February Auto Production and Sales Up Over 30% YoY, Will This Year's NEV Production and Sales Reach 16 Million Units? [SMM Special]

On March 11, 2025, CAAM released the operational data of the automotive industry for February 2025, while the Passenger Car Association (PCA) had earlier published relevant data on the passenger car market for February 2025. According to CAAM, after the Chinese New Year in February, corporate production and business activities accelerated, with new product launches and promotional activities competing to take place, significantly boosting market vitality. Auto production and sales in February saw rapid YoY growth. SMM has compiled relevant data on the power battery and NEV markets for February 2025 for readers' reference.

Automotive Sector

CAAM: Auto Production and Sales in February Up Over 34% YoY; January-February Growth Exceeds 13%

In February, auto production and sales reached 2.103 million and 2.129 million units, respectively, down 14.1% and 12.2% MoM, but up 39.6% and 34.4% YoY, respectively. From January to February, auto production and sales totaled 4.553 million and 4.552 million units, up 16.2% and 13.1% YoY, respectively. The growth rate of auto production expanded by 14.5 percentage points compared to January, while sales growth expanded by 13.7 percentage points.

CAAM: NEV Production and Sales in February Up 91.5% and 87.1% YoY; January-February NEV Production and Sales Both Up 52% YoY

In February, NEV production and sales reached 888,000 and 892,000 units, up 91.5% and 87.1% YoY, respectively, with NEV sales accounting for 41.9% of total new car sales. From January to February, NEV production and sales totaled 1.903 million and 1.835 million units, both up 52% YoY, with NEV sales accounting for 40.3% of total new car sales.

CAAM: Auto Exports in February Down 6.2% MoM, Up 16.9% YoY

According to CAAM, auto exports in February reached 441,000 units, down 6.2% MoM, but up 16.9% YoY. NEV exports in February reached 131,000 units, down 12.6% MoM, but up 60.5% YoY. From January to February, auto exports totaled 911,000 units, up 10.9% YoY, while NEV exports reached 282,000 units, up 54.5% YoY. The PCA also released data on the passenger car market for February 2025. According to PCA, retail sales in the national passenger car market reached 1.386 million units in February,

up 26.0% YoY, but down 22.8% MoM. Cumulative retail sales from January to February reached 3.179 million units, up 1.2% YoY. Retail sales in February were at a historical high for the month, and cumulative sales from January to February returned to positive growth, showing strong market performance. In the NEV sector, retail sales of passenger NEVs reached 686,000 units in February, up 79.7% YoY but down 7.8% MoM. Cumulative retail sales from January to February reached 1.43 million units, up 35.5%.

In terms of exports, PCA noted that with the scale advantage of China's NEVs becoming evident and market expansion demand growing, Chinese-made NEV brands are increasingly gaining recognition overseas. Despite recent external disruptions, the export of self-owned plug-in hybrids to developing countries has grown rapidly, with a promising outlook. In February, passenger NEV exports reached 118,000 units,

up 27.8% YoY, but down 15.2% MoM. Passenger NEV exports accounted for 33.9% of total passenger car exports, up 4.4 percentage points YoY. Among these, pure electric vehicles accounted for 59% of NEV exports (84% in the same period last year), with A0+A00-class pure electric vehicles, the core focus, accounting for 50% of NEV exports (31% in the same period last year). Regarding the passenger car market in February 2025, PCA commented that since the Chinese New Year fell on January 29, 2025, February marked the start of post-holiday activities. With the gradual implementation of scrappage and renewal policies, along with automakers actively stabilizing price expectations, the overall price war in the car market was milder than in previous years. According to PCA's tracking data, the promotional intensity in the passenger car market was the strongest in 2023, increasing by 5.7 percentage points, while it slowed to 3.2 percentage points in 2024.

In January-February 2025, promotional intensity further weakened, especially in the internal combustion engine vehicle market, where price promotions remained relatively stable. Recent changes in the domestic and overseas macro environment exceeded expectations, and consumer sentiment remained relatively stable. Combined with automakers' marketing efforts during the Chinese New Year and the low sales base in February last year, the car market in February 2025 outperformed the sluggish post-holiday performance of 2024, achieving a strong start to the year. PCA highlighted the following characteristics of the passenger car market in February 2025:

