The US dollar declined, metals showed mixed performance, LME zinc, SHFE zinc, and coking coal fell by more than 1%, and gold prices continued to hit new highs! [Overnight Market]

SMM April 17 News:

In the metal market:

Overnight, domestic and overseas metal markets showed mixed performance. SHFE zinc led the decline with a 1.11% drop, while SHFE copper and SHFE nickel both rose over 0.7%, with SHFE copper up 0.71% and SHFE nickel up 0.72%. Other metals experienced relatively small fluctuations. In the overseas market, LME zinc led the decline with a 1.43% drop, LME aluminum rose 0.57%, LME lead fell 0.55%, and other metals showed minor fluctuations. Alumina's main contract rose 0.04%.

In the ferrous metals series, most products declined, with only iron ore rising by 0.5%. HRC fell 0.53%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal dropped 1.23%, and coke fell 0.29%.

In the precious metals sector, COMEX gold rose 3.62% overnight. After opening on the morning of April 17, COMEX gold climbed further, reaching $3,371.9 per ounce, continuously refreshing its historical high. The main reasons were the weakening US dollar and escalating trade tensions, prompting investors to turn to safe-haven assets. COMEX silver rose 1.43%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 2.64%, hitting a historical high of 792.56 yuan per gram, and SHFE silver rose 1.14%.

Gold prices have risen nearly $700 this year, supported by tariff disputes, interest rate cut expectations, and strong central bank purchases. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, stated that this rally is somewhat detached from fundamentals and carries a risk of correction. However, the corrections seen over the past year have been relatively small, as each decline has been supported by buying.

As of 6:43 AM on April 17, the overnight closing market:

Click to view the SMM futures data dashboard.

On the macro front:

Domestically:

The "Qiushi" magazine published an article by Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao titled "Multiple Measures to Expand Service Consumption." The article pointed out that policies will be accelerated, including supporting household service consumption and developing digital consumption, and will collaborate with relevant departments to formulate support policies for tourism, ultra-high-definition, sports event economy, and the healthy development of traditional Chinese medicine.

Regarding "the US raising tariffs on China to 245%," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that the specific tariff rate can be asked from the US side. Tariff wars and trade wars have no winners. China does not want to fight but is not afraid to fight. The Ministry of Commerce stated that China has repeatedly clarified its stance on the US's unilateral tariff hikes. For the US's meaningless tariff number games, China will not respond. However, if the US insists on substantially infringing on China's rights and interests, China will resolutely counter and see it through to the end.

On the US dollar:

Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.89%, resuming its decline after a brief rise for one trading day. Both safe-haven currencies and risk-sensitive currencies outperformed the US dollar, as traders watched whether the US government would reach a new trade agreement with its trading partners.

The US dollar plunged last week due to concerns over the economic impact of new tariffs and investors adjusting overseas asset allocations amid uncertainty over trade policy implementation. Fed Chairman Powell stated on Wednesday that US economic growth appears to be slowing, consumer spending growth is mild, and the rush to buy imported goods to avoid tariffs may drag down GDP estimates, with confidence also deteriorating.

Powell also stated that the hope that the Fed will step in to curb market volatility is likely wrong. Wednesday's US data showed a surge in March retail sales, as households increased purchases of motor vehicles ahead of tariffs. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Other currencies:

The euro rose 0.84% to $1.1376, below the three-year high of $1.1473 touched last Friday.

The US dollar depreciated 0.71% against the yen to 142.22, after touching 142.03, slightly below last Friday's low, marking the lowest rate since September 30. Trading volume is declining ahead of the Good Friday holiday, when most US markets will be closed, but the foreign exchange market will remain open.

The US dollar fell 1% against the Swiss franc to 0.81, slightly above last Friday's 10-year low. Since the announcement of tariffs on April 2, the Swiss franc has appreciated the most among G10 currencies, and the deflationary effect of its appreciation may prompt the Swiss National Bank to return interest rates to negative territory.

The pound fell 0.07% to $1.3221, after touching a six-month high of $1.3292.

The Canadian dollar rose 0.5% to 1.39 Canadian dollars, after the Bank of Canada kept its key policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, marking the first pause after seven consecutive rate cuts, and stated it is prepared to take decisive action to control inflation if necessary.

The Australian dollar rose 0.35% to $0.6365, after touching $0.6391, the highest since February 24.

Data:

Today, the US will release the preliminary annualized total of March building permits, the initial jobless claims for the week ending April 12, the April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and the annualized total of March housing starts. The eurozone will release the April ECB main refinancing rate, the April ECB deposit facility rate, and the April ECB marginal lending rate. Japan will release the March unadjusted merchandise trade balance, the seasonally adjusted merchandise trade balance, and the unadjusted merchandise exports. Australia will release the March RBA foreign exchange transactions - market channel, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, and the employment change. New Zealand will release the March trade balance and the Q1 CPI annual rate.

Additionally, Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Chicago Economic Club, Fed Governor Barr will deliver a speech, and 2025 FOMC voters, Kansas City Fed President Schmid and Dallas Fed President Logan, will hold a fireside chat on the US economy and banking. , 2026 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Mester, will participate in a Q&A session. The ECB will announce its interest rate decision, and ECB President Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference.

On crude oil:

Overnight, oil prices in both markets rose, with US oil up 0.58% and Brent oil up 2.15%, due to market concerns over disruptions to Iranian supply and OPEC producers submitting the latest plans to further cut oil production to compensate for overproduction. A document released by OPEC on Wednesday showed that the organization has received the latest compensation plans from all its oil-producing members, including additional voluntary adjustments. According to the latest compensation plan, monthly production cuts will range from 196,000 barrels per day to 520,000 barrels per day from this month to June 2026, higher than the previous 189,000 barrels per day to 435,000 barrels per day. The seven member countries implementing the cuts are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Oman, including Algeria, which does not need to cut production. The plan shows that in May, six of these countries will need to cut production by 378,000 barrels per day.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated that as of the week ending April 11, crude oil inventories increased by 515,000 barrels to 442.9 million barrels, despite a significant increase in crude oil exports, while analysts surveyed expected an increase of 507,000 barrels. Gasoline and distillate inventories declined. The EIA released an adjustment data showing 722,000 barrels per day of "unaccounted crude oil." This data is used as a balancing item for the EIA to ensure the accuracy of supply and demand reports. Bob Yawger, an energy analyst at Mizuho, stated, "It is generally believed that if US crude oil exports approach 2 million barrels per day, US crude oil inventories should theoretically decline, but the EIA has essentially offset this impact with adjustment data."

The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated on Tuesday that global oil demand growth this year will be the lowest since 2020, when global oil demand shrank due to the COVID-19 pandemic. (Wenhua Comprehensive)