【SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Minutes】Spot Refined Cobalt Prices Rose Amid Macro Event Fluctuations

Refined Cobalt:

The spot price of refined cobalt rebounded this week. Supply side, the current spot inventory in the market remains at a relatively high level, but the market speculation sentiment was ignited by macro event fluctuations, leading to relatively active trading among traders and a rise in the spot quotations of refined cobalt. Demand side, downstream producers remain cautious. The spot price of refined cobalt is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend this week.

Intermediate Products:

The spot price of cobalt intermediate products remained stable this week. On the supply side, upstream producers generally suspended spot order quotations to ensure supply for long-term contract customers, and the overall market circulation remains tight. Downstream producers' inquiry activity slightly increased, but the price spread between buyers and sellers continues to widen, resulting in mediocre overall market transactions. The spot price of cobalt intermediate products is expected to fluctuate upward this week.

Cobalt Sulphate:

The spot price of cobalt sulphate remained stable this week. Supply side, salt producers' sentiment improved, and spot quotations slightly rebounded, but actual transactions were weak. Demand side, influenced by macro events, downstream enterprises are dominated by a wait-and-see attitude, with weak inquiry and buying activity, leading to relatively weak overall market transactions. The overall supply-demand pattern is unlikely to improve this week, and the spot price of cobalt sulphate is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.

Cobalt Chloride:

At the beginning of the week, the price of cobalt chloride remained stable. On the supply side, as smelters' early raw material inventory is nearly depleted and raw material prices remain high, smelters are unwilling to sell at low prices, insisting on standing firm on quotes, resulting in market quotations remaining at a high level with limited supply. On the demand side, although market activity is not high, some manufacturers still need to purchase cobalt chloride to ensure normal production, which has pushed transaction prices to remain high. The price of cobalt chloride is expected to remain high this week, with suppliers showing strong reluctance to sell.

Cobalt Salt (Co3O4):

At the beginning of the week, the price of Co3O4 remained relatively stable. On the supply side, most smelters' quotations remained unchanged, and market sentiment gradually returned to rationality. On the demand side, as many manufacturers have completed their earlier purchases, new orders this week are limited, leading to a decline in market acceptance of high prices, reduced trading activity, and the market entering a buffer period. The spot price of Co3O4 is expected to further decline this week, as downstream LCO producers show weak purchase willingness.

Cobalt Powder and Others:

This week, the price of cobalt powder slightly decreased WoW, while the alloy market remained stable. Downstream purchasers remain cautious, closely monitoring the price trend of cobalt raw materials. In the cobalt carbonate raw material market, hoarding still exists, prompting cobalt powder producers to produce based on demand and minimize inventory to reduce operational risks. Overall, all segments of the cobalt powder industry chain are actively adjusting their operational strategies based on market changes, striving to maintain stable development in a volatile market environment.

Ternary Cathode Precursor:

On Monday, the ternary cathode precursor market performed steadily, with prices of 5-series for consumer electronics, 6-series for consumer electronics, and 8-series for NEV remaining stable. In terms of raw material costs, the prices of nickel sulphate, manganese sulphate, and cobalt sulphate remained stable overall, with no significant fluctuations. On the demand side, recent adjustments in US tariff policies have not yet had a significant impact on the precursor market, and the market continues to follow production schedules and orders as planned. The demand for precursors used for small power has shown a good recovery trend recently, with relatively active order signing; precursors for large power and consumer electronics also show some recovery, but the overall market still lacks new growth drivers. On the supply side, precursor products have long been in a state of losses, prompting producers to stand firm on quotes, and transaction prices remain firm. Most historically signed long-term contracts are still being executed smoothly, while in new long-term contract negotiations, precursor producers and downstream material plants are still in a price tug-of-war. For spot orders, the industry generally adopts a method of separately negotiating and settling the discount coefficients for nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and manganese sulphate. Looking ahead this week, influenced by US tariff policies, sulphate prices may show slight fluctuations. Under the combined influence of raw material price fluctuations, producers' strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, and downstream restocking demand, precursor prices are expected to adjust slightly with raw material price fluctuations, but the overall adjustment range is limited.

