【SMM Cobalt and Lithium Morning Meeting Summary】Production Costs of Ternary Cathode Materials Remain at a High Level, Prices Stay Relatively Firm

Lithium Ore:

At the beginning of the week, lithium ore prices slightly declined WoW. As lithium carbonate prices hovered at low levels, domestic demand-side acceptance prices for lithium ore decreased. Suppliers with certain lithium ore inventories reduced prices for spodumene concentrates to improve cash flow, leading to a continuous decline in transaction lows and a sustained downward trend in spodumene concentrate prices.
Lepidolite side, as lithium carbonate prices trend downward, downstream lithium chemical plants' acceptance of high-priced lepidolite concentrate continues to weaken, forcing market prices to decline. Lithium carbonate: At the beginning of the week, the price center of spot lithium carbonate transactions showed a slight downward fluctuation. Although the current spot market for lithium carbonate is relatively liquid, the supply of higher-quality lithium carbonate remains tight, providing some support for price firmness among first and second-tier lithium chemical plants. Meanwhile, some traders are promoting transactions with downstream material plants at lower price points to clear old inventory, thereby pulling down the transaction price center of lithium carbonate. In the short term, considering the difficult reversal of the surplus situation in lithium carbonate and the signs of loosening ore prices, lithium carbonate is expected to have some downside room, accompanied by range-bound fluctuations. Lithium hydroxide: At the beginning of the week, lithium hydroxide prices were basically flat WoW. On the demand side, some companies are willing to push for lower discounts in the new cycle of negotiations, but at the current node with strong cost support, lithium chemical plants have a clear intention to stand firm on prices, with overall negotiation discounts being relatively small. Spot transactions in the market are few, and coupled with the downward pressure on prices due to inventory pressure at lithium chemical plants, prices are expected to continue a slight downward trend in the short term. Refined cobalt: Spot prices for refined cobalt remained stable this week. On the supply side, smelters maintained a neutral sentiment for continuous shipments, while overseas shipments pulled back. On the demand side, market inquiries and buying remain weak, and speculative sentiment has slightly cooled. In the short term, supply and demand conditions are expected to remain, and spot prices for refined cobalt may maintain a fluctuating pattern. Intermediate products: Spot prices for cobalt intermediate products remained stable this week. On the supply side, logistics channels from South Africa to Chinese ports remain smooth, but the supply tightening pressure caused by the suspension of cobalt exports from the DRC continues to release. Upstream producers' spot quotations remain high, and the supply of circulating goods remains tight. The psychological expected transaction price gap between upstream and downstream remains large, and market transactions have not improved. Cobalt salts (cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride): Spot prices for cobalt sulphate remained flat this week. On the supply side, upstream salt plants' quotations were basically flat WoW, and old inventory is still being digested. Downstream companies' concentrated procurement has ended, and inquiries and buying remain weak, with the expected transaction price gap still existing and market liquidity not improving. In the short term, the market is expected to continue a "weak balance" fluctuating pattern, and spot prices may fluctuate. At the beginning of the week, cobalt chloride prices fluctuated upward. From a supply perspective, the market is gradually returning to rationality, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and cobalt chloride producers' shipment attitudes have loosened. On the demand side, the peak procurement period for major buyers, Co3O4 manufacturers, has passed, the number of inquiries has decreased, and actual transaction volumes are low. In addition, downstream Co3O4 manufacturers still resist high-priced cobalt salts, and market activity has decreased. These factors may lead to a slight pullback in cobalt chloride prices. Cobalt salts (Co3O4): At the beginning of the week, Co3O4 prices remained stable. On the supply side, most smelters' quotations have stabilized, and the market is gradually returning to rationality. On the demand side, most manufacturers have completed their procurement earlier, so new orders this week are few, market acceptance of high prices has decreased, activity has weakened, and it has entered a buffer period. In the short term, Co3O4 prices are expected to remain at relatively high levels, but due to weak willingness to purchase from downstream LCO manufacturers and some resistance, prices may slightly decline this week. Nickel sulphate: On March 31, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 28,030 yuan/mt, with a quotation range of 27,970-28,550 yuan/mt, and the average price was flat WoW. On the cost side, MHP market circulation is tight, and some nickel sulphate plants have not completed MHP stockpiling for Q2. Due to recent MHP production falling short of expectations, the supply-demand gap is expected to further expand, leading to a continued increase in the MHP price coefficient. Nevertheless, pure nickel production costs may limit the extent of the increase. On the supply side, some nickel salt plants have stopped