(Incomplete) SMM Metal Production Data Release for March 2025

Base Metal Production Overview in March 2025

Copper Cathode

Aluminum

Alumina

According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in March 2025 (31 days) increased by 8.86% MoM and 11.32% YoY. By the end of March, China's existing metallurgical-grade alumina capacity was around 105.02 million mt, with operating capacity down 1.68% MoM and an operating rate of 84.64%.

During the month, operating capacity at domestic alumina refineries varied, but overall, national metallurgical alumina operating capacity declined MoM. In terms of new capacity, some newly commissioned capacity in Guangxi began production. On the reduction side, as alumina prices continued to fall while ore prices remained high, some alumina producers opted for maintenance due to losses, while others reduced production, leading to a pullback in operating rates. Although recent alumina operating capacity has decreased, supply still exceeds domestic aluminum production demand. Additionally, with overseas alumina prices falling, the export window for domestic alumina has closed, and except for some fixed flows to Russia, export demand for alumina is limited. In the short term, the spot market for alumina is expected to remain relatively loose, with spot prices likely to continue fluctuating downward.

Outlook for next month: Currently, many alumina refineries have reported plans for phased maintenance in April, and some have adjusted their operating capacity. Moreover, new capacity in Guangxi and Hebei is nearing its originally planned commissioning time, but the exact timing remains uncertain, and SMM will continue to track this. Overall, domestic metallurgical alumina operating capacity in April may see further reductions, with an expected operating capacity of 87.23 million mt/year. Continued attention should be paid to changes in alumina capacity and import/export dynamics.

Overseas Aluminum

According to SMM statistics, overseas aluminum production in March 2025 increased by 2.1% YoY, with an average monthly operating rate of 88.5%, up 0.2% MoM and 0.9% YoY.

The increase in overseas aluminum production this month mainly came from resumption increments. Germany's Trimet successfully resumed operations at three plants, with the Essen (165,000 mt/year) and Hamburg (135,000 mt/year) plants expected to reach full capacity by mid-year, while the Voerde (95,000 mt/year) plant plans to operate at full capacity in Q4 2025. The remaining capacity to be resumed totals about 94,000 mt. However, Rio Tinto's Tiwai Point smelter in New Zealand has paused its resumption process, with the restart delayed until August 31 to ensure Meridian Energy can secure 50MW of power supply this winter. Previously, the smelter had proactively reduced power demand by 205MW during the winter of 2024, cutting annual capacity by about 125,000 mt. After winter, capacity gradually resumed from October, with full production originally planned for April this year. However, due to concerns about winter 2025 power supply, Rio Tinto and its power supplier Meridian Energy agreed to pause the resumption process to secure 50MW of power. The plant's existing capacity is 365,000 mt, with the resumption progress currently at about 70%.

EGA announced its 2024 production results this month, with liquid aluminum production increasing to 2.69 million mt, up by 30,000 mt.

Looking ahead to next month, overseas aluminum production is expected to increase by 2% YoY, with a capacity utilization rate of about 87.7%, down 0.8% MoM, as Vedanta Balco's aluminum smelter in India is expected to begin commissioning expanded capacity.

Overseas Metallurgical-Grade Alumina

According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production in February 2025 increased by 2.9% YoY, with an average operating rate of 81.9%, up 0.2% MoM and 2.1% YoY.

On March 14, 2025, Rusal announced it would acquire a 26% stake in India's Pioneer Aluminium Industries Limited for $243.75 million, with plans to increase its stake to 50% in phases. This move aims to reduce reliance on external alumina supply. Pioneer owns a 1.5 million mt/year metallurgical-grade alumina refinery in Andhra Pradesh, India. The plant was shut down in 2015 due to funding issues, resumed operations in April 2022, and generated about 35 billion rupees in revenue in Q3 2023. Post-transaction, Rusal, Pioneer, and KCap Group will supply bauxite and obtain alumina based on their shareholdings to stabilize the supply chain and optimize costs.

Looking ahead to next month, SMM expects overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production to increase by 3.7% YoY. The operating rate is expected to reach 82.1%, up 0.2% MoM and 2.7% YoY.

Primary Lead

Secondary Lead

Refined Zinc

SMM China's refined zinc production in March 2025 increased by nearly 14% MoM and over 4% YoY, with a cumulative YoY decline of about 3% from January to March, slightly above expectations. Domestic zinc alloy production in March also increased MoM. Entering March, domestic smelter production increased significantly, driven by a rebound in zinc concentrate TCs and rising sulfuric acid prices, boosting smelter enthusiasm. In addition to three more production days, the resumption of Chinese New Year maintenance in Hunan, Yunnan, Guangxi, and Sichuan, as well as increased production in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Henan, contributed to the main increments. Meanwhile, maintenance in Hunan, Gansu, and Guizhou contributed minor reductions. Overall, March production exceeded expectations.

