[SMM Rebar Daily Review] Will Spot Prices Rise as Production Cuts Resurface?

Affected by rumors of a small essay, rebar futures experienced significant fluctuations today. The most-traded 2505 contract reached a high of 3,299 and a low of 3,254, closing at 3,282 yuan/mt, up 0.43% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, prices in most regions remained stable in the morning, with moderate trading at lower prices. In the afternoon, the futures market saw larger fluctuations, leading to more cautious sentiment and weaker trading compared to the morning. Fundamentally, construction steel production increased slightly this week, and inventory shifted from an increase to a decrease. According to SMM survey statistics, total rebar inventory was 8.0352 million mt, down 36,200 mt WoW (-0.45%), and down 35.12% YoY. Overall, both supply and demand for building materials are increasing, with inventory at a relatively low level, indicating a moderate fundamental situation. However, rumors of crude steel production cuts have affected market sentiment, and it is expected that building material prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term.