Ternary Cathode Material:

On Monday, the price of ternary cathode material remained stable overall. In terms of raw materials, the prices of nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, manganese sulphate, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed no significant changes. Affected by recent market volatility and the uncertain direction of tariff policies, the market overall shows a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Current market supply mainly relies on previously signed long-term contracts, with related discount coefficients unchanged, and spot order discount coefficients also show no significant changes compared to last week. In terms of production and orders, as the proportion of large power ternary cathode material and its downstream ternary battery cell products directly exported to the US is low, the market generally believes that recent US tariff policies will have limited impact on overall demand in the short term, and current order execution and production schedules are proceeding as planned, with Q2 demand expected to rebound compared to Q1. However, small power and consumer ternary cathode materials, whose end-use products are directly exported to the US in a relatively high proportion, may face some risk of demand decline. Considering that Japan, South Korea, and Europe are the main export markets for domestic ternary cathode material and its downstream battery cell products, the market is more concerned about potential changes in tariff policies between China and Europe, Japan, and South Korea under the influence of international situations than changes in US-China tariff policies. In terms of price, ternary cathode material prices are expected to show slight fluctuations this week, following raw material price movements.

LCO:

This week, the LCO market continued its tug-of-war between supply and demand, with mainstream quotations for 4.2V/4.4V/4.5V LCO at 224,000 yuan/mt, 227,000 yuan/mt, and 237,000 yuan/mt, respectively. On the supply side, with the completion of industry chain resumption of work and production in March, industry capacity utilization rate has recovered to a high level, and production schedules in April are expected to increase by 3% MoM. On the demand side, Q2, as the peak season for 3C electronics consumption, will drive increased procurement demand from battery cell manufacturers. In terms of price, LCO prices are mainly influenced by raw material prices, and with cobalt and lithium carbonate prices remaining stable this week, LCO prices have shown little recent change. Additionally, LCO producers are currently in a wait-and-see mode, indicating that they will not make large-scale shipments in the near term.

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News:

【General Administration of Customs: China's exports of flat panel display modules, auto parts, and lithium batteries to ASEAN increased by over 20% in Q1】Lv Daliang, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs and Director of the Department of Statistical Analysis, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that China and ASEAN are jointly committed to regional economic integration, with close industrial chain connections driving rapid growth in the import and export of upstream and downstream products. In Q1, manufacturing products accounted for 90.1% of China-ASEAN trade, with China's exports of flat panel display modules, auto parts, and lithium batteries to ASEAN increasing by over 20%; China's imports of parts for automatic data processing equipment, printed circuits, and textile raw materials from ASEAN maintained growth.
【Ganfeng Lithium: Signed Letter of Intent with LAR for Salt Lake Development】Ganfeng Lithium announced that it has signed a letter of intent with Lithium Argentina AG to jointly develop the Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes salt lake basin in Argentina. The salt lake basin consists of three lithium salt lake projects, including the PPG lithium salt lake project wholly owned by Ganfeng Lithium, the PG lithium salt lake project jointly held by both parties (Ganfeng Lithium holds 14.89% and LAR holds 85.11%), and the SDLP lithium salt lake project (Ganfeng Lithium holds 35% and LAR holds 65%). The two parties plan to integrate the three projects into a new project, the "PPGS lithium salt lake project," and formulate a phased development plan. The production process of the PPGS lithium salt lake project plans to partially adopt direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology, with a long-term planned annual capacity of 150,000 mt LCE. Products will include lithium chloride or lithium carbonate.
【China's production of power and other batteries totaled 118.3GWh in March, up 18.0% MoM】According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in March 2025, China's production of power and other batteries totaled 118.3GWh, up 18.0% MoM and 54.3% YoY. From January to March, China's cumulative production of power and other batteries was 326.3GWh, up 74.9% YoY. In March, China's sales of power and other batteries were 115.4GWh, up 28.3% MoM and 64.9% YoY. Among them, power battery sales were 87.5GWh, accounting for 75.8% of total sales, up 30.7% MoM and 46.9% YoY; other battery sales were 28.0GWh, accounting for 24.2% of total sales, up 21.0% MoM and 166.8% YoY.

SMM New Energy Research Team

Cong Wang 021-51666838

Rui Ma 021-51595780

Ziya Lin 86-2151666902

Disheng Feng 021-51666714

Yanlin Lv 021-20707875

Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711

Zihan Wang 021-51666914

Jie Wang 021-51595902

He Zhang 021-20707850

Haohan Zhang 021-51666752

Yang Xu 021-51666760

Bolin Chen 021-51666836

Mengqi Xu 021-20707868