Base metals saw the overseas market outperform the domestic market, with LME copper and LME zinc leading the gains, while LME tin and SHFE tin dropped by over 5%. Crude oil and precious metals surged significantly in the overnight market.

SMM April 10 News: In the metal market, domestic base metals mostly fell overnight, with SHFE tin down 5.72%. SHFE copper slightly declined. SHFE nickel dropped 1.01%. SHFE lead fell 0.06%. SHFE aluminum decreased 0.1%, while SHFE zinc rose 0.77%. Additionally, alumina increased 2.29%. In the ferrous metals series, iron ore rose 1.09%, stainless steel fell 1.81%, rebar increased 0.55%, and HRC climbed 0.78%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal dropped 0.65%, and coke rose 0.49%. LME metals mostly gained overnight, with LME copper up 2.79%. LME zinc increased 2.22%, LME tin fell 5.93%, LME lead dropped 0.24%, LME aluminum rose 0.34%, and LME nickel climbed 1.69%. In the precious metals sector, COMEX gold rose 3.67%, and COMEX silver increased 4.31%. SHFE gold rose 1.48%, and SHFE silver climbed 2.21%. As of 8:11 AM on April 10, the overnight closing market. Click to view the SMM futures data dashboard. On the macro front, domestically, a strong countermeasure was announced: an additional 50% tariff on all imports originating from the US. On April 8, Eastern Time, the US increased the previously announced 34% so-called "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese exports to the US by 50% to 84%. The State Council Tariff Commission announced on April 9 that starting from 12:01 PM on April 10, the additional tariff rates on imports originating from the US would be adjusted from 34% to 84%. Click for details. The State Council Information Office released a white paper on issues concerning China-US economic and trade relations, clarifying facts and stating China's policy stance. The white paper emphasized that the essence of China-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win. As two major countries with different development stages and economic systems, it is normal for China and the US to have differences and frictions in economic and trade cooperation. The key is to respect each other's core interests and major concerns and find proper solutions through dialogue and consultation. Trade wars have no winners, and protectionism is no way out. The success of China and the US is an opportunity rather than a threat to each other. It is hoped that the US will work with China in the same direction, following the guidance of the leaders' phone call, and resolve respective concerns through equal dialogue and consultation based on the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, jointly promoting the healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China-US economic and trade relations. Click for details. Xiao Lu, Deputy Director of the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce, stated at a press conference on April 9 that China's foreign trade is confident and capable of facing various risks and challenges. Xiao Lu pointed out that in 2024, China's goods imports and exports crossed two trillion-yuan thresholds, reaching 43 trillion yuan, with the international export market share steadily increasing, expected to reach around 14.7%. China's open door will only open wider, and China will firmly practice true multilateralism, firmly maintain global trade order, and work with more trading partners to achieve win-win results and inject more stability into global trade growth. The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) data showed that domestic retail sales of passenger NEVs in March reached 991,000 units, up 38.0% YoY. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the CPCA, stated on the 9th that the US tariff increase provides greater development space for Chinese EVs in overseas markets. "In the past, Chinese cars faced a complex environment in overseas markets, but now the world trade order is showing a multipolar development trend, which has brought relatively independent development space for Chinese cars in various countries." Cui Dongshu believes that there will be better opportunities, especially in intelligent electrification. "The core of intelligent electrification is electrification, and the core of electrification is the industry chain. China has a huge advantage in the electrification industry chain. We believe that in the future, we should strive to develop small and micro EVs and plug-in hybrid models to achieve our expansion in overseas markets." The SHFE announced adjustments to the trading margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for fuel oil and other futures contracts. Starting from the close of settlement on April 10, 2025 (Thursday), the price fluctuation limits for fuel oil and petroleum asphalt futures contracts will be adjusted to 9%, with hedging margin ratios adjusted to 10% and speculative margin ratios adjusted to 11%. The price fluctuation limits for natural rubber futures contracts will be adjusted to 8%, with hedging margin ratios adjusted to 9% and speculative margin ratios adjusted to 10%. The price fluctuation limits for gold and silver futures contracts will be adjusted to 11%, with hedging margin ratios adjusted to 12% and speculative margin ratios adjusted to 13%. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced that starting from the close of settlement on April 10, 2025 (Thursday), the price fluctuation limits for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts will be adjusted to 9%, with hedging margin ratios adjusted to 10% and speculative margin ratios adjusted to 11%. In the US dollar market, the US dollar index fell 0.01% overnight to 102.97. Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said, "As the trade situation continues to be an issue, I think over time, people may bet on the decline of the US dollar's role in global trade." The market is concerned that tariffs will stimulate inflation and hinder economic growth. The Fed meeting minutes showed that Fed policymakers almost unanimously warned last month that the US economy faces the risk of rising inflation while growth slows, with some policymakers pointing out that "difficult trade-offs" may be faced in the future. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the market believes there is a 72% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in June. The market now hopes that Thursday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide more information. In other currencies, European Central Bank Governing Council member Rehn said that since the March interest rate meeting, downside risks have intensified, providing reasons for continuing rate cuts at the April meeting. Tariff increases and increased uncertainty have adversely affected economic growth in the eurozone and Finland in the short term. A significant tariff increase will boost US inflation. But in the eurozone, the impact on inflation may be two-way, with tariff increases increasing price pressures and slowing growth suppressing them. In terms of data, today will see the release of China's March M2 money supply YoY (April 10-17, time uncertain), China's March social financing scale year-to-date, China's March new yuan loans year-to-date, China's March PPI YoY, China's March CPI YoY, US March CPI YoY unadjusted, US March core CPI YoY unadjusted, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 5, and US continuing jobless claims for the week ending March 29. Additionally, it is worth noting: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin participates in a dialogue event at the Washington Economic Club; the Fed releases the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting; Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock speaks; the Bundesbank releases its monthly report; 2025 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid speaks on the economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers a speech titled "Navigating Economic Fog" at a summit and participates in a Q&A session. In the crude oil market, both oil futures rose sharply overnight, with US oil up 5.25% and Brent oil up 4.62%. Oil prices surged, rebounding from a four-year low hit at the start of the session, with bargain hunting emerging after recent sharp declines. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report showed that US crude oil inventories increased last week due to higher imports and exports falling to the lowest since January, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined. The EIA said that in the week ending April 4, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels to 442.3 million barrels, compared with market expectations of an increase of 1.4 million barrels. Data showed that US crude oil net imports increased by 360,000 barrels per day to just under 3 million barrels per day, while exports decreased by 637,000 barrels per day to 3.2 million barrels per day. However, the OPEC+ producer group decided last week to increase May production by 411,000 barrels per day, which analysts believe could push the market into surplus, limiting oil's gains. (Webstock Inc.)