SMM: Bauxite May Face Tight Balance This Year, Surplus Situation to Pressure Alumina Both Domestically and Internationally [SMM Aluminum Industry Conference]

In 2026, the release of production from already commissioned projects and the commissioning of new projects are expected to further increase the supply of imported bauxite in China. China's bauxite supply is expected to shift to a surplus, with prices fluctuating around $70/mt. On the cost side: Under pessimistic expectations of increased supply of imported bauxite, bauxite may present a tight balance in 2025. Guinea's bauxite supply accounts for nearly half of China's total bauxite supply, but Guinea's bauxite supply is affected by numerous uncertainties such as the rainy season, strikes, and government decrees. Under pessimistic expectations, the increase in Guinea's bauxite shipments is expected to be around 25 million wmt, with an overall bauxite surplus of about 5.4 million mt for the year. Considering the stocking demand for new projects, bauxite may present a tight balance in 2025, gradually shifting to a surplus in 2026. In this scenario, bauxite prices are expected to remain relatively firm, with Guinea's bauxite prices expected to drop to a minimum of $75-80/mt in 2025, and further decline to around $70/mt in 2026. Under a surplus scenario, China's alumina prices are expected to fluctuate around the cost. In a surplus scenario, alumina is unlikely to see significant profits, and alumina prices are expected to fluctuate around the cost. If Guinea's bauxite prices drop to $70-80/mt, the average cost of alumina is expected to be 2,990-3,136 yuan/mt. Supported by the cost line, alumina prices are expected to fluctuate between 2,600-3,400 yuan/mt in 2025-2026, and between 2,900-3,300 yuan/mt during relatively stable periods. Stimulated by profits, overseas alumina operating capacity is expected to increase. The cash cost of alumina production in major alumina export regions is around $300/mt, and the rise in overseas alumina prices also stimulates the increase in overseas alumina production capacity and the commissioning of new capacity. With supply growth surpassing demand growth, the overseas alumina market is expected to remain in surplus. As supply conditions recover, overseas alumina prices have rapidly pulled back. The FOB price of alumina in Western Australia has dropped from $810/mt to $330/mt, a decrease of 59.25%. In 2025, overseas new alumina capacity of 4 million mt is expected to be commissioned, presenting a surplus scenario. Supported by the cost bottom, overseas alumina prices may fluctuate between $250-400/mt. In 2026, both supply and demand are expected to increase, with the overseas alumina surplus expected to expand by 710,000 mt. In 2026, overseas alumina production is expected to increase by 2.79 million mt, and overseas aluminum production is expected to increase by 1.08 million mt. With an alumina consumption rate of 1.925, overseas alumina demand is expected to expand by 2.08 million mt, resulting in an alumina surplus expansion of about 710,000 mt to 2.51 million mt. In 2026, overseas alumina is expected to remain under pressure, with prices also fluctuating around $250-400/mt. With the expected expansion of the surplus, alumina prices are expected to fluctuate at lows. As supply conditions recover, overseas alumina prices have rapidly pulled back. The FOB price of alumina in Western Australia has dropped from $810/mt to $330/mt, a decrease of 59.25%. In 2025, overseas new alumina capacity of 4 million mt is expected to be commissioned, presenting a surplus scenario. Supported by the cost bottom, overseas alumina prices may fluctuate between $250-400/mt. Click to view the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference and Aluminum Industry Expo special report.