【SMM Cobalt and Lithium Morning Meeting Summary】LFP Buyers Strictly Control Costs, Iron Phosphate Market Faces Challenges

Lithium Ore:

At the beginning of the week, lithium ore prices showed a slight decrease WoW. With lithium carbonate prices at a relatively low level, the sentiment to drive down prices among lithium ore demanders intensified. Overseas mines continued to gradually lower their high quotes, with recent CIF SC6 quotes at 820-830 yuan/mt, and transaction prices showed a downward trend, leading to a slight decline in the overall market price. On the lepidolite side, despite high auction transaction prices serving as a guide, downstream willingness to purchase at such high prices remained weak due to the persistently low lithium chemical prices, resulting in a downward shift in market prices.

Lithium Carbonate:

At the beginning of the week, the price center of spot lithium carbonate transaction prices remained stable. Currently, downstream material plants have a high proportion of long-term contracts and customer supply, resulting in weak demand for spot orders, with only just-in-time procurement being the main focus. Although upstream lithium chemical plants have slightly loosened their quotes, there remains a significant gap with downstream expected purchase prices, and the market is dominated by transactions between traders and downstream material plants. Overall, market procurement sentiment is cautious, with most parties adopting a wait-and-see attitude.

Lithium Hydroxide:

At the beginning of the week, lithium hydroxide prices remained stable but showed a weak trend WoW. With subdued market sentiment and slow demand growth, lithium chemical plants, due to high inventory, have increased their willingness to sell compared to the previous period, leading to a downward shift in transaction discounts between upstream and downstream. The recent drag from lower lithium carbonate prices, coupled with no significant increase in demand expectations, makes lithium hydroxide prices more likely to fall than rise in the short term.

Refined Cobalt:

This week, spot refined cobalt prices rebounded. Supply side, current spot inventory in the market is at a relatively high level, but fluctuations in macro events have ignited speculative sentiment, with traders being relatively active, leading to an increase in spot refined cobalt quotes. Demand side, downstream producers remain cautious. It is expected that spot refined cobalt prices will maintain a fluctuating trend this week.

Intermediate Products:

This week, spot cobalt intermediate product prices remained stable. On the supply side, upstream producers have generally suspended spot quotes to ensure supply for long-term contract customers, and the overall market circulation remains tight. Downstream producers have slightly increased their inquiry activity, but the price spread between buyers and sellers continues to widen, resulting in overall mediocre market transactions. It is expected that spot cobalt intermediate product prices will fluctuate upward this week.

Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):

This week, spot cobalt sulphate prices remained stable. Supply side, salt plant sentiment has rebounded, and spot quotes have slightly increased, but actual transactions remain weak. Demand side, influenced by macro events, downstream companies are dominated by a wait-and-see sentiment, with weak inquiry and purchase activity, resulting in overall mediocre market transactions. It is expected that the overall supply-demand pattern will not improve this week, and spot cobalt sulphate prices will continue to fluctuate.

At the beginning of the week, cobalt chloride prices remained temporarily stable. Supply side, as early raw material inventories at smelters are nearly depleted and raw material prices remain high, smelters are unwilling to sell at low prices, insisting on standing firm on quotes, leading to market quotes being maintained at a high level with limited supply. Demand side, although market activity is not high, some manufacturers still need to purchase cobalt chloride to ensure normal production, thus driving transaction prices to remain high. It is expected that cobalt chloride prices will continue to remain high this week, with suppliers showing strong reluctance to sell.

Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Tetroxide):

At the beginning of the week, cobalt tetroxide prices remained relatively stable. Supply side, most smelters' quotes remained unchanged, and market sentiment gradually returned to rationality. Demand side, as many manufacturers have completed their previous procurement, new orders this week are limited, leading to a decrease in market acceptance of high prices, reduced transaction activity, and the market entering a buffer period. It is expected that downstream LCO manufacturers' purchase willingness will not be strong this week, and spot cobalt tetroxide prices may further decline.