1. Passenger car wholesale and exports in February both hit record highs, as automakers strived to achieve a strong start in post-holiday sales. 2. Retail sales of passenger cars fell by 245,000 units YoY in January 2025 but increased by 280,000 units YoY in February, resulting in a cumulative 1.2% positive growth in domestic retail sales for January-February 2025. 3. The price war was relatively mild, with promotional discounts for traditional internal combustion engine vehicles at 21.7% in February, down 0.2 percentage points MoM. Promotional discounts for non-direct sales NEVs gradually reached a high of 12.5%, up 1.6 percentage points MoM. 4. The wholesale market share of self-owned passenger car brands exceeded 70% in February, while their domestic retail market share surpassed 65%, both up by approximately 11 percentage points YoY. 5. Inventory levels stabilized in February 2025, with automakers' inventory decreasing by 40,000 units, while channel inventory increased by 30,000 units, resulting in a net inventory reduction of 10,000 units. In contrast, total inventory (automakers and channels) decreased by 170,000 units YoY in the same period last year. 6. The domestic retail penetration rate of NEVs rebounded to 49.5% in February, mainly driven by scrappage and trade-in policies boosting NEV growth. 7. From January to February 2025, self-owned internal combustion engine passenger car exports reached 420,000 units, down 5% YoY from 440,000 units in the same period last year. Self-owned NEV exports grew by 111%, with NEVs accounting for 35% of self-owned exports, while internal combustion engine vehicles remained the core export driver. Power Battery Sector

Power and Other Battery Sales in February 2025 Reached 90.0 GWh, Up 140.7% YoY

In February, China's power and other battery sales reached 90.0 GWh, up 12.0% MoM

and 140.7% YoY. Among these, power battery sales reached 66.9 GWh, accounting for 74.3% of total sales, up 6.4% MoM and 98.8% YoY. Other battery sales reached 23.1 GWh, accounting for 25.7% of total sales, up 32.2% MoM and significantly YoY. From January to February, cumulative sales of power and other batteries in China reached 170.4 GWh,

up 80.3% YoY. Among these, cumulative power battery sales reached 129.8 GWh, accounting for 76.2% of total sales, up 54.3% YoY. Other battery sales reached 40.6 GWh, accounting for 23.8% of total sales, up 291.1% YoY. China's Power Battery Installations in February 2025 Reached 34.9 GWh, Up 94.1% YoY

In February, China's power battery installations reached 34.9 GWh, down 10.1% MoM

but up 94.1% YoY. Among these, ternary battery installations reached 6.4 GWh, accounting for 18.5% of total installations, down 24.6% MoM and 7.2% YoY. LFP battery installations reached 28.4 GWh, accounting for 81.5% of total installations, down 6.0% MoM but up 158.0% YoY. From January to February, cumulative power battery installations in China reached 73.6 GWh,

up 46.5% YoY. Among these, cumulative ternary battery installations reached 15.0 GWh, accounting for 20.4% of total installations, down 23.3% YoY. Cumulative LFP battery installations reached 58.6 GWh, accounting for 79.6% of total installations, up 199.9% YoY. BYD Continues to "Dominate" in February; Xiaomi's New Car Sparks Over 300 Million Discussions!

Recently, several automakers released their February auto sales data. According to statistics from CLS, all 12 A/H-share listed automakers achieved YoY growth in February sales. Among them, BYD, XPeng Motors, Leap Motor, and BAIC BluePark achieved multiple-fold growth.

As the leader in the EV sector, BYD continued to "dominate" in January, securing the top spot in auto sales with 322,800 units,

up 163.95% YoY. Market expectations suggest that following the launch of its advanced intelligent driving system "Eye of the God" in February, along with new intelligent driving versions of several car models, BYD's overall sales performance may further improve. Among emerging automakers, XPeng Motors continued to lead the gains in March with over 30,000 units sold. In February 2025, XPeng Motors delivered 30,453 new cars, up 570% YoY.

XPeng Motors has achieved monthly deliveries exceeding 30,000 units for four consecutive months. From January to February 2025, XPeng Motors cumulatively delivered 60,803 new cars, up 375% YoY. For Li Auto, the company delivered 26,263 new cars in February 2025, up 29.7% YoY. As of February 28, 2025, Li Auto's cumulative historical deliveries reached 1.1901 million units.

For Leap Motor, February deliveries reached 25,287 units, up 285% YoY, highlighting Leap Motor's growing competitiveness and trust in the NEV market.

For NIO, the company delivered 13,192 new cars in February, up 62.2% YoY. Among these, the NIO brand delivered 9,143 new cars, up 12.4% YoY, while the ALPS brand delivered 4,049 new cars. To date, NIO has cumulatively delivered 698,619 new cars, including 667,897 units under the NIO brand and 30,722 units under the ALPS brand.

Although BAIC BluePark's February sales were only 6,227 units, a modest figure compared to other emerging automakers, its YoY growth surged by 401.77%, demonstrating its undeniable strength.

