Market Sentiment Improves, Iron Ore Prices Strengthen [SMM Brief Comment]

Published: Mar 24, 2025 16:36 (GMT+8)

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Iron ore futures fluctuated downward throughout the day. The most-traded I2505 contract closed at 779.5, with a daily gain of 2.43%. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm for selling; steel mills were cautious and observing; market transaction sentiment was average. Mainstream transaction prices increased by 15-20 yuan/mt from last Friday; SMM shipping data showed that the total global iron ore shipments this week were 32.1 million mt, up 4.6% MoM. Among them, Australian shipments increased slightly by 3% MoM; Brazilian shipments were 5.36 million mt, down 9.4% MoM; non-mainstream mines saw a significant increase in shipments by 21.5%. SMM's total iron ore arrivals in China were 29.17 million mt, up 33.38% MoM to a higher level. The continuous rebound in pig iron production and the continued growth in end-use consumption provided some support to ore prices. Additionally, as the pessimistic sentiment from last week was released, market sentiment improved this week, supporting a shift from weak to strong ore prices. However, considering the ongoing disruptions from reduction news and some market participants' expectations of negative feedback, the upward space for iron ore was constrained...

Today, the Dalian iron ore futures fluctuated downward throughout the day. The most-traded I2505 contract closed at 779.5, with a daily gain of 2.43%. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in selling; steel mills were cautious and observant, with some mills experiencing moderate sales of finished products and actively restocking; market transaction sentiment was average. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction prices for PB fines were around 775-779 yuan/mt, up 15-20 yuan/mt WoW from Friday. In Tangshan, the transaction prices for PB fines were around 785-790 yuan/mt, also up 15-20 yuan/mt WoW from Friday. SMM shipping data showed that global iron ore shipments this week totaled 32.1 million mt, up 4.6% MoM. Australian shipments increased slightly by 3% MoM; Brazilian shipments were 5.36 million mt, down 9.4% MoM; non-mainstream mines saw a significant increase of 21.5% in shipments. China's total iron ore arrivals reached 29.17 million mt, up 33.38% MoM to a high level. Additionally, SMM predicts that daily average pig iron production will continue to grow by over 10,000 mt this week. Both supply and demand are strong. However, the continuous rebound in pig iron production and the continued growth in end-use consumption provided some support to ore prices. Furthermore, as last week's pessimistic sentiment was released, market sentiment improved this week, supporting a shift from weak to strong ore prices. Nevertheless, the ongoing news of production cuts and some market participants' expectations of negative feedback have limited the upward potential of iron ore prices.

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