Nickel Sulphate:

On April 14, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 27,943 yuan/mt, with the battery-grade nickel sulphate quotation range at 27,920-28,500 yuan/mt, and the average price remained stable WoW. Cost side, based on the reduction of Indonesian high-ice, market demand for MHP has increased, driving the MHP coefficient to continue rising. Recent floods in Indonesia have reduced MHP supply, further driving up the MHP quote coefficient. On the LME nickel side, recent US tariff policies have led to a continuous decline in LME nickel prices. Overall production costs at nickel salt smelters have pulled back. Supply side, due to reduced production costs this week, some nickel salt smelters have lowered their quotes. Some nickel salt smelters have not adjusted their quotes due to insufficient Q2 raw material inventory and the MHP coefficient remaining high. Demand side, some downstream psychological acceptance prices have lowered, and precursor plants remain cautiously wait-and-see, with low market inquiry activity. Looking ahead, nickel sulphate prices are expected to decline due to weakened costs, but the decline is expected to be limited due to tight nickel salt supply and demand.

Ternary Cathode Precursor:

On Monday, the ternary cathode precursor market performed steadily, with prices for 5-series consumer, 6-series consumer, and 8-series NEV products remaining stable. Raw material cost side, nickel sulphate, manganese sulphate, and cobalt sulphate prices remained stable without significant fluctuations. Demand side, recent adjustments in US tariff policies have not had a significant impact on the precursor market, and the market continues to follow planned production schedules and orders. Demand for small power precursors has shown a good recovery trend recently, with relatively active order signing; large power and consumer precursors also show a certain recovery trend, but the overall market still lacks new growth drivers. Supply side, precursor products have long been in a state of losses, prompting companies to strongly stand firm on quotes, and transaction prices remain firm. Historically signed long-term contracts are mostly still being smoothly executed, while in new long-term contract signings, precursor manufacturers and downstream material plants are still in a price tug-of-war. For spot orders, the industry generally adopts a method of separately negotiating and settling the discount coefficients for nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and manganese sulphate. Looking ahead this week, influenced by US tariff policies, sulphate prices may show slight fluctuations. Under the combined influence of raw material price fluctuations, manufacturers' strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, and downstream phased restocking demand, precursor prices are expected to adjust slightly with raw material price fluctuations, but the overall adjustment space is limited.

Ternary Cathode Material:

On Monday, ternary cathode material prices remained stable. Raw material side, nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, manganese sulphate, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide prices showed no significant changes. Influenced by recent market volatility and the uncertain direction of tariff policies, the market overall shows a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Current market supply mainly relies on previously signed long-term contracts, with related discount coefficients not yet adjusted, and spot order discount coefficients showing no significant changes WoW. In terms of production and orders, as the proportion of large power ternary materials and their downstream ternary battery cell products directly exported to the US is low, the market generally believes that recent US tariff policies will have limited impact on overall demand in the short term, and current order execution and production schedules are proceeding as planned, with Q2 demand expected to rebound compared to Q1. Small power and consumer ternary materials, as their end-use products are directly exported to the US in a relatively high proportion, may face a certain risk of demand decline. Considering that Japan, South Korea, and Europe are the main export markets for domestic ternary materials and their downstream battery cell products, compared to changes in US-China tariff policies, the market is more concerned about whether tariff policies between China and Europe, Japan, and South Korea may change under the influence of the international situation. Price side, ternary material prices are expected to show slight fluctuations with raw material price fluctuations this week.

LFP:

This week, LFP prices showed a significant overall decline, dropping by about 485 yuan/mt. Mainly due to a significant overall decline in lithium carbonate prices this week, dropping by about 2,150 yuan; processing fees remained largely unchanged this week. Supply side, material plants maintained stable production this week, with operating rates similar to March. Demand side, downstream battery cell plant demand remained stable, with a slight increase compared to March, but the increase was relatively small. Additionally, starting from April, some material plants will renegotiate Q2 processing fees with battery cell plants.

Iron Phosphate:

This week, the iron phosphate market remained calm, with the inability to raise prices becoming the industry's primary issue to solve. On one hand, phosphorus resource costs remain high, bringing significant cost pressure to iron phosphate production; on the other hand, downstream LFP purchasers strictly control costs, making the iron phosphate market difficult, in a dilemma. In this situation, some iron phosphate companies plan to regulate market supply through production cuts, hoping to stabilize prices or even achieve a slight increase to alleviate current operational difficulties.

