Late at Night, a Sharp Decline! Trump's Latest Statement! Five and a Half Hours of Closed-Door Talks, U.S. and Russia Reach an Understanding!

Late at night, US stocks plummeted again, while gold hit a new high! On Thursday, April 10, the US stock market experienced a pullback. By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.5% to 39,593.66 points, the S&P 500 dropped 3.46% to 5,268.05 points, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 4.31% to 16,387.31 points. Before the market opened, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the US CPI rose 2.4% YoY in March, below market expectations, while the core CPI increased 2.8% YoY, marking the smallest rise since March 2021. The "Magnificent Seven" all declined, with Apple down 4.24%, Microsoft down 2.34%, Nvidia down 5.91%, Amazon down 5.17%, Google (Class C) down 3.53%, Meta down 6.74%, and Tesla down 7.27%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 7.97%, with all 30 components closing lower. AMD dropped 8.41%, Broadcom fell 6.94%, Qualcomm declined 6.4%, Arm Holdings decreased 5.75%, ASML dropped 5.49%, and TSMC fell 4.8%. Among Chinese stocks, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.14%. Popular Chinese stocks were mixed, with Li Auto up 5.25%, GDS Holdings up 4.94%, TAL Education Group up 3.21%, XPeng Motors up 3.04%, and JD.com up 1.44%. Alibaba fell 0.57%, New Oriental dropped 0.84%, NIO declined 0.91%, Tencent Music fell 1.19%, Baidu dropped 2.63%, and Pinduoduo fell 6.16%. The US dollar index fell more than 1.8%, marking its largest single-day drop since 2022, while safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen appreciated over 2%. Spot gold prices continued to rise, breaking the April 3 high and setting a new record at $3,180.13/oz. Meanwhile, the main gold futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange also rose to $3,194.3/oz but did not surpass the previous high of $3,201.6/oz set earlier this month. On Thursday evening, Trump posted on social media, stating that inflation has declined. In another post, he said, "Republicans are working well together. The biggest tax cut in US history!" Earlier, Trump's rapid response team stated on social media, "The March US CPI data is absolutely a low number. New data shows that inflation eased in March, beating expectations for the second consecutive month. Under Trump's leadership, America is back, but inflation is not." However, the "trade war" initiated by the Trump administration continues to weigh on the market. Federal Reserve official Logan stated on Thursday that higher-than-expected tariffs are likely to increase unemployment and inflation, emphasizing that her most pressing concern is controlling inflation and inflation expectations. "The persistence of inflation's impact will depend on how quickly companies absorb cost increases and whether long-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored," Logan noted. She pointed out that when higher inflation expectations become entrenched, it takes longer to reduce inflation, the labor market weakens further, and economic damage deepens. "Sustained inflation outbreaks could lead households and businesses to expect further price increases, especially after years of persistently high inflation," Logan said. According to CCTV, on April 10, the US and Russian delegations completed the second round of talks in Istanbul, Turkey, on the normalization of embassy operations, which lasted five and a half hours. The US State Department issued a statement saying that the US delegation, led by Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Russia and Central Europe Sonata Kurt, met with the Russian delegation led by Russian Ambassador to the US Darchev in Istanbul, Turkey. The statement noted that the US and Russian delegations continued the constructive approach established in the first round of talks, exchanged views, and ultimately reached an understanding to ensure the stability of diplomatic banking operations for bilateral missions. The US reiterated its concerns over Russia's "ban on hiring local employees," calling it a key obstacle to maintaining a stable and sustainable staffing level at the US Embassy in Moscow. On April 10, Russian Ambassador to the US Darchev, who was in Turkey for consultations with the US, stated that during the negotiations, both delegations agreed to quickly resolve sensitive issues left over from the Biden administration. Both sides agreed to continue measures to simplify travel and visa procedures for each other's diplomats. Additionally, they exchanged views to ensure stable banking services for diplomatic missions in each other's countries. Darchev also mentioned that Russia expressed its hope for the US to return confiscated Russian diplomatic assets as soon as possible. He revealed that both sides discussed the resumption of direct flights between Russia and the US, which would promote bilateral ties and increase personnel exchanges. The US stated in its declaration that Kurt and Darchev agreed to hold follow-up meetings on the above issues as needed in the near future, with the specific time, location, and representatives to be determined. Russia also stated that both sides are confirming the timing of the next round of consultations. US-Russian diplomatic relations have been tense in recent years, with both countries expelling each other's diplomats, leading to the inability of embassies to operate normally. This is the second round of talks between the US and Russia on the normalization of embassy operations, conducted behind closed doors. On February 27, representatives from the US and Russia held the first round of talks at the US Consulate General in Istanbul, determining specific initial steps to stabilize bilateral mission operations. On April 10, with the temporary easing of macro sentiment, the domestic chemical futures market showed a significant rebound. Among various chemicals, styrene futures led with a 6% increase, ethylene glycol futures rose 5.83%, short fiber futures increased 5.17%, paraxylene futures gained 5.11%, and PTA futures rose 4.97%, standing out among the rising chemical varieties with substantial rebounds. Regarding this, Xia Congcong, head of the Industrial Research Center at Founder CIFCO Futures Research Institute, believes that the "reciprocal tariffs" policy exceeded market expectations, leading to a rapid spread of risk aversion in the market. However, as the tariff policy dynamically changes, market sentiment has gradually been released. Especially after US President Trump announced that he had authorized a 90-day tariff suspension for countries or regions that do not take retaliatory actions, this news triggered a strong market rebound, and the impact of the implemented tariff policies on chemicals is gradually weakening. Miao Yang, an analyst at GF Futures, also believes that the short-term tariff dispute has eased to some extent, and after the release of negative market sentiment, it is conducive to the temporary stabilization of chemical prices. The downward impact of the macro front on chemicals has weakened but remains non-negligible. After the macro-driven impact weakens, the market will reassess the fundamentals of commodities. "From the perspective of the industry chain, the easing of tariff policies helps alleviate the export pressure on chemical companies and improve market expectations. However, the impact of previous tariff policies on industry chain adjustments and market confidence is difficult to eliminate immediately in the short term and will still suppress chemical demand to some extent," Miao Yang said. In terms of supply and demand, the medium and long-term outlook depends on the new capacity deployment and operating rates of chemical companies. Additionally, attention should be paid to the pressure on related companies affected by tariffs, especially in industries with concentrated global operations such as textiles, rubber and plastics, and basic chemicals. Changes in marginal demand will have an increasing impact on the futures market. Currently, the dominant logic in the chemical sector is the combined effect of "cost collapse" and "demand shrinkage." Looking at the future trend, the shift in market logic still depends on the turn of macro games. "In the short term, cost collapse remains the dominant factor. The stabilization and rebound of the cost side rely on trade negotiations and macro-boosting policies, but the recovery of the demand side will take longer," said Dai Yifan, head of energy and chemicals at Nanhua Futures. In Dai Yifan's view, the current market pessimism has approached a short-term extreme, but the persistence of sentiment fermentation still depends on two key premises. First, whether the escalation and expansion of tariff games can be paused; second, whether the domestic macro policy's expectation of boosting domestic demand can effectively help shift market pessimism after external demand is suppressed. "Currently, the market still needs some time to digest the impact of escalating tariffs. The end of short-term games will help market sentiment return to objectivity and rationality," Dai Yifan believes. Before the intensification of macro games, the downward impact on chemicals is more about the release of panic sentiment, with limited downside space. He believes that the future trend of chemicals will still be dominated by macro logic, with the impact of industrial logic being relatively limited for now. Currently, the market is quite concerned about which chemical varieties are stronger or weaker from the perspective of sector differentiation. "Currently, the chemical rebound will mainly revolve around the ethylene and propylene industry chains," Dai Yifan said. Domestic PDH and ethane cracking companies find it difficult to reduce production losses through re-export or adjusting procurement regions. After the tariff exemption period ends, production and operation pressures will increase rapidly. Taking PDH as an example, from June to July, the market estimates a supply loss of about 400,000 mt/month. In addition to PP, similar ethane cracking units will also cover PE, EB, EG, and other varieties. "The future trend of chemicals will still show significant differentiation," Xia Congcong believes. Varieties with strong fundamentals will stabilize and rebound first, such as urea, styrene, and ethylene glycol. Additionally, varieties strongly correlated with crude oil will perform prominently after oil prices stabilize and rebound. Domestically self-sufficient chemicals, such as PVC and plastics, remain weak overall due to increased capacity. In the rebound market, it is recommended to prioritize varieties with fundamental drivers for allocation. Taking ethylene glycol in the polyester chain as an example, Futures Daily observed a dramatic reversal in ethylene glycol prices this week. On April 10, ethylene glycol opened low and rose sharply, with EG2505 and EG2509 contracts both hitting the limit up. By the close, the EG2505 contract rose to 4,271 yuan/mt, and the EG2509 contract rose to 4,330 yuan/mt. Before this, since Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, ethylene glycol futures began to fall sharply, dropping more than 500 yuan/mt in just four trading days. On April 9, it once fell to 3,956 yuan/mt, hitting the limit down. Liu Siqi, an analyst at ZJTF Futures, believes that the reversal in ethylene glycol futures is mainly influenced by changes in tariff policies, directly reflected in the increased expected supply loss of ethylene glycol and the increased "rush to export" demand for polyester. The sharp rise in the futures market yesterday was also a correction of the previously overly pessimistic expectations. "From the perspective of supply and demand, the fundamentals of ethylene glycol in April and May are not bad. Domestic planned maintenance is at a high level, and overseas imports are expected to decrease. On the demand side, polyester maintains a high operating rate."Siqi Liu believes that in the short term, ethylene glycol futures are relatively resistant to declines, but under the backdrop of the US-China trade war, demand will be somewhat affected, with limited upside potential.

