SMM March 13 News:
Price Review:
As of this Thursday, the SMM regional weighted index stood at 3,325 yuan/mt, down 56 yuan/mt WoW. Among them, Shandong reported 3,260-3,360 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt WoW; Henan reported 3,260-3,360 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt WoW; Shanxi reported 3,240-3,340 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt WoW; Guangxi reported 3,360-3,420 yuan/mt, flat WoW; Guizhou reported 3,360-3,470 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt WoW; Bayuquan reported 4,110-4,190 yuan/mt.
Overseas Market:
As of March 13, 2025, FOB Western Australia alumina prices were $425/mt, ocean freight rate was $20.55/mt, and the USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.26. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately 3,738 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, 413 yuan/mt higher than domestic alumina prices, keeping the alumina import window closed. Overseas spot alumina transaction prices fell more sharply than domestic spot alumina prices, significantly narrowing the loss margin for overseas alumina imports, though the import window remains far from opening.
This week, three new overseas spot alumina transactions were recorded:
1) On March 10, 30,000 mt of alumina was transacted at $480/mt FOB Vila Do Conde, Brazil, for late March/early April shipment;
2) On March 11, 35,000 mt of alumina was transacted at $440/mt FOB Kendawangan, Indonesia, for early April shipment;
3) On March 12, 30,000 mt of alumina was transacted at $425/mt FOB Western Australia or $420/mt FOB Gladstone, Eastern Australia, at the seller's discretion, for late April/early May shipment.
On the export side, based on Thursday's Shandong alumina
Domestic Market:
According to SMM data, as of this Thursday, the total installed capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina nationwide was 105.02 million mt, with an operating capacity of 88.26 million mt. The national weekly operating rate of alumina decreased by 0.8 percentage points WoW to 84.04%. Among them, Shandong's weekly operating rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points WoW to 91.13%; Shanxi's weekly operating rate decreased by 2.34 percentage points WoW to 76.66%; Henan's weekly operating rate remained flat WoW at 67.62%; Guangxi's weekly operating rate increased by 1.51 percentage points WoW to 89.77%. During the period, the frequency of spot alumina transactions increased, and the center of spot transaction prices shifted downward. In Xinjiang, aluminum plants tendered for some alumina, with transaction prices at 3,520-3,540 yuan/mt delivered to the plant. In Henan, 11,000 mt of spot alumina was transacted at 3,230-3,260 yuan/mt. In Shandong, 5,000 mt of spot alumina was transacted at 3,260 yuan/mt. In Shanxi, 2,000 mt of spot alumina was transacted at 3,220 yuan/mt. Additionally, some traders supplied a small amount of alumina to aluminum plants in north-west China, with ex-factory prices in Shanxi quoted at 3,200 yuan/mt.
Overall:
Recently, the tug-of-war between alumina buyers and sellers continued, with sporadic spot transactions in the alumina spot market and further slight declines in transaction prices, centering around 3,200-3,300 yuan/mt. The domestic alumina export window remains closed, and the total registered warrant volume in alumina futures delivery warehouses has exceeded 200,000 mt. Subsequent alumina exports and transfers to delivery warehouses may struggle to provide sustained demand. Fundamentals side, short-term alumina operating capacity is expected to fluctuate, with no significant decline in total operating capacity anticipated. This week, the national operating capacity of alumina was 88.26 million mt. The alumina market remains in a slight surplus, and spot alumina prices are likely to fluctuate downward in the short term.
![February Primary Aluminum Billet Operating Rates Hit a Nearly Four-Year Low [SMM Analysis]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/production/admin/votes/imagesSDWVM20240508153016.png)
