This week, rebar spot prices initially declined and then rebounded, but the nationwide average price fell WoW. During the week, rumors circulated about a 50 million mt steel production control target for 2025, which led to a rapid surge in futures prices, heightened market sentiment, and increased speculative demand, with terminal procurement also expanding.
On the fundamentals, this week saw both new restarts and maintenance at blast furnace steel mills, keeping production relatively stable, while the operating rate of short-process mills continued to rise, resulting in a slight overall supply increase. On the demand side, recovery in south China outpaced that in the north, with end-use demand intensity continuing to improve, while speculative demand was more influenced by sentiment.
In terms of inventory, total rebar inventory this week reached 8.0714 million mt, up 1.76% WoW, with the growth rate continuing to narrow. Notably, in-plant inventory has shifted from increasing to decreasing, mainly due to the moderate resumption of direct deliveries by some steel mills.
Looking ahead, the Two Sessions are set to convene next week, with market expectations weaker than before. Additionally, as March begins, demand in the north is expected to recover rapidly. With supply remaining relatively stable, the gradual recovery in demand intensity is likely to provide some support for spot prices. However, after the meetings conclude, market sentiment may ease, leading to spot price adjustments within a certain range. Rebar spot prices are expected to stabilize initially and then weaken next week, while the most-traded RB2505 rebar futures contract is likely to fluctuate rangebound between 3,200-3,400.
