SMM Coking Coal Tariff Analysis: The Mutual Tariff Imposition Between China and the U.S. Will Have a Short-Term Positive Impact on China's Coking Coal Market but Limited Long-Term Effects

US Tariff Measures Against China

February 1: Trump signed an executive order, announcing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China and canceling the T86 clearance policy (i.e., duty-free for packages under $800).March 3: The US, citing the "fentanyl issue," increased the additional tariff on Chinese goods from 10% to 20%, with some products facing a comprehensive tax rate exceeding 40%.

April 2: The US introduced a "reciprocal tariff" policy, announcing a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" for all trading partners. The benchmark tariff rate (10%) took effect at midnight on April 5, and the reciprocal tariff took effect at midnight on April 9. Among them, the US imposed a 34% reciprocal tariff on China, and the total tariff on China reached 54% after adding the previous rates.April 8: The US government announced that the reciprocal tariff rate on Chinese goods would increase from 34% to 84%, bringing the total tariff to 104%.

April 9: Trump announced that the tariff on goods imported from China would increase to 125%, effective immediately.April 10: White House officials stated that the actual total tariff rate imposed by the US on Chinese goods was 145%, with 125% being only the "reciprocal tariff" portion.

April 11: The US announced exemptions from the "reciprocal tariff" for certain products, including integrated circuits, semiconductor devices, flash memory, smartphones, tablets, laptops, and display modules.April 15: The US announced that due to (China's) retaliatory measures, some Chinese goods exported to the US now face tariffs as high as 245%.

China's Tariff Measures Against the USFebruary 4: China announced that starting from February 10, 2025, it would impose additional tariffs on some imported goods originating from the US. Among them, a 15% tariff would be imposed on coal and liquefied natural gas; a 10% tariff would be imposed on crude oil, agricultural machinery, large-displacement vehicles, and pickup trucks.

March 4: China announced that starting from March 10, 2025, it would impose additional tariffs on some imported goods originating from the US. Among them, a 15% tariff would be imposed on chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton; a 10% tariff would be imposed on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products.April 4: China imposed an additional 34% tariff on all imported goods originating from the US, based on the current applicable tariff rates.

April 9: China announced that starting from 12:01 PM on April 10, 2025, the additional tariff rate on all imported goods originating from the US would increase from 34% to 84%.April 11: The Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement stating that starting from April 12, 2025, China would increase the additional tariff rate on imported goods originating from the US from 84% to 125%.

Although China and the US imposed tariffs on each other, leading to a significant escalation in tariff friction, China is a net importer of coking coal, and the US is not a major trading partner for China's coking coal imports, accounting for a relatively small proportion of China's total coal imports. Therefore, the tariff friction has a certain direct impact on the coking coal market but is relatively limited.The specific analysis is as follows:

Imports: In 2024, China imported a total of 122 million mt of coking coal, of which imports from the US accounted for about 9%, approximately 10.66 million mt. From January to February 2025, China imported a total of 19 million mt of coking coal, of which imports from the US accounted for about 14%, approximately 2.62 million mt.

In 2024, the price advantage of imported coking coal was significant, and China's total coking coal imports hit a record high. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, China imported a total of 122 million mt of coal in 2024, up 19.2% YoY, reaching a record high. In terms of import trading partners, China's main coking coal import trading partners in 2024 were Mongolia, Russia, the US, Australia, and Canada. Imports from these five countries accounted for more than 96% of China's total coking coal imports, holding an absolute dominant position. Imports from the US accounted for about 9% of China's total coking coal imports, a relatively small proportion. After the imposition of a 125% tariff, the cost of importing coking coal from the US would increase significantly, and the price advantage of US coking coal would disappear. However, the current domestic coking coal supply and demand pattern is relatively loose, and Mongolia and Russia have significant geographical advantages, while Australian coking coal has superior quality. The US coking coal share can be quickly replaced by domestic coal sources and other advantageous import sources such as Australia. Therefore, the mutual imposition of tariffs between China and the US will have a positive but limited impact on domestic coking coal prices.Exports: In 2024, China exported a total of 655,000 mt of coking coal, and from January to February 2025, it exported 203,000 mt. The main export trading partners were Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia.

Compared to coking coal imports, China's coking coal exports are very low. At the same time, China's coking coal export trading partners are mainly Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia, and the export trading relationship is relatively stable, with no coking coal export trade with the US. Therefore, the mutual imposition of tariffs between China and the US will not affect China's coking coal exports.In summary, China is a net importer of coking coal. In terms of import trading partners, the US is not a major trading partner for China's coking coal imports, and the US coking coal share can be quickly replaced by domestic coal sources and other advantageous import sources such as Australia. The mutual imposition of tariffs between China and the US will have a positive but limited impact on China's coking coal market in the short term.