SMM expects domestic refined zinc production in April 2025 to increase by 4% MoM and over 12% YoY, with a cumulative YoY increase of about 1% from January to April. Overall, smelter production will continue to increase, mainly due to improved smelter profits. Except for minor routine maintenance in Yunnan and Liaoning, other companies have postponed maintenance plans. Additionally, previously halted production in Hunan has largely resumed, and companies in Gansu, Qinghai, Yunnan, Shanxi, and Hunan are actively increasing production, contributing to the main increments. Smelter production will continue to rise.

Refined Tin

Refined Nickel

NPI

Indonesian NPI

Nickel Sulphate

Battery-Grade Manganese Sulphate

EMD

Mn3O4

High-Carbon Ferrochrome

Stainless Steel

EMM

SiMn Alloy

Silicon Metal

Polysilicon

Actual polysilicon production in March increased by about 6.7% MoM compared to January, mainly due to more calendar days. Overall, enterprise operating rates were relatively stable, with some planned commissioning delays and slight declines in operating rates at a few second- and third-tier enterprises, mainly based on downstream operational considerations. In April, domestic polysilicon enterprise operating rates will vary, but overall production schedules are expected to rise due to new capacity from Asia Silicon.

PV Module

Solar Cell

PV Film

PV film production schedules in March increased by 28.33% MoM, mainly driven by the dual policy nodes of "430" and "531," which spurred a surge in distributed PV demand, increased module production schedules, and robust downstream demand, leading to higher film production. Under the strong pull of the PV "rush for installations," film production in April is expected to continue rising.

PV-Grade EVA

PV-grade EVA production schedules in March increased by 31.35% MoM, mainly due to some petrochemical companies switching to PV-grade EVA and strong end-use demand, leading to higher PV-grade EVA production. According to SMM, some petrochemical companies plan to switch to PV-grade EVA in April, and PV-grade EVA production is expected to rise again.

PV Glass

Domestic PV glass production began to increase in March, up 15.18% MoM compared to February. March had three more production days, and the rapid recovery of module production schedules on the demand side, along with a positive trend in end-use demand, led to a supply shortage due to previous reductions in supply. As a result, previously idled kilns in China began to resume production, and the number of newly commissioned kilns increased, leading to a rapid rise in glass production. Domestic PV glass production in April is expected to continue increasing.

DMC

Domestic silicone DMC production in March decreased by 5.81% MoM and 3.84% YoY. Although March had more production days than February, the joint production cut and price support strategy by silicone monomer enterprises led to varying degrees of reduced operating loads across all monomer enterprises, resulting in a decline in DMC production. For April, as domestic monomer enterprises continue to halt production to support prices, production is expected to continue declining, with the industry operating rate projected to fall to around 65%.

Magnesium Ingot

Magnesium Alloy

Magnesium Powder

Titanium Dioxide

Sponge Titanium

Light Rare Earth

Medium-Heavy Rare Earth

NdFeB

Domestic NdFeB magnet production in March 2025 increased by about 14.7% YoY. According to SMM surveys, although order intake at magnetic material enterprises has not met expectations, it has improved compared to the same period last year. Currently, favorable policies in various end-use sectors have provided some support for NdFeB demand. However, the polarization in the magnetic material market is becoming increasingly evident, with downstream orders gradually concentrating in top-tier enterprises, compressing orders for small and medium-sized enterprises. Overall market sentiment remains cautious.

Looking ahead to April, under the joint push of a series of favorable policies, end-use demand may show a growth trend. However, as industries gradually approach saturation, the extent of demand growth may be limited. Overall, although downstream demand support may keep NdFeB market production growing in April, the expected increase may be relatively mild.

Molybdenum Concentrate

Ferromolybdenum

Ammonium Paratungstate

According to SMM data, China's ammonium paratungstate (APT) production in March increased by about 3% MoM. The tungsten market remained stagnant during the month, with tight raw material supply causing shortages at smelters, leading to lower-than-expected production growth. Additionally, downstream demand remained sluggish in March, with spot orders very scarce, forcing smelters to focus on long-term contract orders, resulting in relatively small overall production growth.

Looking ahead to April, as downstream market demand gradually recovers, just-in-time procurement is expected to increase, and APT production may see some growth. However, constrained by overall limited demand, the growth is expected to be modest.

Silver

Silver Nitrate

Antimony Ingot

According to SMM estimates, China's antimony ingot production (including antimony ingot, crude antimony conversion, and antimony cathode) in March 2025 increased by about 13.8% MoM. Specifically, among the 33 surveyed entities, 12 manufacturers were shut down, six fewer than last month; 17 manufacturers reduced production, five more than last month; and four manufacturers maintained normal production, one more than last month. From the perspective of antimony ingot production, March production rebounded after a decline in February, which many market participants consider normal as many manufacturers resumed production from February maintenance or temporary shutdowns, gradually returning to normal operations.However, some market participants noted that overall production remains at a low level, primarily due to the inability of many overseas ore sources to enter the domestic market, coupled with winter factors such as frozen ore sources in the north, which have kept mining operations suspended. Domestic raw material supply remains relatively tight, and the reluctance of antimony ore suppliers to sell persists. Many manufacturers indicated that as the weather warms up, production in April is expected to continue its recovery trend. Market participants anticipate that national antimony ingot production in April 2025 is likely to continue rising compared to March, with the possibility of remaining flat also existing, while the chance of a slight decline is relatively small.

