The Main Theme of Domestic Favourable Macro Front Remains Unchanged, SHFE Aluminum Prices Showed a "V-Shaped" Rebound Today [SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Review]

Published: Mar 11, 2025 15:11

Save

[SMM Futures Aluminum Brief Review: Domestic Favourable Macro Front Remains the Main Theme, SHFE Aluminum Prices Showed a "V-Shaped" Rebound Today] Macro side, the endless tariff disputes have sparked concerns about a potential recession in the US economy. The market is also focusing on the US Consumer Price Index data to be released on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index data on Thursday. Traders have now fully priced in the possibility of a US interest rate cut in June. Fundamentals side, domestic aluminum production resumption is progressing, and capacity will be released by the end of March. Inventory side, after the weekend, domestic aluminum ingot destocking resumed, making the turning point of domestic aluminum ingot destocking almost clear. Coupled with the "Golden March and Silver April" period, the operating rates of aluminum processing enterprises in the peak season continued to rebound, strengthening support for aluminum consumption.

》View SMM Aluminum Product Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis

SMM, March 11:

Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2504 contract opened at 20,905 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,925 yuan/mt, a low of 20,615 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,845 yuan/mt, down 0.12%. Trading volume was 17 lots, and open interest was 172,000 lots.

SMM Comments: On the macro side, endless tariff disputes have raised concerns about a potential US economic recession. The market is also focusing on the US Consumer Price Index data to be released on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index on Thursday. Traders have fully priced in the possibility of a US interest rate cut in June. Fundamentals side, domestic aluminum production resumption is progressing, with capacity expected to be released by the end of March. Inventory side, after the weekend, domestic aluminum ingot destocking resumed, making the turning point of domestic aluminum ingot destocking clearer. Coupled with the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, operating rates of aluminum processing enterprises continued to rebound, strengthening support for aluminum consumption. Overall, the macro side remains mixed, with domestic macro favorable factors unchanged, while overseas trade barriers are increasing but remain highly uncertain. Fundamentals side, both supply and demand are increasing. During the peak consumption season, most sectors saw a rebound in order volumes and operating rates. Combined with the destocking of aluminum ingot social inventory, aluminum prices are supported to some extent. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to hover at highs, with attention on the key resistance level of 21,000 yuan/mt.

Today, the most-traded alumina 2505 contract opened at 3,195 yuan/mt, with a high of 3,215 yuan/mt, a low of 3,173 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,190 yuan/mt, down 0.93%. Trading volume was 110,000 lots, and open interest was 197,000 lots.

SMM Comments: Recently, the tug-of-war between alumina buyers and sellers continued, with sluggish spot alumina transactions and spot prices remaining stable. Overseas alumina transaction prices further declined, and the domestic alumina export window has closed, making it difficult for alumina exports to provide sustained demand in the future. Fundamentals side, no large-scale production cuts have been reported in alumina operating capacity, and the alumina market remains in a slight surplus. Spot alumina prices are expected to fluctuate downward in the short term.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

23 hours ago

Fed Governor Milan Pushes for Over 100 Basis Points Cut, Contradicts Barkin on Caution

Federal Reserve Governor Milan pointed out that it is necessary for the US Fed to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. At the same time, he is very much looking forward to the performance of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman. However, Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized that monetary policy must remain cautious until inflation fully pulls back to the target level, thereby ensuring the stability of the labour market.

23 hours ago

Democratic Senators Demand Delay in Fed Nomination Amid Criminal Investigation

All 11 Democratic members of the US Senate Banking Committee jointly sent a letter to the committee's chairman, Tim Scott, requesting that all nomination processes for the prospective Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, be postponed until the criminal investigation into current Fed Chairman Powell and other board members is concluded. However, Scott stated that Warsh's confirmation was a done deal.

23 hours ago

Fed to Keep Large Banks' Capital Levels Unchanged, Postpones Stress Test Reforms Until 2027

The US Fed has announced that it will maintain the capital levels of large banks unchanged during the upcoming stress test cycle (corresponding to the 2026 cycle). At the same time, the US Fed is planning multidimensional reforms to this annual test, aiming to enhance its transparency. The US Fed's Vice Chair for Supervision, Bowman, revealed that adjustments to the stress capital buffer requirements for large banks will be postponed until 2027. This move is intended to provide the US Fed with sufficient time to evaluate potential flaws that may be exposed in its testing models when assessing banks' financial conditions under simulated economic downturn scenarios.

23 hours ago