The implementation of US tariff policies caused a significant impact, with SHFE tin prices experiencing a sharp decline, dropping by 5.55% within the day. [SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

April 9, 2025 Daily Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Futures Contract On April 9, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin futures contract (SN2505) suffered a heavy blow, with a daily decline of 5.55%, closing at 254,100 yuan/mt, hitting a new low in nearly a month. The opening price in the morning session was 266,280 yuan/mt, and the lowest intraday price dropped to 252,000 yuan/mt, with a maximum amplitude of 5.41%. Impact of US Tariff Policy Implementation: The Trump administration announced that the "reciprocal tariffs" on Chinese goods took effect today, affecting tin consumption areas such as electronics and PV. Market concerns about demand contraction and a surge in risk aversion led to a broad decline in commodities. Global Economic Growth Slowdown: The downward pressure on the US economy intensified, with slowing exports dragging down global trade. Although China's March manufacturing PMI rebounded, weak external demand orders put pressure on the valuation of industrial metals. Expectation of Easing Conflict in the DRC: The political imbalance in the Bisie mining area is expected to ease through talks on April 9, reducing market concerns about the shutdown of the world's third-largest tin mine and accelerating the squeeze on risk premiums. Pervasive Wait-and-See Sentiment in the Industry Chain: Smelters holding back cargoes and downstream delays in restocking have created a stalemate, with expanding spot premiums reflecting the split between the futures and spot markets. In the short term, SHFE tin is expected to remain in the doldrums, with a core fluctuation range of 245,000-260,000 yuan/mt. If negotiations in the DRC break down or the situation in Myanmar changes again, prices may rebound to the 265,000 yuan pressure level; if the US tax list exceeds expectations or domestic inventory buildup accelerates, prices may test the 240,000 yuan psychological barrier.