The Power Battery Industry Faces Another Reshuffle! Who Is Losing Momentum? Who Is Overtaking?

In recent years, "structural surplus in capacity" and "destocking" have been key words surrounding the development of the power battery industry. According to statistics from the research institution EVTank, the inventory of power batteries across the entire industry chain reached 164.8 GWh in 2022, hitting a historical high, which significantly increased the pressure for destocking in 2023. In 2023, a total of 52 power battery enterprises in China achieved EV installations, with the top 10 enterprises accounting for 96.8%, while the remaining 42 enterprises accounted for only 3.2%, approximately 12.4 GWh. Wu Hui, General Manager of the Research Department at the Yiwei Economic Research Institute and President of the China Battery Industry Research Institute, pointed out that the overall capacity utilization rate of Chinese power battery enterprises is not high, with only two of the top five enterprises reaching a 70% capacity utilization rate. Wu Hui analyzed in 2023 that, from a long-term market perspective, there is no significant issue of overcapacity in the global battery industry; however, China currently faces the risk of "structural" surplus and "short-to-medium-term" low capacity utilization. It may not be until the second half of 2024 that inventory levels reach a more reasonable level. Looking at the investment and expansion projects in the battery and new energy industry chain in 2024, data compiled by Battery Network from public company announcements and reports show that out of 279 projects, 229 have disclosed investment amounts, with a total investment of 628.188 billion yuan. Both the number of projects and the investment amount have significantly decreased. In terms of investment enterprises, the pace of domestic expansion by top-tier enterprises in 2024 has been restrained and slowed, with the main investment focus shifting overseas. New domestic investment projects are mostly from second and third-tier enterprises and new entrants. In recent years, the competitive landscape of domestic power battery installations has tended to stabilize, but entering 2025, the stable position of industry leaders has been disrupted. In February, the ranking of installations underwent significant changes, with the market share of several enterprises declining MoM, some enterprises losing momentum, and others overtaking, marking the beginning of a new round of reshuffling. The ranking of power battery installations has changed dramatically. Data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance shows that in February, a total of 38 power battery enterprises in China's NEV market achieved installation support, a decrease of 2 YoY. The top 3, top 5, and top 10 power battery enterprises had installations of 25.4 GWh, 28.8 GWh, and 32.5 GWh, accounting for 73.0%, 82.7%, and 93.2% of the total installations, respectively. The share of the top 10 enterprises decreased by 3.5 percentage points YoY. Specifically, in February, among the top 15 power battery enterprises in China, BYD, Gotion High-tech, EVE, Inpower Battery, LG Energy Solution, DFD, and Yuanhang Jinli saw positive growth in market share MoM, with Inpower Battery showing the most significant increase, entering the top ten for the first time and ranking eighth. On the other hand, CATL, CALB, SVOLT Energy Technology, REPT Battero, Sunwoda, Jidian New Energy, Zenergy, and CORNEX New Energy experienced a decline in market share MoM, with CATL seeing the largest drop, down 2.63% MoM. In terms of ranking changes, in February, Gotion High-tech and SVOLT Energy Technology saw their rankings rise YoY, up 3 and 2 places, respectively; CALB, Sunwoda, LG Energy Solution, Zenergy, and DFD saw their rankings decline to varying degrees YoY; CATL, BYD, EVE, REPT Battero, and Jidian New Energy saw no change in their rankings YoY; Inpower Battery, Yuanhang Jinli, and CORNEX New Energy were new entrants to the rankings YoY. The performance in February may mark the beginning of a reshuffling period. Battery Network also noted that as early as 2022, to ensure supply chain security, several global mainstream automakers actively entered the power battery field through self-research and self-construction. By 2025, the results of automakers' self-developed batteries have become prominent. Although the current share of self-developed power battery installations by automakers is still relatively small, the rapid evolution cannot be ignored. In terms of rankings, GAC's Inpower Battery and Geely's Jidian New Energy have already positioned themselves among the top 10 power battery installation manufacturers. Top-tier enterprises have aggressively expanded production. To respond to market changes, entering 2025, top-tier power battery enterprises have aggressively launched a new round of expansion to seize more market share. On March 21, CATL's Luoyang Base Phase III and IV projects officially commenced in Yibin District, Luoyang City, Henan Province. It is reported that the total investment for the Phase III and IV projects is 18 billion yuan, with plans to be completed and operational by the end of October 2026. On March 15, CATL's Zero-Carbon City Strategic Cooperation and Dongying CATL Zero-Carbon Industrial Park project were officially signed. According to the agreement, Dongying City, Shandong Province, and CATL will leverage their respective advantages to jointly build CATL's first high-proportion green electricity direct supply zero-carbon industrial park in China. The first phase will construct a 40 GWh lithium battery green intelligent manufacturing base in Kenli District, Dongying, creating a "zero-carbon factory + lighthouse factory" dual high-standard demonstration project, forming a full-chain green industrial cluster; the second phase will be launched at an appropriate time to further expand capacity. On March 1, the Fuding