Fed Chairman Powell reiterated in the early hours that "there will be no interest rate cuts this year." The spot market for tin ingots has seen a cooling in transactions. [SMM Tin Midday Review]

April 17, 2025

In the morning session, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2505) showed a rising trend. Influenced by the increase in royalty fees for Indonesian tin ore, the price rebounded to a high level, closing at 259,240 yuan/mt at midday, up 0.59% from the previous settlement price. The intraday fluctuation range was from 254,780 to 259,460 yuan/mt, and the open interest further decreased to below 30,000 lots. The White House announced an increase in tariff rates on key Chinese goods such as machinery, electronics, and semiconductors from 125% to 245%, and abolished the duty-free policy for small packages (originally below $800). This move directly impacted the export expectations of China's electronics industry chain. Tin, as a core raw material for solder, faces risks of order transfers or production cuts among downstream enterprises, intensifying the pressure on the demand side. Market estimates suggest that if the tariff policy persists, domestic tin solder exports may decrease by 15%-20%, suppressing price valuations. Fed Chairman Powell reiterated early in the morning that "there is no hope for an interest rate cut this year," pushing the US dollar index to a high of 104.3, putting pressure on the non-ferrous metals sector. Meanwhile, the escalation of US-China trade friction triggered a sell-off in global risk assets, with SHFE tin, as a highly volatile product, bearing the brunt. Although domestic policies have released expectations of an interest rate cut, the market remains skeptical about whether the easing measures can offset the impact of tariffs.