Breaking News! U.S. Exempts Certain Goods from "Reciprocal Tariffs"! Trump Speaks Out! What's Next for Crude Oil Prices?

The US Exempts Certain Goods from "Reciprocal Tariffs"

According to Xinhua News Agency, the US Customs and Border Protection announced on the evening of April 11 that the federal government has agreed to exempt electronic products such as smartphones, computers, and chips from so-called "reciprocal tariffs."

Documents released by the Customs and Border Protection show that these products are excluded from the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the government on trading partners. The documents indicate that the exemptions apply to electronic products entering the US after April 5, and "reciprocal tariffs" already paid can be refunded.

Bloomberg reported that the measure may alleviate the price pressure faced by US consumers to some extent, while benefiting electronics giants including Apple and Samsung Electronics.

Financial analyst Hussein Kubesi pointed out that this marks a "180-degree turn" in the US government's tariff policy.

Recently, the US government has implemented extensive and erratic tariff policies, causing turmoil in financial markets and drawing criticism from Republican heavyweights, including former Vice President Mike Pence.

The First Round of Indirect Negotiations Between the US and Iran Concludes, Both Sides Agree to Continue Talks Next Week

According to CCTV News, the first round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the US on lifting sanctions and nuclear issues concluded in Oman on the afternoon of April 12.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the talks were conducted in a constructive atmosphere of mutual respect, and both sides conveyed their respective government positions on lifting illegal sanctions against Iran and Iran's peaceful nuclear program through the Omani Foreign Minister.

Both sides agreed to continue the talks next week. Additionally, after the indirect negotiations, the heads of the Iranian and US delegations had a brief face-to-face exchange witnessed by the Omani Foreign Minister as they left the meeting venue.

According to Global Times citing AFP and other media reports, before the US and Iran held talks in Oman on April 12 on issues including Iran's nuclear program, US President Trump stated on April 11 that he "hopes Iran becomes a great country, but without nuclear weapons."

What Lies Ahead for Crude Oil Prices?

This week, Trump announced comprehensive tariff measures, intensifying expectations of a global economic recession and dampening crude oil consumption expectations. WTI crude oil fell to a four-year low of $55.12 per barrel.

Regarding this week's performance of crude oil futures, Chen Dong, a senior energy and chemical researcher at Baocheng Futures, explained that while the US "reciprocal tariff" policy suppressed global economic growth expectations, OPEC+'s accelerated production increase decision significantly exceeded market expectations. Against the backdrop of weakening macro and industry factors, both domestic and overseas crude oil futures prices plummeted.

Chen Dong believes that the recent sharp decline in crude oil futures prices is due to two factors: first, the US "reciprocal tariff" policy has sparked concerns of a global economic recession, turning macro sentiment pessimistic and causing a sharp decline in risk asset prices; second, eight OPEC+ oil-producing countries recently decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May, significantly exceeding market expectations and further weakening already fragile oil prices.

He noted that OPEC+'s unexpected production increase is a response to long-term overproduction by Kazakhstan and Iraq. Meanwhile, OPEC+ faces the dilemma of choosing between market share and price stability. Non-OPEC+ supply led by the US is eroding OPEC+'s market share. The EIA expects non-OPEC crude oil supply to increase by 1.44 million barrels per day YoY in 2025. The IEA believes non-OPEC crude oil supply will grow by 1.5 million barrels per day YoY in 2025. Additionally, OPEC expects non-OPEC crude oil supply to increase by 1.01 million barrels per day YoY in 2025. With supply expectations continuing to rebound, the price center of both domestic and overseas crude oil futures is steadily declining.

Sui Xiaoying, chief petrochemical researcher at the trading consulting department of Founder Midterm Futures, stated that US tariff measures have escalated global trade friction, increased the risk of a global economic recession, exacerbated financial market turmoil, and caused a sharp decline in international oil prices.

"Affected by US tariff policies, crude oil consumption faces a blow," Sui Xiaoying said. Against the backdrop of OPEC+'s further production increases, global crude oil supply will rebound in 2025. Meanwhile, under the expectation of a global economic recession, crude oil consumption growth will decline. With increased US sanctions, there is a risk of reduced crude oil supply from Iran and Venezuela, potentially alleviating expectations of a crude oil market surplus. The EIA expects the crude oil market to face a supply surplus in H2 2025, with the surplus reaching 640,000 barrels per day in Q4. The IEA expects the surplus to reach 1.1 million barrels per day in Q4 this year, with an annual surplus of 600,000 barrels per day.

Additionally, Sui Xiaoying noted that future escalation of the trade war will negatively impact the global economy, further dampening crude oil consumption. After the US announced the "reciprocal tariff" policy, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2025 and 2026 crude oil demand growth forecasts to 300,000 and 400,000 barrels per day, respectively, while Morgan Stanley reduced its H2 2025 crude oil demand growth forecast to 500,000 barrels per day.

Yan Lili, a crude oil and asphalt analyst at the New Era Futures Research Institute, stated that this week's EIA monthly report significantly lowered crude oil demand and price forecasts. The EIA expects global crude oil consumption to increase by 900,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 1 million barrels per day in 2026, down by 400,000 and 100,000 barrels per day, respectively, from last month. Overall, affected by tariff policies, short-term oil price trends are weak but may experience significant fluctuations. US-Iran negotiations are crucial, with the US Treasury pressuring Iran again, and Iran considering a temporary nuclear agreement with the US to buy more negotiation time. If negotiations break down, geopolitical risks may escalate.

Chen Dong believes that short-term crude oil futures may continue to decline. Although US President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" on some countries, this 90-day period is a negotiation phase, and high tariffs may still be implemented after the period ends. Additionally, OPEC+ is entering a production increase cycle. As the summer oil consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere approaches, it may bring phased support to crude oil futures prices.

Looking ahead, Sui Xiaoying stated that US tariff policies will further depress oil prices in the long term. Recent consecutive sharp declines in crude oil have released negative sentiment, and short-term tariff policy trends will continue to dominate market sentiment and oil prices. In the absence of further negative news, oil prices may experience an oversold rebound, but overall upward momentum is limited. In the long term, as Trump's tariff policies and various countries' countermeasures gradually take effect, deteriorating trade conditions will increase the risk of a global economic downturn, potentially leading to a global economic recession, negatively impacting crude oil consumption and further depressing oil prices. Therefore, the overall trend for crude oil remains bearish.