supply. Supply side, the cost support for nickel sulphate weakened due to the decline in LME nickel prices at the beginning of the month, leading to a downward shift in the coefficient quoted by some nickel salt plants early this week. Demand side, some downstream producers have not completed April restocking, and precursor plants actively inquired this week, boosting market activity. Looking ahead, nickel sulphate prices are expected to rise slightly next week due to widening cost support and tightening supply.

Ternary Cathode Precursor:

This week, prices for 5-series consumer, 6-series consumer, and 8-series NEV ternary cathode precursor products saw slight corrections. Raw material costs, cobalt sulphate and manganese sulphate prices remained stable, while nickel sulphate prices pulled back, driving down prices for different series precursor products. Demand side, recent US tariff policy adjustments have not significantly impacted the precursor market, with overall market production schedules and order execution proceeding as planned. Small power precursor demand has shown a good recovery trend recently, with active order signing; large power and consumer precursors also show some recovery, but the overall market lacks new growth drivers. Supply side, as precursor products have long been in a state of losses, producers maintain a strong willingness to hold prices, keeping transaction prices firm. Due to significant market volatility this year, NEV precursor producers generally avoid signing long-term (e.g., one-year or half-year) orders, preferring monthly discount negotiations. Currently, producers commonly negotiate and settle discounts for nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and manganese sulphate separately. In the consumer precursor market, spot orders still dominate. Looking ahead, sulphate prices are expected to show slight fluctuations next week. Driven by raw material price volatility, producers' strong price-holding sentiment, and downstream phased restocking demand, precursor prices are expected to adjust slightly with raw material fluctuations, but overall adjustment space is limited.

Ternary Cathode Material:

This week, ternary cathode material prices saw slight declines. Raw material costs, cobalt sulphate and manganese sulphate prices remained stable, while nickel sulphate, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide prices trended downward. Recent market volatility and unclear tariff policy directions have led to cautious market sentiment and a wait-and-see attitude. Current market supply mainly relies on previously signed long-term contracts, with related discount coefficients unchanged, and spot order discount coefficients showing no significant changes WoW. In production and orders, as the proportion of large power ternary materials and their downstream battery cell products directly exported to the US is low, the market generally believes that recent US tariff policies will have limited impact on overall demand in the short term. Current order execution and production schedules are proceeding as planned, with Q2 demand expected to recover compared to Q1. However, small power and consumer ternary materials, with a relatively high proportion of end-use products directly exported to the US, may face some demand decline risks. Considering Japan, South Korea, and Europe as the main export markets for domestic ternary materials and their downstream battery cell products, the market is more concerned about potential changes in tariff policies between China and Europe, Japan, and South Korea under international circumstances than US-China tariff policy changes. Price-wise, ternary material prices are expected to show slight fluctuations next week, following raw material price movements.

Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP):

This week, LFP prices showed little change, with lithium carbonate prices remaining stable and processing fees unchanged. Market side, supply side, material plants maintained stable production this week, with operating rates similar to March. Recent market communication indicates no significant demand growth expectations for April and May. Demand side, downstream battery cell plant demand remained stable, with slight growth compared to March. In price settlements, material plants will renegotiate Q2 processing fees with battery cell plants starting April.

Iron Phosphate:

Recently, the iron phosphate market has shown relative stability. However, after entering April, some downstream LFP production orders were adjusted downward, leading to unmet demand expectations for upstream iron phosphate and industrial-grade MAP. Meanwhile, upstream phosphorus resource prices remained stable, while ferrous sulphate prices showed some loosening. Nevertheless, April to May remains a critical period for Q2 volume push. During this period, market competition may intensify, potentially leading to increased price wars.

Lithium Cobalt Oxide (LCO):

This week, the LCO market continued the tug-of-war between supply and demand, with mainstream quotations for 4.2V/4.4V/4.5V LCO at 224,000 yuan/mt, 221,000 yuan/mt, and 237,000 yuan/mt, respectively. Supply side, with the completion of industry chain resumption in March, industry capacity utilization has recovered to high levels, with April production expected to increase 3% MoM. Demand side, Q2, as the peak season for 3C electronics consumption, will drive increased procurement demand from battery cell plants. Price-wise, LCO prices are mainly influenced by raw material prices, with cobalt and lithium carbonate prices remaining stable this week, leading to little recent change in LCO prices. Additionally, LCO producers currently maintain a wait-and-see attitude, indicating no large-scale shipments in the near term.

Anode:

