Overseas Zinc Mine Production Declined MoM in 2024, What Is Expected in 2025? [SMM Analysis]

SMM February 27 News: Recently, Q4 financial reports of overseas listed miners have been released. How did overseas zinc mines perform in 2024? In H1, extreme weather continuously disrupted the operations of overseas mines. In H2, although some new mines were gradually commissioned, the incremental output was limited. Coupled with declining grades at some overseas mines, multiple factors collectively led to a significant decrease in overseas zinc ore production in 2024 compared to 2023. SMM conducted a production analysis of 16 major overseas miners. According to disclosed financial data, the total zinc ore production of these 16 miners in 2024 was 4.4724 million mt, significantly lower than 4.6387 million mt in 2023, down 3.6% YoY. By miner: Boliden: In Q4 2024, zinc production was 41,600 mt, with total production for 2024 at 164,100 mt, down 16% YoY. The report disclosed that zinc concentrate production at The Boliden Area in Sweden was 48,700 mt in 2024, up 6.08% YoY. The Tara mine resumed production in Q4 2024, with an annual output of 6,300 mt. The Garpenberg mine in Sweden produced 109,100 mt in 2024, up 13.45% YoY. Overall, the Tara mine contributed the main reduction in 2024. Buenaventura: Zinc ore production in 2024 was 28,500 mt, up 13.77% YoY. The report disclosed that zinc concentrate production at the El Brocal mine in Peru was 2,000 mt in 2024, down 88.4% YoY, as the mine's resources were depleted in Q1 2024, ceasing production from Q2. The Uchucchacua mine in Peru restarted in Q4 2023, with zinc ore production of 21,200 mt in 2024. The Tambomayo mine in Peru produced 530 mt of zinc ore in 2024, basically flat compared to the previous year. Overall, the Uchucchacua mine contributed the main increase in 2024. Lundin: Zinc concentrate production at Zinkgruvan in Sweden was 82,100 mt in 2024, up 7.58% YoY, achieving record production due to higher throughput, grades, and recovery rates, meeting the previously announced 2024 production guidance. Zinc concentrate production at Neves-Corvo in Portugal was 109,600 mt in 2024, up 0.7% MoM, benefiting from increased throughput due to an expansion project but slightly below the annual production guidance range. MMG: Zinc concentrate production in 2024 was 219,900 mt, up 8.08% MoM. Among this, Dugald River produced 163,600 mt, and Rosebery produced 56,300 mt. Their 2025 production guidance is 170,000-185,000 mt and 45,000-55,000 mt, respectively. Newmont: Zinc concentrate production in 2024 was 258,100 mt, up 147% YoY, mainly due to the recovery of production at Peñasquito, which had been previously affected by strikes. The mine's 2025 production guidance is 236,000 mt. Nexa: Total zinc concentrate production in 2024 was 327,000 mt, down 1.8% YoY. Nexa sold, transferred, and assigned all rights, ownership, and interests in the Morro Agudo mining area to Casa Verde, ceasing mining activities under Nexa as of April 30, 2024. However, the ramp-up at Aripuanã in 2024 offset part of the reduction. Pan American Silver Corp: Total zinc concentrate production in 2024 was 45,100 mt, up 16.2% YoY, basically achieving the previously announced 2024 production guidance. The miner's 2025 zinc ore production guidance is 42,000-45,000 mt. Teck: Zinc concentrate production at Red Dog in 2024 was 555,600 mt, up 2.93% YoY. However, due to declining zinc ore grades, the mine's production guidance for 2025 is 430,000-470,000 mt, for 2026 is 410,000-460,000 mt, and for 2027 is 365,000-400,000 mt, with production expected to continue declining. Vedanta: Zinc concentrate production at Zinc India in 2024 totaled 1.083 million mt, basically flat YoY. Zinc International's zinc concentrate production saw a significant decline, with BMM mine producing 46,000 mt in 2024, down 27% YoY, and Gamsberg mine producing 114,000 mt in 2024, down 34.5% YoY. Glencore: Total self-produced zinc production in 2024 was 905,000 mt, down 1.5% YoY, slightly exceeding the lower end of the 2024 production guidance. Antamina: Zinc concentrate production in 2024 was 267,900 mt, down nearly 200,000 mt YoY. According to production guidance, the mine's zinc concentrate output in 2025 is expected to recover to over 400,000 mt annually but will drop again to around 260,000 mt in 2026. Market Outlook: 2025 is expected to be the peak year for overseas zinc ore production release. Regarding major increments, the Oz mine, commissioned in Q4 2024, had minimal output in 2024 but is now stabilizing production, with small batches of zinc ore already entering the domestic market in Q1. Its production is expected to gradually release in 2025. The Kipushi mine's 2025 zinc ore production guidance is 180,000-240,000 mt, an increase of 130,000-190,000 mt compared to 50,000 mt in 2024, showing significant growth. According to production guidance, Antamina's 2025 production is expected to increase by approximately 170,000 mt MoM. The Tara mine, which resumed production in Q4 2024, is expected to return to full capacity in 2025, with production likely to increase by over 90,000 mt. Based on the above data, overseas zinc ore production in 2025 could increase by over 500,000 mt optimistically. If these mines release production smoothly, it is expected to start entering the domestic market from Q2, significantly supplementing the domestic zinc ore market. 》View SMM Metal Industry Chain Database