quoting due to critically low inventories. In addition, some nickel salt plants maintain a firm stance on quotes based on the relatively tight circulation of nickel salts. On the demand side, some precursor plants have a restocking demand due to low raw material inventory levels, and their acceptance of nickel sulphate prices has also increased. Currently, buyers and sellers are still in a game over prices, and nickel sulphate prices are expected to have some upside room in the short term. Ternary cathode precursor: This week, the ternary cathode precursor market performed steadily, with prices for 5-series for consumer electronics, 6-series for consumer electronics, and 8-series for NEV remaining stable. Nickel sulphate, manganese sulphate, and cobalt sulphate prices remained stable overall, with no significant fluctuations. On the demand side, affected by the sharp rise in raw material prices in March, some cathode material manufacturers may sign a small number of orders to stockpile in advance, but overall market sentiment remains cautious, with companies closely monitoring changes in international trade policies and macro conditions. The supply of precursors for power applications still mainly relies on previously signed long-term contracts, while precursors for consumer applications, being more price-sensitive, are still mainly traded in spot orders. On the supply side, rising raw material prices and long-term losses have strengthened precursor manufacturers' willingness to stand firm on prices, and transaction prices remain firm. Long-term contract execution is stable, while spot order pricing is mainly determined through separate negotiations based on nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and manganese sulphate prices. Looking ahead this week, market sentiment and international trade policies may cause slight fluctuations in raw material prices, and precursor prices are expected to remain relatively firm overall, with slight fluctuations. Ternary cathode material: This week, ternary cathode material prices showed slight fluctuations. In terms of raw material costs, nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and manganese sulphate prices remained stable, while lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices slightly declined. Overall market supply still mainly relies on previously signed long-term contracts, and the discount coefficient has not been adjusted, with price increases mainly reflected in spot quotations. In addition, as the procurement order coefficient signed between material plants and upstream precursor suppliers has increased, ternary cathode material production costs remain at a relatively high level, and prices remain relatively firm. In terms of production and orders, affected by the sharp rise in raw material prices in March, some battery cell plants chose to place orders in advance, stockpiling in March to meet subsequent production needs. Meanwhile, overseas demand for ternary cathode materials has recently rebounded, and some material plants' overseas tolling orders have increased, driving overall order conditions to improve, with April production schedules expected to steadily rise. In the short term, ternary cathode material prices are expected to remain firm, fluctuating with raw material prices. LFP: This week, the LFP market remained stable overall, with small price fluctuations. On the raw material side, the average price of lithium carbonate remained stable this week, and processing fees also remained unchanged. However, the price of iron phosphate raw materials has recently shown a slight upward trend, prompting material plants to propose increasing processing fees for Q2 to downstream battery cell plants. On the supply side, LFP material plants' production enthusiasm remained stable this week, but some top-tier enterprises' order volumes have decreased compared to the full production plan at the beginning of the month, and actual production has not met the production schedule expectations, although overall production has increased compared to February. On the demand side, downstream battery cell plants' production schedules have significantly increased compared to February, especially for power battery cells and high-density materials. LFP production growth is expected to slow in April. Iron phosphate: This week, month-end iron phosphate negotiations began. Due to the sharp rise in industrial ammonium raw material prices in March, raw material costs have increased, and iron phosphate companies plan to increase iron phosphate prices by 100-200 yuan/mt, but the negotiation process is not smooth, as downstream LFP companies have limited cost budgets, and price increase plans are hindered. New iron phosphate companies often use low prices to compete for market share. Recently, iron phosphate supply has been relatively sufficient, making price increases difficult. Iron phosphate supply is expected to increase in April, and the market remains optimistic about LFP demand in Q2. LCO: This week, LCO prices slightly declined. As of March 27, the mainstream quotations for 4.2V/4.4V/4.5V LCO were 205,000 yuan/mt, 209,000 yuan/mt, and 220,000 yuan/mt, respectively. Earlier, the sharp rise in upstream raw material Co3O4 prices drove LCO manufacturers to stand firm on prices, but recently, downstream acceptance of high-priced raw materials has been insufficient, transactions have been weak, and Co3O4 prices have slightly declined, leading to a decline in LCO prices. On the supply side, some small and medium-sized LCO companies have stopped taking orders or are only