This week, artificial graphite prices remained stable, with no significant fluctuations. Supply and demand side, downstream battery cell plant production schedules showed no significant increase WoW, keeping overall anode market operating rates flat WoW. Cost side, graphitisation tolling prices remained firm, low-sulphur petroleum coke prices fluctuated stably, and needle coke prices fell 1.8%, leading to a slight decline in anode costs this week. However, as most raw materials for artificial graphite anodes were purchased during previous high-price periods, artificial graphite anode prices remained firm this week. Looking ahead, affected by tariff policies, downstream battery cell demand for artificial graphite anode materials is expected to decline, while costs may rise due to tariff impacts. Under the interaction of supply-demand relationships and costs, artificial graphite prices are expected to remain relatively stable.
This week, the price of natural graphite anode material remained stable. On the supply and demand side, there was no significant fluctuation compared to last week. Cost side, the price of upstream raw materials declined this week. However, due to the lag in production, the price of natural graphite remained relatively stable. Looking ahead, downstream demand may decline under the impact of tariffs, and the processing of natural graphite anode material is expected to drop slightly. Separator: This week, the price of lithium battery separator materials remained stable. The mainstream quotations for wet-process separators of 5um/7um/9um were 1.59 yuan, 0.82 yuan, and 0.75 yuan, respectively. The mainstream quotations for dry-process separators of 12um/16um were 0.46 yuan and 0.43 yuan. On the supply side, with the completion of the resumption of work and production in the industry chain in March, the capacity utilization rate of the industry has recovered, and the production schedule in April is expected to increase slightly. On the demand side, the demand for NEV and ESS continues to grow, which will promote the procurement of separators by battery cell manufacturers. In terms of price, as the previous separator price has been close to the cost line, the price of wet-process separators is expected to remain stable in the near future, while the price of dry-process separators has an upward trend. Electrolyte: This week, the price of electrolyte remained stable. Cost side, the prices of core raw materials such as LiPF6, solvents, and additives remained stable, and the overall manufacturing cost of electrolyte remained stable. On the demand side, the recovery of the new energy battery market demand lagged behind expectations, and end-users still maintained a cautious stockpiling strategy. The current procurement demand for electrolyte showed a phased stabilization feature. On the supply side, major producers continued the "produce based on sales" model and adopted a conservative production schedule strategy, while the operating rate of small and medium-sized producers was low. Comprehensive analysis shows that the market price of electrolyte will be constrained by the unchanged supply and demand fundamentals in the short term, and is expected to maintain a rangebound fluctuation pattern. Sodium-ion battery: This week, the sodium-ion battery market developed steadily. Huayang Group's sodium-ion battery ESS project accelerated, Chuanyi's sodium-ion battery products were upgraded and achieved mass production, and the application of sodium-ion batteries in ESS and logistics fields accelerated. CATL successfully developed the second-generation sodium-ion battery, which can discharge at minus 40 degrees Celsius and is expected to be launched in 2025. With technological progress and capacity expansion, the cost of sodium-ion batteries is expected to further decrease, and the future prospects in stationary ESS and other fields are broad. Recycling: On the supply side, the prices of lithium salts, nickel salts, and cobalt salts fluctuated this week. However, the psychological selling price of grinding mills and traders still did not decrease. This week, the coefficients of ternary and LCO black mass and the lithium point of LFP dropped slightly. Taking ternary pole piece black mass as an example, the current coefficient is around 75-78%, and the average coefficient is 76.5%. Due to policy changes such as overseas tariff hikes, the price of lithium salts continued to decline on Monday, and most wet-process plants stopped purchasing or quoting. Cost side, the prices of nickel, cobalt, and lithium salts fluctuated this week, but the overall trend was a slight decline, so the profit margin of the ternary and LCO scrap market is still below the surplus line. Currently, most wet-process enterprises still report that they are in a state of inversion. Downstream and end-user: This week, the price of DC-side battery cabins fluctuated slightly. The average price of 5MWh DC-side battery cabins was 0.43 yuan/Wh; the average price of 3.44/3.77MWh DC-side battery cabins was 0.438 yuan/Wh. The US continues to escalate tariff sanctions against China, but recently ESS projects have been scheduled according to demand, and the price of DC-side battery cabins remained stable. On April 14, the winning bid result for the EPC general contracting project of the 200MW/800MWh grid-forming ESS power station in Yecheng, Xinjiang was announced. The bid winner quoted 861.52 million yuan, and the unit price after conversion was 1.077 yuan/Wh. Order to view SMM new energy product spot historical prices. Click to view SMM new energy industry chain database. News: Fangyuan Co., Ltd. (688148.SH) announced that due to changes in the market environment and the company's business development strategy, the company decided to terminate the investment of no more than 3 billion yuan in the "battery-grade lithium carbonate production and waste LFP battery comprehensive utilization project". The project was originally planned to be constructed in two phases. The first phase included an annual production of 30,000 mt of battery-grade lithium carbonate and 46,000 mt of iron phosphate precursor. The second phase included an annual production of 40,000 mt of LFP cathode material. The company has actually invested 97 million yuan in the project and has returned the project land. The company will handle the follow-up matters such as the cancellation of Fangyuan Lithium. This decision aims to optimize resource allocation, reduce business risks, and improve the company's operational efficiency, and will not have an adverse impact on the company's business development. Hainan Mining (601969.SH) announced that its subsidiary Kodal Mining UK signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Mali government on the transfer of mining rights for the Bougouni lithium mine project. Recently, the transfer of mining rights has been approved, and the certificate has been registered in the name of Le Mines de Lithium de Bougouni SA, with an initial validity period of 10 years. The company will subsequently promote government equity participation and project commissioning. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA): Ford Motor Company is recalling 24,655 vehicles in the US because when the vehicle is in the parking gear (P gear) and the handbrake is not pulled up, the damaged parking system may cause the vehicle to roll. Engine stalling while driving may cause a sudden loss of driving force. Either of these two situations will increase the risk of a collision. SMM New Energy Research Team Cong Wang 021-51666838 Rui Ma 021-51595780 Ziya Lin 86-2151666902 Disheng Feng 021-51666714 Yanlin Lu 021-20707875 Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711 Zihan Wang 021-51666914 Jie Wang 021-51595902 He Zhang 021-20707850 Haohan Zhang 021-51666752 Yang Xu 021-51666760 Bolin Chen 021-51666836 Mengqi Xu 021-20707868