[SMM HRC Weekly Balance & Social Inventory Overview] Weak Supply and Strong Demand, Social Inventory Continues to Decline

Published: Mar 13, 2025 14:20

Save

[SMM HRC Weekly Balance & Social Inventory Analysis] Weak Supply and Strong Demand, Social Inventory Continues to Decline Environmental protection combined with new maintenance plans at some steel mills led to a significant reduction in HRC supply. During this period, HRC futures first dipped and then rebounded. The price increase stimulated purchasing enthusiasm in the market, resulting in weak supply and strong demand, with an expanded decline in social inventory. Looking ahead, additional maintenance plans are still expected at some steel mills, keeping supply pressure relatively small in the short term. End-use demand remains resilient, and nationwide social inventory is expected to continue declining in the short term...

Ø Weekly Balance of HRC

Ø Accumulation of Total HRC Inventory Before and After Chinese New Year (Small Sample)

This week, total HRC inventory stood at 4.0775 million mt, down 15,000 mt WoW (-0.37%) and -8.65% YoY, but up 0.58% on a lunar YoY basis.

Ø Production Continued to Decline WoW

This week, HRC production decreased WoW due to maintenance and environmental protection-driven production restrictions at some steel mills.

Ø Social Inventory of HRC Continued to Decline This Week

This week, SMM statistics showed that the social inventory of HRC across 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) was 4.4704 million mt, down 85,500 mt WoW (-1.88%) but up 1.23% on a lunar YoY basis. Nationwide social inventory continued to decline this week, with the reduction expanding. By region, the South China and East China markets saw larger declines, while the Central, North, and Northeast China markets fluctuated rangebound. Specifically:

l [Shanghai] Inventory Increased in Shanghai This Week

This week, HRC inventory in Shanghai was 374,600 mt, up 23,900 mt WoW (+6.81%), with a YoY decline of 14.18% and a lunar YoY decline of 1.29%.

l [Lecong] Inventory in Lecong Continued to Decline

This week, HRC inventory in Lecong was 102,630 mt, down 47,000 mt WoW (-4.38%), with a lunar YoY increase of 33,700 mt (+3.40%).

l [Zhangjiagang] Inventory in Zhangjiagang Continued to Decline This Week

This week, HRC inventory in Zhangjiagang was 434,000 mt, down 13,000 mt WoW (-2.91%), with a YoY decline of 10.88% and a lunar YoY increase of 6.37%.

Environmental protection measures combined with new maintenance plans at some steel mills significantly reduced HRC supply. During the week, futures prices first fell and then rose, stimulating purchasing enthusiasm amid the price increase trend. With weak supply and strong demand, the reduction in social inventory expanded. Looking ahead, additional maintenance plans at steel mills are expected, keeping supply pressure relatively small in the short term. End-use demand remains resilient, and nationwide social inventory is expected to continue declining in the short term.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

19 mins ago

[NEMO Selects ENERGIRON Technology for Louisiana DRI Project]

NEMO Industries has selected the ENERGIRON direct reduced iron technology jointly developed by Tenova and Danieli for its planned Ironworks pig iron project in Louisiana. The proposed plant will have annual capacity of 2.5 million tonnes of hot and cold high-carbon DRI to supply electric smelting-based pig iron production. It will also include the HYTEMP hot DRI transport system and be designed for future carbon capture and hydrogen integration. Tenova will begin front-end engineering design, with a final investment decision expected in December 2027.

19 mins ago

[SMM Steel] Mills Hold Firm on Prices Driving Slight Gains; European HRC Trades Firmly Rangebound During Summer Lull

[EU] European hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices edged slightly higher today, primarily driven by strong willingness among steelmakers to hold firm on prices, although some room for negotiation remains between buyers and sellers. Currently, most producers have completed their Q3 production scheduling, and their strong pricing stance has established a firm bottom support at 830 USD/tonne EXW. On the supply and demand front, despite sluggish end-user demand, EU blast furnace capacity utilization saw a slight month-on-month increase. The Southern European market has fully entered summer holiday mode, with some fully-booked mills taking the opportunity to withdraw their offers. On the import side, buyers' procurement willingness remains low due to concerns over the potential exhaustion of Q4 import quotas. Among them, Indian offers to Europe held steady at 650 USD/tonne CFR, while Italian import quotes remained firm at 570 USD/tonne CIF.

19 mins ago

20 mins ago

[SMM Steel] Black Sea Shipping Disruptions Push Up Freight Rates; Turkish Billet Imports Pivot Toward Overland

[Turkey] Driven by frequent attacks on merchant vessels in the Black Sea and surging freight costs, shipping rates from the Russian Black Sea to Turkey have reached approximately 40 USD/tonne, prompting buyers to largely halt new order placements from the Black Sea region. This supply bottleneck pushed Turkish steel billet import quotes slightly higher to 490 USD/tonne CFR. However, with domestic finished steel demand remaining sluggish and mill capacity utilization running low, buyers have not engaged in panic procurement. Against this backdrop, Turkish buyers are substantively adjusting their procurement strategies, with delivered prices for Iranian billets via rail recently stabilizing at 480–485 USD/tonne.

20 mins ago