executing previous long-term contracts due to insufficient raw material inventory, while top-tier companies maintain normal production with stable supply chains. In the short term, LCO prices still have upward support, but the increase may further narrow, mainly because the DRC will evaluate the effect of the export ban in April, and if it is extended or the quota policy is adjusted, raw material shortages may intensify. Anode: This week, anode prices remained stable. On the cost side, against the backdrop of a previous decline in low-sulphur petroleum coke prices, anode and cathode actively entered the market to inquire, pushing petroleum coke prices up this week; in terms of oil-based needle coke, supply-demand relationships and costs showed no significant fluctuations, so prices remained stable this week; in terms of graphitisation, constrained by the rapid development of integration, recent downstream demand has rebounded but the extent is relatively limited, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change, but considering the narrow profit margin of graphitisation, prices have been relatively stagnant recently. On the supply side, as raw material costs decrease, anode companies' production enthusiasm has increased. On the demand side, some battery cell companies' purchase volumes have declined due to tariff impacts, and downstream demand recovery may fall short of expectations. In summary, against the backdrop of demand recovery falling short of expectations and supply slightly increasing, battery cell companies' price pressure sentiment is gradually rising, but currently, anode companies mostly use previously high-priced raw materials, so anode prices have been relatively stagnant recently. Looking ahead, driven by the decline in raw material prices, anode material prices may see some degree of decline. Separator: This week, battery separator prices remained stable. Among them, wet-process separator prices have been stable recently, with no significant fluctuations; dry-process separator prices have a higher sentiment for increases, but substantive price adjustments are expected to be delayed until the next round of long-term contract negotiations. From a supply-demand relationship perspective, downstream battery cell companies' separator demand continues to grow steadily, and the capacity utilisation rate of existing separator production lines is also increasing, but it is worth noting that separator manufacturers are still actively promoting capacity expansion plans, so the oversupply situation in the separator market will continue. In summary, the price increase sentiment in the dry-process separator field mainly stems from the current market prices being generally below the industry's average production cost line, but the specific timing and extent of price adjustments still need to be continuously tracked and observed for subsequent market changes. Electrolyte: This week, electrolyte prices remained stable with a slight downward trend. On the cost side, the price of the core raw material LiPF6 has declined, while the prices of solvents and additives and other key raw materials have remained stable, and the overall manufacturing cost of electrolytes has decreased. On the demand side, the recovery pace of the downstream new energy battery field has fallen short of expectations, and terminal customers still maintain a cautious procurement strategy, with current electrolyte procurement demand showing a phased stabilisation characteristic.Supply side, major producers continued the "produce based on sales" model, with the overall industry operating rate remaining low. Comprehensive analysis suggests that in the short term, the market price of electrolyte will be constrained by the unchanged fundamentals of supply and demand, and is expected to maintain a fluctuate rangebound pattern. Sodium-ion battery: This week, the sodium-ion battery industry continued to gain momentum. BYD released its annual report on March 24, achieving a 200Ah battery cell capacity and over 10,000 cycles for its sodium-ion battery, and also realized the deployment of MWh-level energy storage systems. Additionally, HiNa Battery will globally debut its sodium-ion battery commercial vehicle solution and new-generation technology products on March 28. Farasis Energy's sodium-ion batteries have been installed in relevant JMC models, and the 4.5 billion sodium-ion battery project in Jinzhou, Liaoning, has commenced. Some sodium-ion battery concept stocks in the A-share market received leveraged fund additions, with overall performance trending positively, and the industrialisation of sodium-ion batteries is expected to accelerate further. Recycling: Supply side: This week, the prices of lithium chemicals, nickel salts, and cobalt salts oscillated. However, the psychological selling prices of grinding mills and traders remained unchanged. The coefficients for ternary and LCO black mass were basically stable. Most downstream demand sides are not optimistic about the continued rise in cobalt salts, and pure cobalt scrap accounts for less than 10% of the market, with LFP being the main component. Enterprises that collect pure cobalt scrap are relatively fewer compared to ternary, and most enterprises adopt a wait-and-see attitude towards the rising coefficients of pure cobalt scrap when they can choose ternary black mass. On the supply side, LCO scrap accounts for a relatively small proportion in the overall scrap market, with scarce supply, and a small amount of goods are mostly concentrated in the hands of traders. Enterprises, in the face of continuously