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An industry insider told Caixin reporters, "The current prices have left the industry in a passive position." During a weekday visit to the Shuibei gold trading market in Shenzhen, Caixin reporters observed that customers were hesitant, whether for recycling or gold jewelry consumption. A stall owner said, "Gold prices are too high, and the recent foot traffic is indeed not as strong as before, making business more challenging." A representative from a gold wholesale company, a member of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, also noted that gold shipments had declined significantly compared to last week.
On April 16, data showed that spot gold prices reached $3,317.89 per ounce, with an intraday increase of over 2%. The most-traded US gold futures contract also hit a new high of $3,334.2 per ounce.
Domestic gold prices were also driven higher. On April 16, the most-traded gold futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose to 782 yuan per gram, setting a new record. Spot gold prices denominated in yuan have risen by approximately 26% year-to-date, nearing last year's full-year increase.
Brand gold stores such as Chow Sang Sang (00116.HK), Lao Feng Xiang (600612.SH), and Luk Fook Jewelry reported prices for pure gold jewelry exceeding 1,000 yuan. For example, Lao Feng Xiang's pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,005 yuan per gram today, up by 16 yuan from the previous day.
"The current rise in gold prices is essentially a reflection of the decline in US dollar credibility, the depreciation of the US dollar, and concerns about the stability of the global currency exchange system," said Song Yunming, chief analyst at Asaming International Economic Consulting, to Caixin reporters. He noted that Trump's tariff policies have been erratic, and the unresolved US-China tariff issue has drawn more attention, leading to a high consensus in the market about a global economic recession, which has kept gold prices elevated. From a market perspective, Asian gold buying power has been particularly strong this year, and China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for five consecutive months, with the likelihood of further increases, providing strong support for gold prices.
The rapidly fluctuating market has significantly impacted gold recycling and end-use consumption. Caixin reporters observed that brand gold stores had few customers, with the high gold prices being a major factor suppressing consumption, in addition to the current off-season.
In terms of gold recycling, a gold shop owner said that most customers are in a wait-and-see mode. Sellers are concerned that prices will rise further after selling, while customers who have already purchased and held gold are worried about a sharp price drop.
"Recycling business has declined due to rising gold prices," said the representative from the gold wholesale company. There are two types of sellers: individuals, who would have sold earlier if they were concerned about prices, and jewelry stores clearing inventory, but with gold prices rising for so long, they are hesitant to restock, leaving little to clear. Additionally, with gold prices climbing, the funds available for purchasing gold are limited, reducing the amount that can be bought. For example, where 10 million yuan could previously buy 30 kilograms, it now only buys 12 kilograms, resulting in lower profits.
With gold prices remaining high, how are gold-listed companies responding?
Chow Tai Fook (002345.SZ) previously told Caixin reporters, "Regarding gold price fluctuations, our brand has a comprehensive supply chain management system and a flexible market strategy mechanism. We will continuously and dynamically assess industry trends, balancing cost changes and consumer experience through product innovation, intangible cultural heritage craftsmanship upgrades, and exclusive member benefits."
A spokesperson for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) Jewelry Group told Caixin reporters, "Facing record-high gold prices, we will adjust our product portfolio according to market demand, offering different product series to meet customer needs, such as flexibly using various jewelry materials to create culturally rich and fashionable designs. We will also apply techniques like 5D hard gold to 'lighten' products while maintaining design and quality, providing more cost-effective options."
Regarding whether the company will increase gold product prices again and how to mitigate the impact of rapid gold price increases on profits, the Chow Tai Fook Jewelry Group spokesperson said the company has a robust risk management mechanism to address gold price fluctuations and evaluates the prices of priced gold products at least every six months, considering factors such as production cost changes, market demand, and strategic positioning.
Looking ahead, Song Yunming said, "If the US and China can return to the negotiating table on tariff issues, and the Russia-Ukraine issue can be resolved, sending positive signals to the market, gold prices may see a significant correction. Currently, I expect the year-end closing price for London gold to be between $3,200 and $3,400 per ounce."
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