Later, the core risk in the domestic chemical sector still revolves around the uncertainty of tariff policies, and the US's stance towards the EU, Southeast Asia, and other countries needs to be closely monitored," said Yifan Dai. "Firstly, it will affect the expected trend of global total demand, and secondly, it will significantly impact the possibility of China's manufacturing sector re-exporting. Due to the current extreme swings in tariff policy expectations, investors are still mainly operating with light positions or adopting a wait-and-see approach," he said.

An Ran, a senior analyst at Hua'an Futures, believes that the focus of the future chemical market is mainly reflected in three aspects. Firstly, the uncertainty of Trump's policies still exists, and the 90-day tariff exemption is only a transitional period for negotiations with various countries. Whether the "reciprocal tariff" policy will continue after the transition period still poses a risk, and the trend of economic expectations declining remains unchanged. Secondly, the US fiscal crisis will escalate in May-June, involving a game between Trump and the US Fed. If US inflation pressure leads the US Fed to insist on balance sheet reduction without cutting interest rates, it may lead to an escalation of internal imbalances in the US, and the commodity market will still face the risk of a significant decline. Thirdly, OPEC's announcement of a production increase in May is also one of the core factors of this round of oil price decline. Currently, oil prices are above the cost of shale oil extraction, making further declines difficult. After future demand weakens, it is not ruled out that Middle Eastern countries will continue to cut production, and the expectation of stronger oil prices will bring some support to chemical products.