Note: Since May 2022, SMM has been publishing the assessed production of national antimony ingots (including antimony ingots, crude antimony conversion, antimony cathode, etc.). Thanks to SMM's high coverage rate in the antimony industry, SMM surveyed a total of 33 antimony ingot producers across 8 provinces, with a total sample capacity exceeding 20,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.

Sodium Pyroantimonate

According to SMM's assessment, China's production of first-grade sodium pyroantimonate in March 2025 is expected to increase by approximately 30.65% MoM. This rebound follows several months of significant declines. Many market participants consider this a normal phenomenon, as antimony prices have been rising since the end of February, prompting many sodium pyroantimonate manufacturers to raise their prices. With improved profitability, interest in signing orders with glass factories has also increased. Many manufacturers attributed the production increase in March to securing more orders. Detailed data shows that among SMM's 11 surveyed manufacturers, 2 were either shut down or in the debugging phase in March, while 6-7 manufacturers saw production growth, with a few experiencing declines, leading to an overall increase in production. Market participants expect that national sodium pyroantimonate production in April is unlikely to continue rising significantly compared to March, with the possibility of remaining flat or increasing slightly being more likely.

Note: Since July 2023, SMM has been publishing the assessed production of national sodium pyroantimonate. Thanks to SMM's high coverage rate in the antimony industry, SMM surveyed a total of 11 sodium pyroantimonate producers across 5 provinces, with a total sample capacity exceeding 75,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of 99%.

Refined Bismuth

According to SMM's assessment, China's refined bismuth production in March 2025 is expected to increase by approximately 11.61% MoM compared to February. This rebound follows several months of significant declines to a low point. Market participants noted that the Chinese New Year holiday in February led to shutdowns at many enterprises, causing bismuth production to drop to a low. Therefore, the return to normal production levels and the rebound in March were expected. From the production situation of manufacturers, some were still undergoing equipment maintenance, while many others saw significant recovery, leading to an overall increase in domestic production. Detailed data shows that among SMM's 24 surveyed manufacturers, 6 saw significant production increases in March, while the rest experienced relatively small changes or slight declines. Many market participants expect that production at national bismuth manufacturers will further stabilize in April, with refined bismuth production likely to remain steady or increase slightly. However, considering that raw material supply may remain tight, the extent of the production rebound will be somewhat limited.

Note: Since October 2022, SMM has been publishing the assessed production of national refined bismuth. Thanks to SMM's high coverage rate in the bismuth industry, SMM surveyed a total of 24 refined bismuth producers across 8 provinces, with a total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.

Lithium Carbonate

Lithium Hydroxide

Cobalt Sulphate

Co3O4

Ternary Cathode Precursor

Ternary Cathode Material

Iron Phosphate

In March, domestic iron phosphate production increased by 10% MoM and surged 81% YoY. Supply side, most iron phosphate manufacturers increased their production schedules in March compared to February, leading to a significant rise in supply. Some companies had ample orders, operating at full capacity. Additionally, new entrants in the iron phosphate market are gradually ramping up capacity, with production expected to continue rising.

Demand side, the demand for lithium iron phosphate began to grow steadily in March. However, some companies saw order reductions due to price and project matching issues, leading to fewer orders. Meanwhile, other companies, benefiting from significant product and price advantages, saw a notable increase in orders, especially those requiring externally purchased iron phosphate, driving overall demand growth.

Cost side, March was the spring plowing and fertilizer preparation season, and the price of industrial-grade MAP, a key raw material for ammonium-based iron phosphate production, surged significantly, leading to a notable increase in production costs. This has prompted companies to consider raising prices in April.

In April, as the lithium battery market gradually enters its peak season, iron phosphate manufacturers are expected to further increase their production schedules, with production likely to grow by 5% MoM and 68% YoY.

Lithium Iron Phosphate

Lithium Cobalt Oxide

Lithium Manganese Oxide

*Survey Methodology

SMM's production survey is conducted by professional analysts through phone calls and on-site visits, regularly tracking monthly production of Chinese metal manufacturers and issuing China's metal production reports.

The survey ensures basic coverage of samples and continuously expands it, while considering factors such as capacity scale, geographical distribution, and enterprise nature to reasonably select and allocate samples, ensuring the representativeness of each sub-item data.

At the end of each month, the data is released through official channels such as the SMM official website (www.smm.cn), WeChat subscription account (Today's Nonferrous Metals), and mobile site (m.smm.cn).

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