rising cobalt salts, mostly choose to hold back from selling or sell a small amount at high prices. Cost side: This week, the prices of cobalt salts and nickel salts oscillated, but the previous rise has somewhat repaired the cost and profitability of the grinding end for ternary and pure cobalt scrap. Currently, the profitability of wet-process LCO scrap and ternary scrap hovers around the cost line. However, due to insufficient market supply and the inability of most enterprises to achieve immediate buying and selling of scrap and salt products, some small and medium-sized wet-process enterprises still report being in a state of inversion. Downstream and terminal: This week, the price of DC-side battery cabins remained stable. The average price of 5MWh DC-side battery cabins was 0.43 yuan/Wh; the average price of 3.44/3.77MWh DC-side battery cabins was 0.438 yuan/Wh. After the release of Document No. 136, ESS projects before May 31 were scheduled based on demand, and the price of DC-side battery cabins tended to stabilize, with overall fluctuations being relatively small. Currently, the specific details of ESS participation in the power market mechanism have not been finalized, and owners may continue to wait and see. ESS demand will face short-term downward pressure after June 1, and market demand will fluctuate following the impact of policies after the details are finalized. On March 25, the list of winning candidates for the 300MW/600MWh independent shared ESS project at the Zhanhua Lubei Base in Shandong was announced. The project is located in Zhanhua District, Binzhou City, Shandong Province, and plans to build an LFP battery energy storage system, with a supporting 220kV booster station, which will be connected to the Nanzhao Station via one 220kV line. The first winning candidate quoted 801,459,169.4 yuan, with a unit price of 1.3358 yuan/Wh after conversion. The second winning candidate quoted 799,019,900 yuan, with a unit price of 1.3316 yuan/Wh after conversion. > Order to view SMM new energy product spot historical prices > Click to view SMM new energy industry chain database News: 【Dazhong Mining: The development and utilization plan for lithium ore resources in the Tongtianmiao section of the Jijiaoshan mining area passed expert review】 Dazhong Mining announced that recently, the "Development and Utilization Plan for Lithium Ore Resources in the Tongtianmiao Section of the Jijiaoshan Mining Area, Linwu County, Hunan Province" submitted by its wholly-owned subsidiary, Chenzhou City Chengtai Mining Investment Co., Ltd., passed the expert review organized by the Strategic Research Center for Oil and Gas Resources of the Ministry of Natural Resources. As of August 31, 2024, the lithium ore volume in the Tongtianmiao section of the Jijiaoshan mining area in Linwu County was 489.872 million mt, with a Li2O mineral volume of 1.3135 million mt, equivalent to 3.2443 million mt of LCE, showing obvious resource advantages. The reviewed "Plan" adopts a mining method of open-pit mining first, followed by underground mining, with an open-pit mining scale of 20 million mt/year and an underground mining scale of 8 million mt/year, placing the mining scale among the top domestic lithium mining companies. The company is accelerating the preparation of the "Mine Geological Environmental Protection and Land Reclamation Plan" for the Tongtianmiao section of the Jijiaoshan mining area, after which it will apply for a mining license. 【MIIT Vice Minister Xin Guobin: Comprehensive rectification of "cut-throat competition" in the automotive industry】 MIIT Vice Minister Xin Guobin stated at the China EV100 Forum (2025) that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will: first, further strengthen technological breakthroughs. Second, accelerate the industrialisation of autonomous driving. Third, actively stabilize and expand automotive consumption. Formulate a new round of work plans for stable growth in the automotive industry, implement the trade-in policy for cars, the renewal policy for new energy city buses and power batteries, and continue to carry out new energy vehicle rural promotion activities and pilot projects to improve charging and swapping facilities in counties. Fourth, promote the digital transformation of the entire industry chain. Promote the application of artificial intelligence in automotive R&D, design, production, operation, and management, and develop and promote evaluation standards for digital transformation service providers in the automotive industry. Fifth, further deepen industry management reforms. Comprehensively rectify "cut-throat competition," carry out special law enforcement actions against online unfair competition, and create a good market environment. (Cailian Press) 【CPCA's Cui Dongshu: Expected wholesale sales of passenger NEVs to reach 15.7 million units, up 28% YoY】 At the China EV100 Forum 2025, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association, predicted that retail sales of passenger cars in 2025 will increase by 2% YoY, reaching 23.3 million units. Among them, domestic sales will reach 23 million units, up 3% YoY. It is expected that wholesale sales of passenger NEVs in 2025 will reach 15.7 million units, up 28% YoY. SMM New Energy Research Team Cong Wang 021-51666838 Rui Ma 021-51595780 Ziya Lin 86-2151666902 Disheng Feng 021-51666714 Yanlin Lv 021-20707875 Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711 Zihan Wang 021-51666914 Jie Wang 021-51595902 He Zhang 021-20707850 Haohan Zhang 021-51666752 Yang Xu 021-51666760 Bolin Chen 021-51666836 Mengqi Xu 021-20707868