Times Lithium-ion Battery Production Base No. 5 Super Factory project officially topped out, with a construction period of 4 months and 10 days. It is reported that the Fuding Times No. 5 Super Factory project has a single building area of 230,000 m², equipped with 4 internationally leading new energy battery super production lines and intelligent manufacturing equipment, with an annual production capacity of 25 GWh of new energy power batteries. The project is expected to be operational by August 2025. In February, the Environmental Protection Bureau of Yanzhou District, Jining City, Shandong Province, released the proposed approval opinion for the environmental impact assessment document of the "Shandong Times New Energy Battery Industry Base Expansion Project" by Shandong Times, a wholly-owned subsidiary of CATL. The news shows that Shandong Times plans to build the "Shandong Times New Energy Battery Industry Base Expansion Project," which will achieve an annual production capacity of 30 GWh of lithium-ion power batteries. According to the company's development plan, an additional 30 GWh of capacity will be added to the "Shandong Times New Energy Battery Industry Base Expansion Project." After the completion of this project, the company will form an annual production capacity of 60 GWh of lithium-ion power batteries. On January 2, the Fuzhou Municipal Government of Fujian Province and CATL signed the "Zero-Carbon City Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement." On the same day, the signing ceremony of the "CATL Luoyuan New Energy Base Project Investment Contract" was held. The CATL Fujian Fuzhou Luoyuan New Energy Base project is located in the Songshan A area of the Fuzhou Taiwanese Investment Zone, with plans to invest in and build a battery base with an annual production capacity of 40 GWh. Overseas, CATL has already laid out three battery factories in Europe. On January 21, Pan Jian, Co-Chairman of CATL, stated at the Davos Forum that CATL is expected to announce new joint venture factory projects with other OEMs in Europe this year. In addition to CATL, leading enterprises such as CALB, EVE, Sunwoda, Gotion High-tech, and BYD have also accelerated their expansion pace. On March 25, CALB's Chengdu Project Phase II and 15 other projects were collectively launched. It is reported that the CALB Chengdu Project Phase II, which broke ground this time, has a total investment of 12 billion yuan, mainly constructing production workshops, structural component warehouses, finished product warehouses, power station rooms, fire water tanks and pump rooms, storage warehouses, logistics and storage centers, boiler rooms, sewage treatment stations, and other production and auxiliary facilities, with plans to be operational by Q2 2026. After the completion of the project, it will form an annual production capacity of approximately 30 GWh of power batteries and energy storage systems. According to foreign media reports on February 21, CALB will invest 2 billion euros (approximately 15.1684 billion yuan) to build a lithium battery factory in Sines, Portugal. On February 5, CALB's high-performance lithium battery project officially commenced in Tongxiang High-tech City, Xiamen. The project has a total investment of 15 billion yuan, with a planned capacity of 30 GWh. After the completion of the project, CALB's Xiamen base will form an annual production capacity of 60 GWh, becoming a green, modern, and intelligent new energy benchmark base. To meet the urgent delivery needs of downstream customers, on March 20, EVE announced that it plans to issue convertible corporate bonds with a total face value of 5 billion yuan to unspecified objects on March 24, with a term of six years from the date of issuance. It is reported that as of the end of September 2024, the company's cylindrical LFP batteries have received a total of approximately 81 GWh of customer indicative demand for the next five years; the company's ternary large cylindrical batteries have received a total of approximately 483 GWh of customer indicative demand for the next five years. EVE plans to use the funds raised, after deducting issuance costs, entirely for the 23 GWh cylindrical LFP energy storage power battery project and the 21 GWh large cylindrical passenger vehicle power battery project. On March 13, according to multiple media reports, the Thailand National Target Industry Competitiveness Enhancement Committee passed a resolution approving Sunwoda's subsidiary, Sunwoda Automotive Energy Technology (Thailand) Co., Ltd., to invest over 50 billion baht in Thailand to produce batteries for EVs and energy storage systems (ESS). On February 24, the 2025 Q1 project collective commencement and key project on-site promotion meeting in Tangshan City, Hebei Province, was held at the site of the Tangshan Gotion 10 GWh new energy heavy-duty truck battery cell project. It is reported that the Tangshan Gotion 10 GWh new energy heavy-duty truck battery cell project has a total investment of 3.5 billion yuan, covering an area of 159.2 mu, with a total construction area of 60,000 m², mainly constructing a 10 GWh new energy heavy-duty truck power battery production line, and supporting the construction of the upstream and downstream industry chain of power batteries, including clean production workshops, Pack assembly production lines, testing and inspection production lines, and other supporting and auxiliary facilities. After the completion of the project, the combined capacity with the earlier project will reach 30 GWh. On February 18, the 2025 Q1 major project commencement (completion) activity was held in Qingxiu District, Nanning City, Guangxi, during which the Guangxi FinDreams Battery three-module project officially commenced construction. The news shows that the Guangxi FinDreams Battery three-module project is invested and constructed by FinDreams Battery, a subsidiary of BYD (002594), with a planned