》Check SMM Aluminum Product Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis

SMM, March 6:

Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2504 contract opened at 20,710 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,940 yuan/mt, a low of 20,705 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,865 yuan/mt, up 0.77%. Trading volume was 153,000 lots, and open interest was 200,000 lots.

SMM Comments: On the macro side, Trump announced a delay in some auto tariffs. However, due to the uncertainty of tariffs, the market is concerned about their impact on inflation and the economy. The US dollar index fell below the 105 mark, hitting a near four-month low of 104.33, releasing upward momentum for base metals. During the Two Sessions, favorable news emerged, including policies to boost domestic demand and stabilize housing prices, with a generally accommodative policy stance. Fundamentals side, cost support showed signs of stabilization, coupled with a steady recovery in downstream operating rates ahead of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April." Focus should be placed on the sustained realization of March end-use consumption demand. Inventory side, domestic aluminum ingot inventory achieved mid-week destocking of 15,000 mt today, potentially signaling a gradual turning point in inventory levels. Supply side pressure is expected to ease gradually. SMM believes that driven by macro sentiment and trading expectations, SHFE aluminum remains more likely to rise than fall. However, concerns over intensified overseas trade frictions persist. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Two Sessions policies. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate upward at high levels.

Today, the most-traded alumina 2505 contract opened at 3,268 yuan/mt, with a high of 3,311 yuan/mt, a low of 3,265 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,283 yuan/mt, up 0.52%. Trading volume was 63,000 lots, and open interest was 186,000 lots.

SMM Comments: Recently, domestic spot alumina prices have stopped falling, mainly due to increased demand for alumina exports and transfer to delivery warehouse, which has supported alumina prices. In the short term, spot alumina prices in some regions have rebounded slightly. However, overseas alumina prices have declined, and the export window is essentially closed. Alumina transfer to delivery warehouse cannot provide sustained demand, and the market expects some new alumina capacity to gradually come online. From a medium and long-term perspective, spot alumina prices remain under pressure. In the short term, spot alumina prices may enter a phase of fluctuating adjustments. Continuous attention should be paid to alumina export profitability and changes in bauxite prices.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]