For Xiaomi Auto, February deliveries of the Xiaomi SU 7 exceeded 20,000 units again. The Xiaomi SU 7 has achieved monthly deliveries exceeding 20,000 units for five consecutive months, with cumulative deliveries surpassing 180,000 units. On February 27, the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra was officially launched, priced at 529,900 yuan, with a deposit of 20,000 yuan refundable within seven days if not locked in. Orders placed before 24:00 on March 31 will enjoy benefits worth up to 90,000 yuan. The prototype of this car, boasting an impressive 1,548 PS horsepower, ranked eighth in the 2025 global top 10 high-performance cars by horsepower, yet its price is considered a "bargain" among the top 10 models. As a result, the car's launch sparked widespread discussion on social media, further cementing Xiaomi's reputation as a traffic magnet.

Regarding the auto market in February,

CAAM commented that after the Chinese New Year, corporate production and business activities accelerated, with new product launches and promotional activities competing to take place, significantly boosting market vitality. Auto production and sales in February saw rapid YoY growth. From January to February, a new round of trade-in policies was expanded and implemented early, while corporate technological upgrades and product renewals stimulated demand, leading to steady growth in overall auto production and sales. Among them, passenger vehicles continued to perform well, the commercial vehicle market showed signs of recovery, and NEVs stood out with rapid growth in production and sales. The strong start of the automotive industry laid a solid foundation for achieving a good performance in Q1. Looking ahead to March, the Passenger Car Association (PCA) estimates that March 2025 will have 21 working days, the same as March last year. With industries quickly resuming normal operations after the Chinese New Year holiday, production and sales are expected to see significant MoM growth in March. The post-holiday period is a key time for new product launches, with many producers introducing new car models in large numbers. Under the impetus of national consumption-boosting policies, many provinces and cities have introduced corresponding measures, and the full resumption of offline activities such as auto shows will further attract consumer attention. Additionally, the recent low prices of lithium carbonate and other materials are favorable for producers to continuously optimize the cost structure and product iteration of NEV models, further heating up market interest. Moreover, the PCA also predicts that automotive industry policy subsidies and incentives in 2025 will reach new highs, becoming a key factor in driving overall market prosperity and accelerating the transition of NEV consumption to mass adoption. The expansion of scrappage policies is expected to result in 5 million scrappage renewals this year, with scrappage subsidies amounting to approximately 90 billion yuan. Meanwhile, stable and effective trade-in policies across regions are expected to facilitate 10 million vehicle replacements, amounting to nearly 130 billion yuan. In the NEV sector, the PCA stated that NEV production and sales this year are estimated at around 16 million units, generating over 2 trillion yuan in sales revenue. 2025 marks the final year of the vehicle purchase tax exemption policy, and under the current market size for new car sales, it is estimated to provide a tax exemption benefit of approximately 200 billion yuan. Combined, this amounts to a scale of over 400 billion yuan, which, compared to the 5 trillion yuan in auto sales, represents an unprecedented level of subsidy support, providing historically strong backing for market development. On March 8, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) published an article stating that since August last year, the Canadian government has introduced a series of trade restrictions targeting Chinese imports, including a 100% tax surcharge on EVs imported from China. On the same day, the Ministry of Commerce issued its first anti-discrimination investigation ruling against Canada (Ministry of Commerce Announcement No. 11 of 2025). CAAM believes that the Ministry of Commerce's ruling on Canada's restrictive measures against China complies with WTO rules and is a normal measure to safeguard industry development. CAAM firmly supports the decision outlined in the announcement. Additionally, it emphasized that the development of China's EV industry is based on its comparative advantages and is the result of open competition. Chinese EVs are welcomed by global consumers, including those in Canada, and contribute significantly to global efforts to combat climate change and achieve green transitions. The association hopes that the Chinese government will continue to strengthen communication and consultations with relevant Canadian parties to jointly maintain global trade and economic cooperation order, contributing positively to the sustainable development of the global automotive industry and energy transition. This week coincides with the Two Sessions. As a pillar industry in China, the automotive manufacturing sector accounted for a larger share of GDP than real estate in 2023. In recent years, national support for the automotive sector has been continuously increasing. During the Two Sessions, representatives and committee members actively proposed suggestions related to the automotive industry, NEVs, solid-state batteries, ESS, and other related fields. SMM has compiled the proposals from this year's Two Sessions, which can be accessed in detail via "Overview of Two Sessions Proposals for the Automotive Industry: Covering Orderly Competition in the Auto Market, Optimization of NEV License Plate Design, and More..."