area of 380 mu, constructing modern battery production workshops and supporting infrastructure, focusing on the layout of two power battery production lines. After the completion of the project, it will add an annual production capacity of approximately 7 GWh. New variables will intensify market competition. At the same time, the rapid development of the solid-state battery industry is also bringing a new variable to the reshaping of the power battery industry landscape. Entering 2025, automakers such as VOYAH, Mercedes-Benz, GAC Aion, FAW, BYD, Changan Automobile, Toyota, and SAIC have disclosed the timetable for the deployment or mass production of solid-state batteries. On February 25, VOYAH initiated the third-generation solid-state battery technology iteration. The new-generation power battery system will maintain an energy density of 300 Wh/kg, increase the charge rate to 3~5C, reduce the electrolyte content to 0%, and achieve operation in an extremely wide temperature range. On February 24, Mercedes-Benz officially launched road testing of a test vehicle based on a new solid-state battery test project. Tests showed that the pure electric EQS test vehicle equipped with this battery increased its driving range by 25%, easily exceeding 1,000 kilometers on a single charge, with the entire battery system's energy density reaching 450 Wh/kg, far surpassing its peers. On February 19, GAC Aion announced that "progress in solid-state batteries will be specifically disclosed at the (GAC) Technology Day in April." GAC Aion's new-type battery (solid-state, cylindrical) technology development project has completed approval, with an investment of 181 million yuan and a construction period of 5 months.On February 16, De Ping Wang, Chief Scientist of China FAW Group Corporation, revealed that China FAW began R&D on all-solid-state batteries in 2014, guided by the needs of complete vehicles, and is expected to achieve small-scale application by 2027. On February 14, Hua Jun Sun, CTO of Shenzhen BYD Lithium Battery Co., Ltd., disclosed at an industry forum that BYD had already produced a 60Ah all-solid-state battery in 2024, and plans to initiate batch demonstration and vehicle application around 2027, with large-scale deployment expected after 2030. On February 9, Changan Automobile released the Jinzhongzhao solid-state battery, with an energy density of 400Wh/kg and a driving range of over 1,500km on a full charge. Changan Automobile plans to debut a functional prototype vehicle with solid-state batteries by the end of 2025, complete vehicle verification in 2026, and gradually achieve mass production of all-solid-state batteries in 2027. On January 26, foreign media reported that a research team from Kyoto University and Toyota Motor Corporation successfully increased the volumetric equivalent capacity of the cathode in "all-solid-state fluoride-ion batteries" to more than three times that of lithium-ion batteries. If this battery is put into use, its volumetric energy density is expected to be more than twice that of current lithium-ion batteries, and researchers plan to apply it to EVs after 2035. On January 17, SAIC disclosed the latest progress in solid-state battery vehicle applications on its investor interaction platform. SAIC stated that SAIC Qingtao is committed to innovative research on materials, battery cells, and systems, developing and producing a new generation of high-safety, cost-effective solid-state batteries with independent intellectual property rights. The Zhiji L6 Light Year Edition, equipped with the first-generation solid-state battery, has been submitted to the MIIT. The "China Solid-State Battery Technology and Industrialisation Development Status and Trend Research Report (2025)" jointly released by research institutions EVTank, the EVI Economic Research Institute, and the China Battery Industry Research Institute shows that China's semi-solid-state battery shipments exceeded 3GWh in 2024, and all-solid-state batteries are already in the sample and pilot stage. EVTank analysis indicates that with the introduction of artificial intelligence, the paradigm of material R&D is changing, significantly improving the R&D efficiency of all-solid-state batteries, increasing the possibility of early industrialisation. Coupled with the intense industry progress, industry players view 2027 as a critical period for the mass production of all-solid-state batteries. EVTank pointed out that after years of R&D and pilot testing, the single performance indicators of China's solid-state battery products have continuously broken through. The all-solid-state battery samples disclosed by the industry have an energy density of over 700Wh/kg, a cycle life of more than 3,000 cycles, and a charge rate of 5C, with the technical foundation for industrialisation becoming increasingly solid. Conclusion: 2025 marks the final year of achieving the goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan and will be a critical year for the battery and new energy sector to move towards high-quality advanced development. At this important period, top-tier enterprises in the power battery industry are expanding production to capture a larger market share, automakers' self-built power battery factories have shown significant results and are expected to gain greater development opportunities, and the R&D and industrialisation of new technologies such as solid-state batteries are intensifying market competition. The power battery industry reshuffle will enter the "fast lane." Overall, the expansion wave is a catalyst for industry reshuffle, not a cure. 2025 will verify a truth: the competition in power batteries is essentially a dual marathon of technological iteration speed and cash flow endurance. Looking ahead, the power battery industry will continue to move forward amidst reshuffling and expansion. What the future landscape of vehicle power batteries will be, let us wait and see!