Macro Bullish Factors Nearing the End, Silver Prices Pull Back from Highs [SMM Silver Market Weekly Review]

On February 28, 2025, Trump announced that the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico would take effect as scheduled on March 4, while threatening to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2 to further pressure trading partners. As the end of February approached, bullish market news gradually dissipated. US Fed officials frequently adopted hawkish tones, and attention remains on the PCE data to be released today. During the strengthening of the US dollar, silver prices pulled back. In the short term, with no new stimuli, silver prices are expected to fluctuate downward.

【Economic Data】 Bearish: US January durable goods orders MoM at 3.1% (previous: -1.8%, forecast: 2%).

Bullish: Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 22 in the US were 242,000, higher than both the forecast and the previous figure. US API crude oil inventory for the week ending February 21 was reported at -640,000 barrels (forecast: 2.493 million barrels, previous: 3.339 million barrels). US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending February 21 was -2.332 million barrels (previous: 4.633 million barrels, forecast: 2.605 million barrels).

【Spot Market】 Silver: This week, the premiums and discounts for self pick-up tonnage-grade national standard spot silver ingots in the Shanghai region ranged from -1 yuan/kg to +1 yuan/mt, while large manufacturers quoted premiums and discounts of 2-3 yuan/kg. In the Shenzhen region, national standard premiums and discounts were quoted at 2 yuan/kg. On Wednesday, the spot-futures price spread for the SHFE silver April contract narrowed, and premiums and discounts in the spot market were adjusted downward. However, as the weekend and month-end approached, some traders sold out their inventories and closed accounts, leading to a rebound in premiums and discounts for circulating supplies. This week, silver prices pulled back from high levels, and traders' enthusiasm for buying the dip increased, resulting in significantly improved market transactions compared to last week. PV: This week, the reference average price for solar cell rear-side silver paste was 5,156-5,274 yuan/kg; for solar cell front-side finger, it was 7,768-7,946 yuan/kg; and for solar cell front-side busbar, it was 7,718-7,896 yuan/kg. This week, silver prices pulled back, downstream buying the dip increased, but the recovery in production was limited, and overall market transactions remained sluggish.

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