Total Steel Exports Decline Continuously, Port Departures from Guangdong and Guangxi Soar! What Happened in the Export Market?

Published: Mar 24, 2025 19:28

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Overall, the main exporters' order-taking situation was moderate in the earlier period. The export reduction from Vietnam and some countries during Ramadan was offset by Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and Malaysia. Therefore, China's steel exports in March may not see a significant decrease MoM; however, considering that most traders have recently reported poor performance of major steel export products and order-taking, this data is expected to become evident in late April. Thus, SMM predicts that steel exports in April will decline 10%-15% MoM...

Weekly steel port departures have reached below the 2024 median. According to SMM statistics, as of March 24, 2025, China faced 124 anti-dumping policies in 2024. The increase in the number of anti-dumping cases has exacerbated the difficulties for China's steel exports. After the "rush export" wave in September and October last year, steel exports experienced a decline. Then, after Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum products from all countries, steel exports peaked again before declining once more. As of March 21, 2025, according to SMM shipping data, total port departures from China were 2.3614 million mt, down 11% MoM, reaching below the 2024 median for steel exports. Data source: SMM Steel Panorama Shipping

Ramadan impact, some countries' steel imports from China decreased, but others increased. Since March, Indonesia, India, Thailand, and Vietnam have seen significant MoM decreases in steel imports from China. On one hand, these are countries that initiated more anti-dumping investigations against Chinese steel products in 2024. On the other hand, March is Ramadan in India, Indonesia, and Thailand, and the arrival of traditional holidays has weakened the local steel import market, slowing down procurement demand. For Vietnam, on February 21, the Vietnamese authorities announced that they would impose provisional tariffs on HRC from China starting March 7. This led to a surge in China's steel exports in February, but by March, narrow coils could no longer be exported, resulting in an overall MoM decrease of 27.79% in exports. Table 1 - Countries with larger MoM decreases in China's steel exports (January-February 2025) (mt). Data source: SMM Steel Panorama Shipping

While some countries saw a decrease in steel imports, others, such as Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and Malaysia, saw significant MoM increases in steel imports from China. Table 2 - Countries with larger MoM increases in China's steel exports (January-February 2025) (mt). Data source: SMM Steel Panorama Shipping

Impact of Vietnam's anti-dumping measures: Since March, China's steel exports have concentrated in southern ports. The Vietnamese authorities announced that they would start imposing provisional anti-dumping duties on HRC from China on March 7. Due to shipping constraints, since March, China's steel export ports have been more concentrated in Guangdong and Guangxi, with port departures increasing by 58.89% MoM. In contrast, northern ports saw varying degrees of MoM decreases, with Tianjin New Port experiencing a 46.71% decline. Figure 1 - Steel port departure data from southern and northern ports (February-March 2025) (mt). Data source: SMM Steel Panorama Shipping

China's steel exports may continue to decline in April. According to the SMM survey, the reduction in HRC exports to Southeast Asia due to anti-dumping measures is quite noticeable, while exports of unaffected varieties, such as slabs, wire rods, billets, sections, and wide coils, have increased. Considering that steel mills generally have certain export targets, the impact of anti-dumping on traders is greater than on steel mills. Data source: SMM

Overall, the order-taking situation for major export entities was moderate earlier. The export reductions in Vietnam and some countries during Ramadan were offset by increases in Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and Malaysia, so it is unlikely that there will be a significant MoM decrease in China's steel exports in March. However, given that many traders have recently reported poor conditions for major export varieties and order-taking, this data may become evident in late April. Therefore, SMM predicts that steel exports in April will decrease by about 10%-15% MoM.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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