LCO:

This week, the LCO market continued its tug-of-war between supply and demand, with mainstream quotes for 4.2V/4.4V/4.5V LCO at 224,000 yuan/mt, 227,000 yuan/mt, and 237,000 yuan/mt, respectively. Supply side, with the completion of industry chain resumption of work and production in March, industry capacity utilization rates have recovered to a high level, and April production schedules are expected to increase by 3% MoM. Demand side, Q2, as the peak season for 3C electronic product consumption, will drive increased procurement demand from battery cell plants. Price side, LCO prices are mainly influenced by raw material prices, and with cobalt and lithium carbonate prices remaining stable this week, LCO prices have shown little recent change. Additionally, LCO producers are currently in a wait-and-see attitude, indicating that they will not sell in large quantities in the near future.

Anode:

This week, artificial graphite prices remained stable WoW. Supply and demand side, downstream battery cell plant production increased, leading to higher procurement of main material artificial graphite anode materials, and to meet market demand, anode material producers increased their operating rates. Cost side, graphitisation tolling service prices are in a stalemate; influenced by supply-demand relationships, low-sulphur petroleum coke prices rose by 1.1% this week, while oil-based needle coke prices fell by 2.1%. Comprehensive cost calculations show a decline in anode costs this week, but as the raw materials currently used for artificial graphite anodes were mostly purchased at high prices earlier, artificial graphite anode prices remained firm this week. Natural graphite anode prices, due to low market demand, remained difficult to rise.
Looking ahead, the supply and demand of artificial graphite and natural graphite will be affected by tariff policies, and the demand for anode materials from downstream battery cells may show a shrinking trend. Cost side, the comprehensive theoretical cost is expected to increase slightly. Therefore, it is expected that graphite prices may show a slight fluctuating trend. Separator: This week, the prices of lithium battery separator materials remained stable, with mainstream quotations for wet-process separators of 5um/7um/9um at 1.59 yuan, 0.82 yuan, and 0.75 yuan, respectively. Dry-process separators of 12um/16um were quoted at 0.46 yuan and 0.43 yuan. Supply side, with the completion of the resumption of work and production in the industry chain in March, the industry's capacity utilization rate has recovered, and production schedules in April are expected to increase slightly. Demand side, downstream NEV and ESS demand continues to grow, which will promote battery cell manufacturers' procurement of separators. Price-wise, as separator prices have already been close to the cost line, it is expected that separator prices will remain stable in the near term. Electrolyte: This week, electrolyte prices remained stable. Cost side, the prices of core raw materials such as LiPF6, solvents, and additives remained stable, and the overall manufacturing cost of electrolytes remained stable. Demand side, the recovery of downstream new energy battery market demand lags behind expectations, and end-users still maintain a cautious stockpiling strategy. Current electrolyte procurement demand shows a phased stabilization feature. Supply side, major producers continue to adopt a "produce based on sales" model, with conservative production schedules, and the operating rate of small and medium-sized producers is relatively low. Comprehensive analysis suggests that in the short term, the market price of electrolytes will be constrained by the unchanged supply and demand fundamentals, and is expected to maintain a narrow range-bound fluctuation. Sodium-ion battery: This week, in the sodium-ion battery industry market, ESS sector pilot projects are steadily advancing, and with the characteristics of abundant resources and low cost, the commercialization model is gradually being explored. The attention of the two-wheeler market to sodium-ion batteries is heating up, and lightweight, cost-effective sodium-ion battery solutions are expected to accelerate the replacement of some lead-acid battery shares, broadening the application scenarios. Although sodium-ion batteries still need breakthroughs in large-scale application and cost control, with the maturity of technology and the deepening of market cultivation, the potential of sodium-ion batteries in the new energy sector is gradually being released, and in the future, it will empower the green energy transition with a stronger posture. Recycling: The price of recycled scrap decreased this week. Raw material side, the price of lithium chemicals fell due to tariff policies, and although nickel and cobalt prices remained stable overall, most downstream demand sides are not optimistic about the continued rise of cobalt salts. Supply side, affected by the rapid changes in salt prices this week, the supply side is more in a wait-and-see