The Potential Impact of Trump's Tariff Plan on China's Home Appliance and Consumer Electronics Exports Suppresses SHFE Tin Prices to Maintain a Fluctuating Trend in the Doldrums [SMM Tin Futures Review]

April 15, 2025 Daily Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2505) was in the doldrums today, opening at 261,600 yuan/mt, hitting a high of 262,390 yuan/mt during the session, and finally closing at 258,990 yuan/mt, with a daily decline of 0.31%. The intraday price fluctuation range narrowed, and market activity remained high, but open interest slightly decreased compared to the previous day, indicating a cautious tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State remains uncertain. After the earthquake event at the end of March, the mine area symposium was postponed, and the blockage of transportation channels has intensified market concerns about ore shortages. Downstream restocking was mainly at low prices: spot market transactions weakened, but high prices suppressed downstream purchase willingness, with most companies restocking based on rigid demand. Macro policy risks are weighing down: the potential impact of Trump's tariff plan on China's home appliance and consumer electronics exports has led to significant uncertainty in end-use demand. Social inventory destocking: SMM data showed that last week's social inventory decreased by 342 mt to 11,662 mt, supporting market expectations of marginal improvement in supply and demand. Smelters' sentiment of holding prices and reluctance to sell was evident, with traders reporting insufficient transactions for a single truck, and downstream and end-user companies' wait-and-see sentiment heating up, waiting for better purchase opportunities.