Myanmar's Resumption of Production Is Expected to Coexist With Peak Consumption Season, and a Short-Term Sideways Movement Pattern May Persist [SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

Published: Mar 13, 2025 17:48

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[SMM Tin Market Brief: Coexistence of Myanmar's Resumption Expectations and Peak Consumption Season Support, Short-Term Sideways Movement Likely to Persist] The most-traded SHFE tin SN2504 contract closed at 264,640 yuan/mt, up 760 yuan/mt or 0.29% from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated between 263,030-266,210 yuan/mt, showing a high-level oscillation pattern. In the morning session, prices opened higher, boosted by a weaker US dollar and domestic policy support, but gains narrowed due to pressure from Myanmar's resumption expectations. Open interest increased by 478 lots to 30,389 lots, indicating intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Prices remained above the 20-day moving average, with the MACD indicator reflecting heightened tug-of-war and increased open interest signaling divergent capital views. In the short term, attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the resistance level at 265,000 yuan/mt and the support level at 260,000 yuan/mt...

Daily Review of SHFE Tin Futures Most-Traded Contract on March 13, 2025
The most-traded SHFE tin SN2504 contract closed at 264,640 yuan/mt, up 760 yuan/mt or 0.29% from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated between 263,030-266,210 yuan/mt, showing a high-level oscillation pattern. In the morning session, prices opened higher, supported by a weaker US dollar and favorable domestic policies, but gains narrowed due to the expected resumption of production in Myanmar. Open interest increased by 478 lots to 30,389 lots, indicating intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Prices remained above the 20-day moving average, and the MACD indicator reflected heightened tug-of-war between longs and shorts, with the increase in open interest signaling divergent capital views. In the short term, attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the resistance level at 265,000 yuan/mt and the support level at 260,000 yuan/mt.

Supply-Side Disturbances
Expected Resumption of Production in Myanmar: The anticipated resumption of production at Wa State tin mines has not yet materialized, and actual resumption would require at least a three-month preparation period, leaving the tight raw material supply situation unchanged in the short term.

Resumption of Exports in Indonesia: March tin exports are expected to fluctuate at low levels, as the slowdown in production during Ramadan hampers exports. Domestically, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi has rebounded to 63.25%, but processing fees near the cost line constrain capacity release.

Demand-Side Performance
End-Use Demand: Just-in-time procurement dominates in the fields of electronic solder, PV, and home appliances, with high prices suppressing restocking willingness. However, policies such as "trade-in" and high production schedules provide potential support for demand. Nonetheless, downstream sentiment remains cautious, and transactions are sluggish.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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