mode, and did not follow the price reduction of salts, choosing to stand firm on quotes for small quantities. Demand side, some wet-process powder companies are more bearish on lithium carbonate due to policy impacts, so they are not in a hurry to purchase or quote, some companies chose to suspend quotes recently to observe the market, and some companies quickly lowered their psychological price levels. In terms of market transactions, most companies prefer just-in-time procurement or suspend procurement to reduce the risk of further price declines, and it is expected that the trading volume in the recycling market will tighten significantly in the short term, and companies will make procurement and cost estimates after observing. Downstream and terminal: This week, the price fluctuation of DC-side battery cabins was relatively small. The average price of 5MWh DC-side battery cabins was 0.43 yuan/Wh; the average price of 3.44/3.77MWh DC-side battery cabins was 0.438 yuan/Wh. Most provinces have not yet issued detailed rules for the settlement of benefits from ESS participation in the power market mechanism, and market participants are mostly in a wait-and-see mode. Although the US's targeted tariff sanctions against China are intensifying, ESS projects are scheduled on demand recently, and the price of DC-side battery cabins remains stable. On April 8, the winning bid result for the EPC general contracting project of the centralized shared new-type energy storage demonstration project in Longyang District was announced. The project is located in the Wanghai area of Baoshan Industrial Park, Yunnan Province, and the planned capacity of the centralized shared new-type energy storage demonstration power station is 200MW/400MWh. The bid winner quoted 361.0885 million yuan, with a unit price of 0.903 yuan/Wh after conversion. > Order to view SMM new energy product spot historical prices > Click to view SMM new energy industry chain database News: 【General Administration of Customs: In Q1, China's exports of flat panel display modules, auto parts, and lithium batteries to ASEAN all increased by more than 20%】Lv Daliang, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs and Director of the Department of Statistical Analysis, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that China and ASEAN are jointly committed to the development of regional economic integration, and the close industrial chain links between the two sides have driven the rapid growth of imports and exports of upstream and downstream products. In Q1, manufacturing products accounted for 90.1% of China-ASEAN trade, among which China's exports of flat panel display modules, auto parts, and lithium batteries to ASEAN all increased by more than 20%; China's imports of parts for automatic data processing equipment, printed circuits, and textile raw materials from ASEAN maintained growth. 【Ganfeng Lithium: Signed a letter of intent with LAR to cooperate in the development of salt lakes】Ganfeng Lithium announced that the company has signed a letter of intent with Lithium Argentina AG to cooperate in the development of salt lakes. The two parties will jointly develop the Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes salt lake basin in Argentina. The salt lake basin consists of three lithium salt lake projects, namely the PPG lithium salt lake project wholly owned by Ganfeng Lithium, the PG lithium salt lake project jointly held by the two parties (Ganfeng Lithium holds 14.89% equity, LAR holds 85.11%), and the SDLP lithium salt lake project (Ganfeng Lithium holds 35% equity, LAR holds 65%). The two parties plan to integrate the three projects into a new project "PPGS lithium salt lake project" and formulate a phased development plan. The production process of the PPGS lithium salt lake project plans to partially adopt direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology, and the long-term planned annual capacity can reach 150,000 mt LCE. The products will include lithium chloride or lithium carbonate. 【In March, China's production of power and other batteries totaled 118.3GWh, up 18.0% MoM】According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in March 2025, China's production of power and other batteries totaled 118.3GWh, up 18.0% MoM and 54.3% YoY. From January to March, China's cumulative production of power and other batteries was 326.3GWh, up 74.9% YoY. In March, China's sales of power and other batteries were 115.4GWh, up 28.3% MoM and 64.9% YoY. Among them, power battery sales were 87.5GWh, accounting for 75.8% of total sales, up 30.7% MoM and 46.9% YoY; other battery sales were 28.0GWh, accounting for 24.2% of total sales, up 21.0% MoM and 166.8% YoY. SMM New Energy Research Team Cong Wang 021-51666838 Rui Ma 021-51595780 Ziya Lin 86-2151666902 Disheng Feng 021-51666714 Yanlin Lv 021-20707875 Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711 Zihan Wang 021-51666914 Jie Wang 021-51595902 He Zhang 021-20707850 Haohan Zhang 021-51666752 Yang Xu 021-51666760 Bolin Chen 021-51666836 Mengqi Xu 021-20707868