SMM: The Penetration Rate of All-Solid-State Batteries May Reach Around 9% by 2030, Industry Development Requires Collaboration Across the Entire Industry Chain!

At the 2025 (10th) New Energy Industry Expo - All-Solid-State Battery Forward-Looking Technology Forum hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., Zhu Jian, Senior Consulting Project Manager at SMM, shared insights on the topic "Breaking Through and Reconstructing All-Solid-State Batteries - A Systematic Revolution from Materials to Applications." He discussed the development prospects of all-solid-state batteries, the challenges faced during their development, and the progress of key upstream raw materials. He stated that SMM expects global lithium battery demand to reach approximately 2,800 GWh by 2030. Regarding the global penetration rate of all-solid-state batteries, it is expected to be around 0.1% in 2025, potentially reaching 4% by 2030, and is projected to approach 9% by 2030.

The development prospects of solid-state batteries are vast. Why do we need solid-state batteries? - Safety and energy density. How fast will solid-state batteries grow in the future? (1/2) - Global all-solid-state battery penetration is expected to approach 10% by 2035. SMM predicts that the annual compound growth rate of lithium battery demand in the global new energy vehicle industry will be around 11% in 2024, while the ESS industry will see a growth rate of approximately 27%, and the consumer electronics sector will have a growth rate of around 10%. By 2030, global lithium battery demand is expected to reach approximately 2,800 GWh.

In terms of global all-solid-state battery penetration, SMM expects it to be around 0.1% in 2025, potentially reaching 4% by 2030, and is projected to approach 9% by 2030. How fast will solid-state batteries grow in the future? (2/2) - Consumer applications will lead the breakthrough, with EVs having the greatest potential. SMM compared the future growth rates of solid-state batteries in the new energy vehicle, ESS, and consumer electronics (3C digital, eVOTL) sectors and found that the consumer electronics sector is expected to achieve a penetration rate of around 12% by 2030, being the first to break through 10%. The reason, according to SMM, is that 3C digital consumer batteries, due to size constraints, require higher energy density, and factors such as enhanced user experience make them a testing ground for the commercialization of solid-state batteries, leading to the first breakthrough in penetration.

The ESS sector is highly sensitive to battery cell costs, with only some scenarios that are less price-sensitive and highly safety-focused using solid-state cells. The demand is expected to be limited in the short term, with the penetration rate of solid-state batteries in the ESS sector projected to be around 2% by 2030. In the new energy battery sector, the penetration rate is expected to reach around 5% by 2030. High-end EVs demand high safety and long driving range, making solid-state batteries a key choice, but further long-term penetration growth depends on scaling and cost reduction.

What are the different routes for solid-state batteries? - Oxide/polymer/sulfide. They are divided into oxide, polymer, and sulfide: sulfide performs best overall but needs to overcome cost issues. What will the market size of each technical route be in the future? - Sulfide is gradually becoming the mainstream route. SMM compiled the market size of solid-state batteries with different technical routes globally and expects the sulfide route to account for around 43% by 2035, gradually becoming the mainstream route. Currently, several industry chain companies, including BYD, CATL, Nissan, and SK, have laid out the sulfide all-solid-state route.

However, the development of solid-state batteries still faces numerous challenges. What challenges do solid-state batteries currently face? - Supply chain. What challenges do solid-state batteries currently face? - Cost and economics. The production cost of all-solid-state batteries currently mainly comes from solid electrolytes. Assuming the use of 8-series high-nickel, 10% silicon-carbon doping, LGPS route (Li10), and isostatic pressing process, the current production and manufacturing cost of all-solid-state batteries is about 6-8 times that of traditional liquid lithium batteries. In the long term, a "multi-pronged approach" is needed to match the cost of existing lithium batteries. Cost reduction can be achieved in materials and processing fees, with specific suggestions as follows:

What challenges do solid-state batteries currently face? - Materials and production preparation (1/3). What challenges do solid-state batteries currently face? - Materials and production preparation (2/3). What challenges do solid-state batteries currently face? - Materials and production preparation (3/3). So, where are we? - All-solid-state batteries are still in the early stages of development. Why do we say solid-state batteries are not coming that fast? The development of solid-state batteries requires the collaboration of the entire industry chain. Moreover, the development of solid-state batteries requires the collaboration of raw material companies, battery material companies, solid-state battery companies, production equipment companies, and automakers across the entire industry chain!

The development of key upstream raw materials is also crucial. Silicon-based anode materials. CVD silicon-carbon is expected to start scaling up in 2025, breaking through the thousand-ton market size. Market forecast: In 2025, the market size of CVD silicon-carbon will increase significantly to 1,500 mt, with a growth rate of over 300%; by 2030, the market size will grow to 80,000 mt. 2025 increment: • 3C applications: Honor, Huawei, VIVO, OPPO, and other mobile phone applications will further commercialize, expanding penetration; power tools will gradually be equipped. • EV applications: 46-series batteries and solid-state battery R&D will continue to advance, with experimental scale-up leading to increased usage. • Doping ratio increase: The current overall CVD silicon-carbon doping ratio is 5%-10%, expected to increase to 15% by 2025. Further improvement of the industry chain is a key factor, with raw materials and process maturity continuously improving. However, the cost-performance ratio of CVD silicon-carbon is currently low, and cost reduction remains a long-term task.

Lithium metal anode materials. Lithium metal anodes include pure lithium foil, lithium-aluminum composite foil, and composite current collector solutions, with thickness being key. The thickness of lithium metal is closely related to processes such as extrusion, rolling, and lamination. Click to view the special report on the 2025 (10th) New Energy Industry Expo.