According to SMM on February 28, the metal content of Indonesian NPI in February 2025 decreased by approximately 7.32% MoM and increased by about 14.85% YoY. Although the RKAB in Indonesia had clear approval quotas in February, the release from mines was relatively limited. Coupled with the fact that smelters in major production areas had already consumed previous nickel ore inventories and entered a stage of concentrated procurement, the premium for Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore rose in the short term. This pushed up the cost of producing high-grade NPI, compressing smelter profits and limiting overall production momentum. Additionally, a smelter in a major production area experienced significant losses, with some production lines entering a management optimization phase. The depletion of previous nickel ore inventories led to a sharp decline in overall production compared to earlier periods, resulting in a drop in the metal content of Indonesian NPI in February.
It is expected that in March 2025, the metal content of Indonesian NPI will increase by approximately 1.54% MoM and rise by about 14.8% YoY. During March, Indonesia will enter Ramadan, and changes in weather leading to increased rainfall may restrict the release from nickel mines, while the production load of smelters may decline. According to the SMM survey, production days in major production areas increased compared to February, but there was no significant rise in output. Moreover, some production lines underwent concentrated maintenance of power equipment, and the output of certain lines still under management optimization remained at low levels. On the other hand, the insufficient supply of high-grade nickel ore in Indonesia led to a decline in the grade of NPI across various production areas. As a result, the slight increase in overall production mainly stemmed from ramping up of new capacity and some capacity capable of switching to high-grade nickel matte shifting to high-grade NPI as the primary product, driving a modest increase in production.
