The uncertainty surrounding Myanmar's resumption of production, coupled with the countdown to tariffs, has led to high volatility and divergence in SHFE tin prices. [SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

April 1, 2025, SHFE Tin Futures Most-Traded Contract Daily Review On April 1, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin futures contract (SN2505) closed at 287,480 yuan/mt, up 0.47% intraday, with a cumulative gain of 4.44% over five days. The three-month tin contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) also strengthened, closing at $36,550/mt, up 1.82%, hitting a new high for the year. In the spot market, spot discounts widened, reflecting limited downstream acceptance of high prices. Myanmar Earthquake Impacts Resumption Expectations: A major earthquake in Myanmar at the end of March delayed the resumption symposium for the Manxiang mining area, originally scheduled for April 1, intensifying market concerns over tin ore supply recovery. DRC Conflict Unresolved: Tin ore production in the DRC remains constrained due to ongoing armed conflicts, further tightening raw material supply. China's tin ore imports in January-February plunged 50.15% YoY, while domestic smelting TCs continued to decline, increasing production pressure. High Prices Dampen Procurement: Spot market transactions were sluggish, with downstream companies mainly making just-in-time procurement and showing weak restocking intentions. Despite being in the peak season, high tin prices have led to order delays. Macro Policy Game: The US Trump administration is expected to announce details of its tariff policy on China on April 2, boosting market risk-off sentiment. The US dollar index hovered at 104.3, suppressing non-ferrous metal valuations. In the short term, SHFE tin is expected to hover at highs, with a core fluctuation range of 280,000-290,000 yuan/mt. If Myanmar's resumption is further delayed or the DRC conflict escalates, prices may test the 292,000 yuan resistance level. If tariff policies tighten more than expected or domestic inventory buildup accelerates, prices may test the 275,000 yuan support level.