Tariffs Expected to Continue Impacting Oil Market! Goldman Sachs Predicts: Oil Prices Will Keep Falling Next Year

Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to continue declining by the end of this year and into next year, as risks of a global economic recession rise and OPEC+ may increase oil supply.

Oil prices are expected to drop further next year.

Goldman Sachs predicts that Brent and WTI crude oil prices will drop slightly for the remainder of 2025, with average prices expected to fall to $63 and $59 per barrel, respectively. In 2026, Brent crude is expected to be $58, and WTI crude is expected to be $55.

As of this Monday, Brent crude futures fell to around $64.72 per barrel, while WTI crude futures were at $61.44. This means Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to potentially drop by 2.65% this year, and WTI crude to potentially drop by 3.97%.

Considering the global economic growth outlook amid the global trade war initiated by Trump, the bank expects oil demand to increase by only 300,000 barrels per day from the end of last year to the end of 2025.

Due to the escalating US-China trade war since mid-March, Goldman Sachs has revised down its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in Q4 2026 by 900,000 barrels per day.

Goldman Sachs also lowered its forecast for US shale oil supply in Q4 2026 by 500,000 barrels per day.

Crude oil inventories are expected to increase.

Last Friday, the State Council Tariff Commission announced that on April 10, 2025, the US government raised the "reciprocal tariff" rate on Chinese goods exported to the US to 125%. With the approval of the State Council, starting from April 12, 2025, China increased the tariff rate on imports originating from the US from 84% to 125%.

Goldman Sachs predicts that, against the backdrop of mutual tariff hikes between China and the US, global economic growth is expected to slow further, and crude oil inventories are likely to increase. Although the market has anticipated this prospect in advance, it has not yet fully reflected in oil prices.

Goldman Sachs expects that global crude oil supply surplus will reach 800,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026, which will continue to exert downward pressure on global oil prices. .

Goldman Sachs stated that, in the context of a global economic slowdown, or if OPEC+ fully reverses its voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, Brent crude prices could fall to the $40 range in 2026, and in extreme combined scenarios, could even drop below $40.